This is my strongest play of the day.
Temple -7.5
Today, although these 90+% trends are on the ML, we have 3 different 90+% trends favoring Temple in this contest:
Play On - Road favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (TEMPLE) - a good team (+3.5 to +8 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3.5 PPG diff.) after 15+ games, after allowing 60 points or less.
(38-3 since 1997.) (92.7%, +30 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -220
The average score in these games was: Team 73.4, Opponent 63.5 (Average point differential = +9.9)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (14-0, +14 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (25-1, +22.8 units).
Play On - Favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (TEMPLE) - an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG) against a good defensive team (63-67 PPG) after 15+ games, after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more.
(56-4 since 1997.) (93.3%, +45 units. Rating = 3*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -297.9
The average score in these games was: Team 69.6, Opponent 59.7 (Average point differential = +9.8)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0, +1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (20-2, +15.6 units).
Play Against - Home underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (FORDHAM) - average 3PT shooting team (32-36.5%) against a poor 3PT shooting team (<=32%) after 15+ games.
(53-5 since 1997.) (91.4%, +40.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -248.7
The average score in these games was: Team 73.4, Opponent 63.1 (Average point differential = +10.3)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0, +1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-2, +5.2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (27-5, +14.4 units).
I know its a narrow cover predicting a 9+ point Temple win, but...Temple trashed this team by 32 points this season. In addition, they have ownership of this team at home and away:
All games in this series since 1997
TEMPLE is 10-5 against the spread versus FORDHAM since 1997
TEMPLE is 15-0 straight up against FORDHAM since 1997
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997
The average score in these games was TEMPLE 78, FORDHAM 62
The average spread in these games was TEMPLE favored by 13.3 points.
The average total in these games was 119.0 points.
Games over the last 3 seasons
TEMPLE is 4-1 against the spread versus FORDHAM over the last 3 seasons
TEMPLE is 5-0 straight up against FORDHAM over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
The average score in these games was TEMPLE 78, FORDHAM 56
The average spread in these games was TEMPLE favored by 13.8 points.
The average total in these games was 119.0 points.
All games played at FORDHAM since 1997
TEMPLE is 6-1 against the spread versus FORDHAM since 1997
TEMPLE is 7-0 straight up against FORDHAM since 1997
The average score in these games was TEMPLE 80, FORDHAM 66
The average spread in these games was TEMPLE favored by 10.1 points.
Games played at FORDHAM over the last 3 seasons.
TEMPLE is 2-0 against the spread versus FORDHAM over the last 3 seasons
TEMPLE is 2-0 straight up against FORDHAM over the last 3 seasons
The average score in these games was TEMPLE 78, FORDHAM 62
The average spread in these games was TEMPLE favored by 10.3 points.
As you can see by the above head-to-head analysis, these games aren't even close. Temple is playing staggering defense this season allowing just 60.7 ppg and a shooting % of 38.8. But...look at how well their defense plays against division foes: Their allowing a meager 48.7 ppg and a shooting % of a ultra low 32.1.
