XFL the way I see it, for March 10 - 11

JD

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XFL the way I see it, for March 10 - 11

For what it's worth, I've been doing quite well in XFL this inaugural season. I'm just looking for value where I can find it, and taking it. The tough part is justifying the picks at length with facts and stats, so I'm not even going to try. However, the easy part is that there are no preconceived notions or emotional attachments here as does invariably occur each NFL season.
So, at the risk of awakening my own personal posting jinx-type hell, here is what I'm looking at for this weekend.

***LA -3 (at Birm): My top pick. I'd done well by going against LA early in the season. They simply were overvalued, week after week, due to being a big market favorite and having a few recognizable names on their roster. Now while I'm still not enamored with LA Extreme QB Tommy (interception in waiting) Maddox, I do think that the team is beginning to get hot on offense just as the lines begin to correct themselves for a backward swing. Rode 'em to victory last week against a greatly inferior NY/NJ team, and I'll ride 'em again this week in much the same fashion. IMHO, Birm is only about a field-goal better than NY/NJ is.(Bolts SHOULD have lost to NY/NJ as it took an incredibly horrible call from the officials to hand them that one!)

**San Fran vs NY/NJ: Under 32.5 : Gotta like the under in just about any game that NY/NJ plays. They are just simply incapable of playing offense. Luckily for them, they can play a little defense on occasion. San Fran is a good, well rounded team and should be able to control the tempo. I think the number of 32.5 is about 2 points too high. Also, if the line on the side was at SF -6 or below, the Demons would have been my Best Bet. At -7 and up, it's just too much for me to give in THIS league.

2-Team, 6-pt Tease,
*San Fran -1
*Memphis +1/2

My lean on San Fran is explained above. Memphis is topping my Most Improved list here in week 6. Much like the inept offensive run that the now NFL Champion Baltimore Ravens went through this past season, it seemed that Memphis wouldn't score another touchdown there for a couple weeks. Enter third string QB Drunkenmiller. WHERE were they hiding this guy!? All of a sudden this team is playing well and may be on the rise. Beating LA on the road was no small task and seems to have been a springboard. They played Orlando right down to the wire last week and seem to be playing with much more confidence with Drunkenmiller in there guiding the offense.

I'm going to be away this weekend, so I may or may not be able to catch the games. At any rate, Good Luck to all.

ps. I consider the Orl/LV game too close to call. Good "O" against good "D" in that one. Two of the best teams in the league, I really like LV's "D", but Orl may be too much for them. I'm not giving the points, and not taking the few alloted due to Orl's explosiveness. (well, what passes for "explosiveness" in this league that is) As I've been doing this year, any other game that LV GETS points, I'm all over it!
 

JD

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Just added.....

2-team, 6-point tease:

SF vs NY/NJ: Under 38.5
LA Extreme: +3

Good Luck.
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AzRusty

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HI...

I'm still relatively new to sports wagering.
Have only been doing this since the beginning of the baseball play-offs and have been struggling (and studying) to learn sports in general and sports wagering.

I don't yet know how to handicap or trust my judgement but I have been playing a lot of picks.

I played yours last Friday for the weekend games including the teaser that you added later. 3 out of 4 WON!

WOW ...!!!

My first XFL plays and I won.
I bet very small...minimum wagers but still...

Way to go and thank you!

AzRusty
 

JD

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Just got back from the airport and read your post Rusty.

3 for 4 eh? I've been out of state for the week and haven't even had the chance to check how we did yet. Great to hear that we BOTH won $$.

I'll try to post more if I get a chance to research this week's XFL games!

Good Luck.
 

AzRusty

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I look forward to reading your analysis of the future XFL games. I have tended to want to shy away from XFL ... and have yet to even watch a game. I work Saturdays and am often busy doing stuff with my wife on Sundays so it's been tough to catch the games.

After my experience with your picks last weekend I am likely to tag along with you for the ride again.

And if I do... thanks for your picks and insight. And thanks for letting me learn.
As to whether they are winners or losers. Of course, I would rather they be winners but will be happy tracking someone who knows a hell of a lot more than I do.

I e-mailed Raymond the other day after he posted some losing baseball picks which I bet on. I'm leaving baseball alone until the season starts. They are PRACTICING...and don't care whetehr they win or lose! DUH

Anyway.. I thanked Raymond for his picks and he seemed puzzled that I would thank him for losers. My reply was .. well...If a friend gives you an apple and it has a worm in it it is still a GIFT! You should be grateful for the apple AND the worm! LOL

See ya

AzRusty
 

JD

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Well, up here in the NorthEast, after the SuperBowl we get the worst of our winter weather. That's what makes XFL so handy. Even though it's not the greatest product in the world, it sure beats reruns of "the Sound of Music" when it's 20 degrees and snowing on a blustery Saturday afternoon. Nothing like a nice fire in the fireplace, a beer or three, and a few bucks riding on a football game in late Feb. It keeps me away from NBA. (luckily for me now that Nolan has taken a breather)

I find that XFL is actually EASIER for me to cap than NFL. (so far anyway) Fewer teams, absolutely no fan bias from me as I don't care who wins the games, just so long as my money is on the winning side. So, I'm just glancing at the numbers and determining where I believe the "value" is. Which is to say that if I believe that a line is scewed a couple of points to one side, I simple take the other.

This week's Picks will be up in a couple hours, though I probably won't have time for analysis since I'm still unpacking from my trip. Let's hope that I've not blown my perverbial load already. The first 1/2 of the XFL season I'd done exceptionally well, so let's cross our fingers and hope that we're not in for a "market correction" in the 2nd half.

(much like the stock market this past week)
 
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