Y buy points in basketball

[verbalkint]

Simply some advice.

Buying points in basketball is a very bad proposition. The math proof of this has been done and explained in detail in many forums. Too put it in a quick summary: 1/2 pt is approximently .008 of the total points scored by the average college team.. 'THEY' charge 0.1 in vig, which means, either you win less or lose more.

Think about it.

EXample:
Tonite two games that are a 'lock'. My bankroll is 100x, each play is 8x.



scenerio 1 - most probable outcome, a split, one play wins one loses.
without buying points
win 7.27x, lose 8x = toal loss .73x
buying 1/2 point
win 6.66x, lose 8x =total loss 1.34x

scenerio 2 - both games win
without buying points
win .909x, win.909x = total profit 1.82x
buying 1/2 pt
win.833x, win.833x = total profit 1.66x

scenerio 3 - lose both gmes
total loss2x either way

CoNclusion:
In the most likely scenerio [a split] you lose an extra 45%. The % of winners needed to overcome this advantage is approaching impossible.
In the most advantageous scenerio [win both], it costs 9.6% of the profit too buy a 1/2 pt. In other words you win $16 less for every $100 wagered.
BOTTOM LINE -
buying pts in basketball is not advantageous to the player, and is VERY profitable for the books!!!!!!!

 

[verbalkint]

my mistake !
It should read it costs $16.7 for everry $100 wagered. to buy a 1/2pt.

 

[mjalam]

i'm not for or against buying points, but your scenarios are leaving out the fact that it may not be a loss because you bought the 1/2 pt. it might be a push or even a win

 

[Felonious Monk]

I like how everyone that does the breakdowns always choose to omit the scenario of getting a push instead of a loss as a result of buying the hook.

EDIT: didn't see mjalam's post.

 

[verbalkint]

see scenerio 1 or 2, i think it has too be one or the other.

 

[Felonious Monk]

nope, it's not scenarios 1 or 2 because you only show the winning % minus the juice. I'm not sure how you can put a % on the number of games you save money rather than losing them by buying the hook but it happens.

I speak from experience.

 

[verbalkint]

the results when one of the two games is a push, you can work out for yourself, are a much lower ROA. Thus making buying pts an even more expensive proposition.

Just take my word for it,,, dont do it.

 

[verbalkint]

you can not save anything.
try and prove otherwise.
either lose more or
win less.
depends on which way you look at it.

 

[verbalkint]

in order too overcome the 45% you are giving up , the half pt would have too come in to play more than 45%, or in 100 wagers 45 times. Statistics say it would be most likely to come into play between 4 and 6 times in 100 wagers.
Tlhese are the statistical probabilities, if you can supply a proof that disputes these results please do so.
My figures do not account for the fact that the majority of the time buying a pt would result in a push and not a win. I believe the result would significantly reduce the ROA even more.

 

[GENO]

lets keep this valuable info close to the top

BUMP

 

[Felonious Monk]

let it go man. this entire forum is turning into a juice debate.

 

[verbalkint]

WHY!
If you pay juice i think you would be interested. After all it is your $$ and the object is to win as much as possible.

 

[Felonious Monk]

Thank you for your overwhelming concern with my money management. You've made your point, now move on. Unless you have some MOJO pics to add to this thread, consider this discussion accomplished.

 

[ezpickin]

If you want to go by 'raw statistics", quit gambling altogether...afterall, statistically speaking, far more people lost than win

 

[Valuist]

Its one thing in football, where there are key numbers, but realistically other than buying into 3 in football, it isn't a wise idea. Is there a greater likelihood a basketball game will end with a 4 pt differential as opposed to a 7? I don't think so.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

For me, buying the hook has very little to do with whether or not I think it's a strong financial position to take in the long run. It has a very intangible quality to me. I can handle losing, but every time I lose by a half point it takes me 10 times as long to get over it and move on, no matter how much or little I have riding on it. Conversely, I am not any more excited when I win by a half point. I consider buying the half point insurance on the ulcer I am avoiding down the line. But to each their own.

One thing I have had extremely good luck at this year has been buying around 2-2.5 points in my parlays. Basically that means I end up having to add an extra team to get the same payout, but I have had a lot of success doing that. I'm sure the statistics don't back me on that, either, but I'm not gonna fix what's not broken.

 

[Felonious Monk]

the only times i may buy points is if the line is around 2-4, meaning a tight game. over 5 and i don't bother with it. it works for me and i'll continue to do it this way.

 

[verbalkint]

I have a 'feeling' that 3 and 4 are key numbers. However , i have no statistical data to support this theory. In order too be statistically significant 1,000,000 trials would be needed. So we need results for 998,050 more games too make a proof. That would be 15,354 more tournaments.

IMO the 2 ideas above are good ones.

 

[homedog]

I hate to drag this out but need some clarification on your math.

You state both wagers are 8x, juice is 0.1.

In scenario 1 you are risking 8x to win 7.27x (8/1.1) without buying points and risking 8x to win 6.66x (8/1.2). Gotcha.

What happened/changed in scenario 2? If both games win and you risk 8x as you did in scenario 1, then you win 7.27x + 7.27x = 15.54x without buying points and 6.66x + 6.66x = 13.32x if buying points.

Your numbers for scenarios 2 and 3 are risking 1x.

In scenario 1, you lose .61x (1.34x - .73x) more when buying points which is 83.56% (.61x / .73x) more, not 45% more.

If you are trying to prove a point you could at least be accurate. :shrug:

 

[verbalkint]

sorry for the confusion. I skipped some steps in trying to keep the post short.
note:
1. multiplying both sides by 8** does NOT change the overall %

2. the total lost [or gained] in this example s/b multipiled by 8

scenerio 1
was correct
.61*[extra loss caused buying pts]/1.34[total loss]= 45% more

scenerio 2
total loss = 1.28* =8[0.16]*
%given up = %less won = 0.16/1.66= 9.6%

scenerio 3
loose both sides result
8* + 8* = 16*
i hope this helps