WSOP Main Event ?

blgstocks

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 4, 2005
3,181
12
0
So. Cal
Now that our boy Jack is making waves in biggest tourney in the world, it got me thinking.

What would you guys put the luck to skill ratio of a tourney that is played out over a week? I mean everyone says you gotta get lucky to make the final table, (well except raymer who claims he never put a bad beat on somebody until the final table, then when we can see his hole cards he puts 3 bad beats in the same show LOL)

As long as this tourney is and as great as the players that are playing in it and sticking around how much of a luck factor do you think there is?

50/50 luck to skill?
25/75 luck to skill?

What do you guys think?
 

Phenom

STRONG.
Forum Member
May 24, 2001
3,048
13
0
The Upstate
They talked about this on one of the WSOP events of ESPN lately, I like some of the thoughts of Furgeson and others;

It depends on the time period you are looking at, it may be 90% luck and 10% skill in one tourney for a week, then progresses more towards skill over an extended period of time, i.e. in one month it might be 70% luck, 30% skill, and over the course of a year it is more like 10% luck and 90% skill, etc...

Also, skill might win 90% of the time over the course of a tourney, but luck can come into play at any ONE time and beat skill 99% of the time...

I know I didn't explain that exactly right, but maybe you get the idea???
 

blgstocks

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 4, 2005
3,181
12
0
So. Cal
Phenom said:
They talked about this on one of the WSOP events of ESPN lately, I like some of the thoughts of Furgeson and others;

It depends on the time period you are looking at, it may be 90% luck and 10% skill in one tourney for a week, then progresses more towards skill over an extended period of time, i.e. in one month it might be 70% luck, 30% skill, and over the course of a year it is more like 10% luck and 90% skill, etc...

Also, skill might win 90% of the time over the course of a tourney, but luck can come into play at any ONE time and beat skill 99% of the time...

I know I didn't explain that exactly right, but maybe you get the idea???
i saw this same thing your talking about phenom, I would definitel say in this main event, almost everyone in there is decent, and there are probably thousands of verrry good players, but to beat out 8000 of them, well, I would say it is around 95% luck and 5% skill to even make the final table.

I mean what other skilll event is the favorite 9000 to 1. I think in march madness uconn was something like 4 to 1
 

Terryray

Say Parlay
Forum Member
Dec 6, 2001
9,402
1,015
113
Kansas City area for who knows how long....
Most seem to agree that luck plays much bigger role at start of tournament. The amateurs, with their crazy and unpredictable play, nothing to lose but their stake--the professionals know they are at a disadvantage here. That changes later on when higher proportion of skilled players left, playing a fine edge.

Nolan said today he thought many of the top players start the tournament very aggressive, taking some stuff they wouldn't normally take to try and make a strong early run. If they don't achieve that, then would rather get knocked out early than hang around a week playing tourney and missing out on big cash games.


Dan Harrington made the final WSOP table two (recent) years in a row, besting fields of thousands, and many consider that almost as impressive as winning the thing.
 

blgstocks

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 4, 2005
3,181
12
0
So. Cal
Terryray said:
Most seem to agree that luck plays much bigger role at start of tournament. The amateurs, with their crazy and unpredictable play, nothing to lose but their stake--the professionals know they are at a disadvantage here. That changes later on when higher proportion of skilled players left, playing a fine edge.

Nolan said today he thought many of the top players start the tournament very aggressive, taking some stuff they wouldn't normally take to try and make a strong early run. If they don't achieve that, then would rather get knocked out early than hang around a week playing tourney and missing out on big cash games.


Dan Harrington made the final WSOP table two (recent) years in a row, besting fields of thousands, and many consider that almost as impressive as winning the thing.
Very good point about pros making early run to have a shot at winning thing terry,
I would say Raymer winning it and then coming in top 15 or something last year was just as impressive, even though i dont like raymer. No doubt there are great players continually weeding through the competition. Thanks for the updates in the wsop thread by the way.
 
Bet on MyBookie
Top