year end predictions look back

[selkirk]

I thought it would be interesting to look back at how some of the stock have fared that were mentioned in the year end market predictions.

maybe something can be learned from the hits and misses...and there was some big misses. also some solid selections...like a dart board.lol. anyways this slowly add, will start with 1999. and work up... cannot find the 98 picks.

comments in brackets

Price are rounded up from Dec, 16, 1999.

1.BCE-tech/utility (TSE/NYSE) $116 Cdn.
(this stock worked out well, used to talk about it around 75-85 cnd. basically only traded for the worth of Nortel, well almost. sold most of it at 12-125. they spined off NT, and looked to be on the correct road then Monty (CEO) lost his mind. spent for CTV (TV station) and paid over 1 billion, then spent 8 billion for a bankrupt telephone company called teleglobe.

teachers are now going to take it over...more on this later. still not a bad stock.



2.Nortel-tech (TSE/NYSE)$131 Cdn.
hit over 140 US 2000, (which is a good trade, considering cdn. 30% less)
still long term NT has been a disaster, my worse call ever was when someone asked my about NT.
on another board.

told him it was trading at double the historical highs (warning) however still would rate it a buy in case nasdaq came back. well they warned. did post that night to sell the stock, not fun losing 20% in a matter of weeks but better than losing 95% over years. when a growth stock trading a high valuations misses, you have to get out. and stay out.

should have known better, it made me a great deal of money through BCE and smaller portion on NT, and the tech in general and probably clouded my judgment,...ie. drank the koolaid on NT.


3.CNR/CNI-railway (TSE/NYSE) $43 CDN
has split 2-1 twice, and 3-2 once, and now trades for just under 53 cdn. just a great stock and at the time and still the best railway in North America. was my first stock selection on a board no longer exists and went down 25%. still kept it because earnings and cash flow were growing.

cdn. railways have not had the run they have the US ones have had, so if you want 10-15% year over year, and play resources and the general economy worse stocks to pick than CNR, and CP. Note : should not have traded around the positon. still has been a great winner, would have been better it I never traded any.....





4.TD bank $36
has split 2-1, and now trades for 65.81 cdn., just a good cdn. bank to own.. probably the best retail bank in cdn. major quesiton is how they will do in the states. not sure but for the time being a stock to consider.


5.Sleemans(ale)beer-TSE=only buying if it goes below $5.75
this stock was taken over by a Japaneese brewer at a nice premium. still buy sleemna draft to this day...good beer and at 5.75 the stock was good for a double. good stock to trade, not many cdn. beer stocks anymore.

6.Suncor(TSE)oil- $62
okay started buying this at $45, however 62 was a great entry now is at $115.32.
has split 2-1 twcie, so 1 stock then equals 4.
would have had all suncor but back then we dreamed of $40 oil....lol

7.Merrill lynch (TSE/NYSE) $78 US. hit over $95.
was just a trade and never bought back in, however MER may be worth a look once this settles. the preferred the banks and brokerages offer have great value...or potential.

8.Noranda-base metals,zinc,nickel (TSE) $19.CDN.goal over $22 yield 4.5%
Noranda was a great stock however was taken over, so it was a big win, the stock was sold out very cheap, considering current commodity prices....cheap, cheap....but then in 1999 who cares about a mining stock.... was happy for the takeover looking back cannot believe how undervalued these stocks were.


9. Bank One (NYSE)they have problems buying in the new year if it goes below $30.50.

the stock was taken over in 2004 by JPM, for 1 bank one share for every 1.32 share of JPM.
JPM is still not a bad play, like a preferred they have issued recently, however the common should do well.



10.Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)$163-get to buy 100 of the best tech stocks, and a low .18 MER.
wow, this was a disaster, though it did have a great run until march of 2000. got out about 3 months later, and have been underweight tech since.

11. ClubLink (TSE) buying in the new year if it goes below $7 Cdn., This stock trades at 13.9 PE

though not a bad stock, just thought would make more on this, would have been better. they owned golf courses in Canada, and seemed well run with a good plan. clublink how to buy a stock and see it do nothing...brought to you by....

well there is 1999.

thanks
selkirk

 

[selkirk]

in no particular order 2002

Stocks 1. XIT (TSE) an index of Canadian tech companies will move higher.

XIT was cdn. tech, showed sign but the industry was washed out, how to get stopped out 10%.

3. Nortel ($13.32 cdn. )/ Cisco $20.76 both move higher, they are fully valued and are not cheap but they are well off their lows and any news even of weak revenue seems to push the shares higher. Both move up.

(Wrong: Wrong: next time I say a stock is fully valued will not list is just because I think techs will rebound. Saying that Cisco held up fairly well compared to other stocks. Nortel would state it was a sell, should not have been on the list. Nortel was more hope?.mistake.)

somtimes because a sector does so well you expect a bounce, it tech did bounce back probably two big blue chips would have done well, however sometimes new companies take their place. did not lose much however there was no trade there except a short. tech was over.



4. Saputo $27.75 cdn. (TSE) would buy below $24.50. Good Cheese and Diary company good everyone needs their calcium. Anyways good cashflow and well run.

Correct : the stock hit a high of $34.25 now trades at $25.65. still the stock had a good run in a bad year for the markets. Good company.

(SAP split 2-1 and is currently trading at 26.80cdn., if you want to play the cheese market then sap is it....probably a hold short term however still like the company and business.) also pays .48 cent div.



5. Nexfor last years idiot selection made over 13% in a down market, so it will be back this year. Currently at $7.40 cdn. TSE would buy below $7.

2001 idiot selection was worth sticking with, trades at $8.36 with a high of $9.70. also 4% yield?..what is not to like.

(Nexfor or now called Norboard was a good call, however they supply the housing industry so it has sold off the past two years, will get very cheap at the bottom, probably six months, to a year,do not want to get the bottom. pays a high div, and great yield and housing will come back..will buy when it shows signs of life).

6. TD $41.46 cdn. own TD bank and believe it can break above over $45 with the div a decent return. Not Cheap but a good long term holding.

TD had a bad year after I posted the stock however currently trades at $65.81 cdn. after having a down/flat year, still yields 3.59%, and will recover. not a bad financial to own.plus like a over 3-4% yield every year.

7. CP rail $33.05 if they can improve their railway and be as efficient as CNR (CNI) then this stock moves higher. CNR (CNI) and CP are two good cdn. railways worth tracking.

CP is at $31.99 and CNR $66.84 both railways held up well in this terrible market. Like both stocks.

CP has more than doubled to 69.08cdn. and yields 1.44%, both railways have been good places to invest. CP has more room to improve.

there is 2002.

thanks
selkirk

 

[selkirk]

2003

Stocks

Idiot stock pick for 2003 Russel Metals $4.75 (TSE) okay yields over 4.75% trades less than 10PE, and just below book value, good balance sheet, oh yes and no one cares about this small cap, still even if it does not move 4.75% yield is much better than any T-Bill.

(Russel metals was a great pick, it now trades at 29.05cdn., and yields 6.20%, 1.80 div. great stock and the divs covered your purchase price. they still large management ownership and keep increasing the div, though not this year. not sure if they will get taken out (steel). bought and sold this stock, however would have been better just to hold.) idiot stock was referring to a stock that was so cheap and (paid a div) that any idiot could spot.




Stocks (closing prices Jan. 8.2003) 2. Sunlife SLF $27.51 cdn. $17.68 this insurance company should make $2.55+ a share in 2003, a good stock which should be able to grow earnings 8-10% a year. A yield of 2%, should make 10% counting yield.

(SLF has done well up to 47.68, and pays a div of $1.44 cdn. up from .17 in 2003. currently yields 3.02% and has held up better than the banks. last quarter was average though, only negatvie.)

3. Manulife Financial $36.83 cdn. $23.85 US also a life insurance company, prefer Sunlife for now more of a North American play. Yields 2% and is expanding into Asia. They have decided to try to takeover Canada Life which would make them the biggest insurance company in Canada ahead of Sunlife. The deal is supposed to add to earnings in year one, however do not care for it since it will lower ROE going forward over 3 years. Still like the company and their growth prospects in Asia wether the Canda Life Acquistion slows this growth time will tell.

(split 2-1 and now trades at 38.51 cdn. pays a .96 div for a yield of 2.49%, very good financial to hold for the long term, and the last five years have not been bad either, slower growth than last five and no more John Hancocks to buy, still should do just fine.)


3. Plum Creek Timber $23.79 This is a weak buy for me. It yields over 5.50% even after dropping the div from .57-.35 last year. The div should be safe this year. This company also owns millions of acres of land, which is probably helping along the div to prop up the stock. They should earn $1.25-$1.30 this year . Lumber prices are weak and there is very little signs of a recovery. So buying if for the 5.5% yield and if lumber prices recover 10%+ return, if not then this will be dead money. Target 5% return.



trades at 42.65, yields over 4%, and the div has risen over the five years...thought it was a short term play, however it pays a good div and is not a bad place to park money. did much better on PCL than most of the cdn. stocks in this sector, there are not just timber, it is the land they own.

4. Cascades (CAS ?TSX) this stock trades in Toronto and they produce container board, papers. The stock is trading for $15.82 and should make $1.90+, it yields just under 1%, not exciting but cheap. Should be able to get it for $15 cdn. but will track it at $15.82. good stock, management, ROE, and for less than 10X earnings. Also like domtar but Cascades is cheaper.

(CAS yields 2.16% on the .16 div, however it is now 7.41. many reasons this stock was crushed, prices for paper and containerboard dropped sharply, also the cdn. dollar rose, they sell in US $ and costs in Cdn.) loss between 10-20% in stocks like this, there may be value down the road but have been out of the sector in cdn. for years,.... no reason to rush in, maybe in a year or two....three.ect.)


5. CGI group GIB.a this trades in the US and Canada and is the fourth biggest IT consulting company, should make around .50 cents (hopefully volatile) and trades at $7.12. Like their most recent acquisition . Note BCE will probably spin off the company, if they do the company will go down. Own this outright and have some calls, calls on Montreal for this company are high.

(this went down the following year, but now trades at 11.72, for anything in that space a very good result...more a hold now....though better than many in its space. mainly played options in it.)




6. Aber Diamonds below (TSX) below $30 cdn. currently at $30.90 one of the biggest diamond mines in the world, in Canada?.cashflow?..

that?s it for this year.


(though it did well they bought out Winston Smith, Jewlers. so in a way it is a play on high end retail....in the US, do not own the stock because not sure about retail in most cases, probably a decent hold however prefer other mining stocks, and retail stocks.)

thanks
selkirk

 

[selkirk]

2005 stocks review

the returns were for 26 december 2006, brackets updated prices.


Inco 30.41% $51.28 $39.92
(went higher and was bought out, very good return and the buyer will pay off the purchase around 3 years....Inco was worth far more)

Teck 85.40% $60.35 $32.55
(TCK.b TCK is about the only large mineral (mining stock in Cdn., public) split 2-1, and now trades at $43 cdn. cheap however should start a correction, good buying opportunity in six months (probably). also yields over 3%.)

Alcan -21.57% $47.84 $34.86
(Alcan also was taken over, a trend here, if you held past 2006, made a very good return. this was also sold to cheap, much better at creating value for shareholders than Alcoa)

Tailsamans 96.31% $61.84 $31.50
(also split, has performed well compaered to the market but has often been near the middle or below for the energy group. management though great at building wealth and a company also seemed to miss on the production numbers... hopefully this changes with the new ceo.... TLM is one to watch. if oil/gas holds this is cheap.)


CNQ 139% $58.02 $24.275
(this is has been one of the top performing energy companies and has also split, after the split has come to 82 cdn., CNQ is going to have their oil sands play, and is a good way to play natural gas in North America and an oil sands play going into production...can we say cash flow... negative...has had a very good run from 62-88 recently...so investors may look to book some short term gains, more if there is a correction in energy)

SU 89.86% $73.59 $38.76
($111.74 cdn.this recently has been trading with oil, oil is up SU is up and oil down SU down. many energy companies trade similar however SU is even closer. great oil sands company and a huge winner, wish I had more in my drip/spp plan. believe oil may correct in the short term, may get the stock for $100cdn. however would look to buy more on an energy correction... never the cheapest however reserves for 30-40 years is one reason why..... if it goes on sale will buy more.)

these all trade in the US.


2005 included some spec small caps, the returns are after 1 year, brackets current price. most just trade in Cdn.

(should note: mentioned True Energy, sold after hitting my stop price, probably would be currently rated a hold/sell even though it is 50% lower.

loss just over 20% on True, however they did spin off Vero, (which bought more of,) True terrible Vero great jr. natural gas company. bought more of Vero, and still hold. overall together loss of 8%. Vero is a winner, True is a avoid.)

1. DEE $3.40 $5.57 +63.82%
(DEE is $2.71, though sold most of my DEE and now currently looking at buying back a positon, growing Natural gas production of over 10% a year. CHEAP, CHEAP, should note if Natural gas stays above or around $10 stock will make a good return from 2.71..... if natural gas goes back to $8....misery. company has growing production, and is cheap by most measures.

negative: higher debt, so would not be a company to hold on low natural gas prices ie. $8. a leveraged play. )


2. Zed $2.32 $1.52 -34.48%
.70 losing money on this in 05 was enough have not followed the stock since....

3. GZ $3.90 $9.96 +155.38%
(5.39 this had a good run, and got killed in the natural gas correction, took most of my gains in 05, better jr. out there).


4. TIC $3.02 $2.78 - 7.94%
1.50, do not own this stock, loss in 05 was enough. did have a small positon however loss close to 15% and that was enough.

like DEE,and VERO as riskier ways of playing natural gas.

thanks
selkirk

 

[selkirk]

2006

only one stock was in this thread under the stock selections, had a hard time picking any I liked.

1. HBM Hud bay minerals (trades only on Toronto)

this is small cap mining company.
produced in the 3Q of 2005

tons
19,800 copper
29,500 zinc,
onces 21,800 gold, 309,500 silver.

had 125.9 million in cash, and earned .28 cents.

looking at earnings per share of 2005 .59 2006 .68
believe these levels can be reached and the company is trading at $5.99

note bought some at $5.75, of coarse its low was $1.81. first saw the company at $4.25 have no idea why I waited to 5.75....

in the 3q 2005 they made .28cents but metal prices are higher that what they got.

(in 2006 buying at 5.75, was a good move, though should have bought even lower. currently 19.04 cdn. trades at 10.77 PE, and has a large cash positon.

do not currently own a positon, would rate the stocks a hold near 20, and around 15-16 a buy. HBM has done well as copper and zinc have performed well. They face a problem either buy another property or company. there are thoughts that they are willing to be bought out by another company.... this may happen since the window for buying a company may have closed... time will tell if there is another sell off in base metal companies.

well run, company, probably a hold at these prices however around 15/16 cdn. will buy a small position.)

thanks
selkirk

 

[selkirk]

2007 stocks
actually BRIC etf have held up well, and are even up which is surprising given the climate EEB 54.69US, and CBQ (42.55cdn) have held up well.

SNP.u is a leverage play on Toronto to play health stocks in the US, now at 4.85, hard to trade large spreads, so unless you get it on sale someone dumping the shares probably better to play a leveraged or ordinary etf in the US. now more available.

BSC 14.34 yields 2.77% a leverage play on BNS 49.90 cdn. 3.77%
BNS is a very good cdn. bank which gives you exposure to Mexico, South America, with small but growing operations in Asia. since many investors either have US banks, financials or cdn. ones then this one is a decent way to play these markets without some of the risk.

ie. Argentina blew up a few years back, one quarter of earnings were written off and then the bank continued....
note: buy this bank as a long term holding in a DRIP/SPP account for people new to the market.

QC which lost me 15% (sold) is now down even more at 2.10. though it yields 4.26% do not see a reason to own it....also the banks will provide just as much upside with less risk. on small caps like this take a stop of 15-20% and then I am out,...enough of a donation.


these were mostly trading stocks, still own a positon in EEB, however have a bigger one in VWO (bigger emerging markets), own BSC but larger position in BNS. health care stocks own none at this time, though looking at a way to play the sector. usually own this sector through etfs.


thanks
selkirk

2007

US
EEB (interesting index way of playing emerging markets.)

(high 58.0469 low 14.1169 close 53.39)
bought 31.57
EEB return 69.88%( counts .24312 div)

cnd.
CBQ (same as EEB in US)
bought 25.89
return 64.83% (counting div)

CRQ (div, index fund.)
bought $11
return 8.6% (counting div)

added in the same post later

SNP.u
bought 5.06
return 8.89% should state this did hit $7 this is a levergage etf on health care, when it runs up take profits. took most off the table at $6.50. using closing price of $5.45. be carefull when trading, large spreads sometimes between bid/ask.

BSC (leverage play on BNS)
bought 15.60
return counting div. -4.38%
small loss hit a high of 16.99 low 13.06, closed at 14.57. BNS held up well considering the blood bath most financials had.....would be a long term holding.

Small cap
QC bought 3.30
closed $2.70 high 3.51 low 1.88
return -15.15% (counting div)

overall
4 winnner and two loser, and the worse loss was my small cap -15.15%, by the way one small cap I mentioned in the predictions thread went from 2-21. so some times these take time...Quest will be a tax loss, may re-enter the stock later....upside and downside are limited in this finance company.

overall return(all 6) +22.11%

by the way would have been better to own BNS, as the dividend is higher than this split share....own both.