Would you guys hedge this or let it ride?

[Hindsite]

Parlay/Teaser Wager Report: Unsettled Generated: Sun Nov 26, 19:35 EST 2006

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11/25/2006 23:39:23 3 Play Parlay: Wagered $400.00 to win $946.09 Unsettled
F 15 11/26 CINCINNATI AT CLEVELAND CINCINNATI -3.0 (W)
F 25 11/26 CHICAGO AT NEW ENGLAND NEW ENGLAND (-200) (W)
F 27 11/26 PHILADELPHIA AT INDIANAPOLIS INDIANAPOLIS (-500)

 

[BleedDodgerBlue]

no

but if i did, i would only cover the original bet

put 100 on philly $line + 455

win 846.09 if colts win

win 55 if eagles somehow win

gl

 

[brooksie]

At -500, a hedge would be almost meaningless - ride and enjoy.

 

[brooksie]

I'll clarify my point - since it's the late game, if you want to hedge now, you should have just played the early two teamer - now you're giving up juice for no reason.

 

[BleedDodgerBlue]

I'll clarify my point - since it's the late game, if you want to hedge now, you should have just played the early two teamer - now you're giving up juice for no reason.

not sure what you are saying.

the colts add an extra 200 to the parlay in a game they should win more than 80% of the time. and he can hedge out to guarantee a profit since its a late game if he chooses.

i still would let it ride, but not sure why you are saying he is giving up juice.

gl and gl to the original poster with the parlay

 

[BuffaloBill]

Agree with BDB.......just cover the original bet with a small hedge.

Personally I think the Colts win, but if you are nervous, then just do that.

 

[LuckyIrish]

Never count out the upset tonight...hedge.

 

[Chill]

Id hedge the way BDB said.

you wont LOSE the 400 if colts lose
and you still win 846 if they win

come out AHEAD.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

I agree with bleed, but I would put $200 on the Eagles ML


Colts win...you still win 750

Eagles win...you win 500


And the celebration begins early

gl bl

 

[Pujo21]

Take the plus 10 1/2 for whatever you want too middle their asses at.

The wager is to take the points...not the philly money line. OR split it between taking points and moneyline.

 

[brooksie]

BDB - you're one of the guys on this board I really love as I've been lurking for some time. Thanks for the post. Here's my point:

If he had played a two teamer early at -110 and -200, he coul.d have risked 400 to win 745. Over 100 plays, given the results in the book, that would produce a profit of 74,500.

With no hedge, he would win $946 80% of the time (75,680) and lose 400 20% of the time. Over 100 plays 67,680.

With a break even hedge (80 to win 400), he will win 866 80% of the time (69280) and break even 20% of the time (0) for a net of 69280.

So I'll concede to you that given the two games in the book, a hedge would be the slightly better play now - buy I still say if that was his strategy going in, he should have just played the early two teamer.

By the way, discussions like this are what makes this board great.

Brooksie

 

[BleedDodgerBlue]

fair enough.

good post brooksie. there is a case to be made for your point of view as well.

nice to see more people understand the mathematics of it all.

i just think that since he included the late game and the earlier results were in that this creates a slightly different scenario whereas there is an opportunity to "freeroll" although he is giving up $80 bucks so technically it isn't one. but you get the point.

had this game been a 1 o'clock start then i don't think it would have been positive expectation to include it in the parlay as you say.

anyway, gl on your plays nice to see you on board.

 

[BestPlay2day]

I agree with BDB, bet $100 moneyline and protect your profits. If the unthinkable happens and the Eagles win, you will still have a small win. If the Colts win, $846.09 is still a nice payout. You won't have to sweat the game at all, let us know what you decided to do and nice hit on the parley!

 

[LordofBalls]

I'd play $100 on ml to win $455

I'd play another $100 @ +11 for a middle, lose both and still win $745

 

[Hindsite]

Thanks... Since the hedge was only +350, I didn't do it ... I figured I could wait until half to make a move if I still felt I needed to.. At this point, I'm just going to let it ride...

 

[ageecee]

Thanks... Since the hedge was only +350, I didn't do it ... I figured I could wait until half to make a move if I still felt I needed to.. At this point, I'm just going to let it ride...

Let it ride the eagles are toast and they cant even stop the run