world cup today hedge or not

[bases]

have a futures on argentina to win world cup
played 100 to win 625
cashout is 221

anyway to play france today and still profit..so basically hedging
new to hedging
what amount would i need to play for a profit if i were to play france today

thanks

 

[Snafu]

i'm in same position except with France to win +600...

i let it ride as it is :0003


if you have +625 coming if Argentina wins, play 100 to France +100 to win to get even if Argentina doesn't win (and win $100 less if they do).

More than that for sure profit (that again cuts your possible winnings if Argentina actually wins).

In long term hedging cuts your profits :0008

 

[LA Burns]

if you do hedge make sure you bet on france to hoist cup/win game as opposed to the 90 minute line

though more expensive you could also play france + 0.5 in regular time and hope argentina wins in extra time or pk’s

second option not optimal but at least leaves option of winning both - with first option you could bet 362.50 on france at even and assure a profit of 262.50, or bet more or less depending on your risk tolerance or who you think will take it home today

gl - burns

 

[Crookity]

Burns is correct you have to take them to hoist the trophy , it's now +100. Generally you can do better with your own hedge than to take the books cashout. Good luck I have Argentina to win 3500 today from a 500 dollar bet. I am in a similar position to you, just more winnings at stake. For what it's worth I did hedge back to cover my original stake plus a bit more. Beating the books is tough, and personally I never let the opportunity at free money go to waste. With that said I hope Messi cements his legacy and hoists the trophy! Good luck.

 

[Snafu]

Beating the books is tough, and personally I never let the opportunity at free money go to waste.

No offence but i disagree with this (in long run that is).

At the moment you have ~ 50/50 match with +700 bet on one side. Hedging means you cut your winnings for poorer odds to get "safe" money.
I understand exceptional one time match situation where people like to hedge, but as an idea hedging isn't good one.

And thanks for pointing out that win = lifts trophy:0008

On the other side but good luck :toast:

 

[Crookity]

We agree to disagree as a personal rule in a situation like this I hedge. Also when I set up big parlays lottery style tickets I try to place the last leg on a game in its own time slot so that I can have the chance to hedge. If I lay 100 bucks on a parlay to win say 2000 dollars you better believe I'm hedging out a chunk and taking the free money. I apply that reasoning to this game here. Good luck to you sir and congrats on a fine tournament of capping:0008