Well, gentlemen, College Football is here....
FYI - I only play the games I've listed as my Best Bets (i.e. I don't play the leans or the Strong Opinions), but FWIW here's the way I see this first weekend of CFB panning out.... Personally, I'm only playing the Neb/ASU Under this weekend....
Thursday, August 22
VIRGINIA (-2.5) 28 Colorado St. 23
Pass
Quick Trends: Since the middle of Lubick?s first season in ?93, the Rams are an incredible 24-6-1 ATS and 19-12 straight up as an underdog or pick in regular season games.... The hint here is it's risky to bet against Sonny Lubick in the underdog role....
Friday, August 23
WISCONSIN (-7) 34 Fresno 23
Strong Opinion on Wisky (-7)
Initially, I loved Wisky here, as the line opened at -3; however, since then it has moved to -7. I still like Wisky to cover the number, but the value has been eroded from the initial line, which makes me mad I didn't pull the trigger earlier in the week...and also makes this only a Strong Opinion on Wisky -7. Pass on this total.
Quick Trends: Fresno State is 9-4 ATS as an underdog the last 3 years. The Badgers squad is just 1-8 ATS as a home favorite the last 2 seasons.
As for the games on Saturday and Sunday, I see them like this....
Saturday, August 24
OHIO STATE (-6 ?) 24 Texas Tech 16
Pass
This one is another pass for me.... I have no idea how OSU's offense is going to do this season, but they can't be much worse than last year. What I do know is that their Defense is going to be amazing.... They should hold Kingsbury to less than spectacular numbers and get the win, but I don't know if they can cover the number. I'll have to pass on the side with a slight lean to the UNDER 47.
Quick Trend: Texas Tech is an impressive 7-2 ATS in road games in coach Leach?s two seasons.
New Mexico 16 (+12 ?) NC STATE 26
Strong Opinion on UNDER 50
I'll have to pass on the side with a Strong Opinion on the UNDER 50.
Quick Trend: The Lobos have lost only 3 times by more than 7 points in their last 20 games and they are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog of more than 8 points.
NEBRASKA (-22) 34 Arizona State 10
***UNDER Total 56 (3-star Best Bet)
The one game that really caught my eye early is the total on the Nebraska / ASU game.... This number looks to be a little out of line so early in the season, especially with the relative experience differential between the young offenses and more experienced defenses on both sides of the ball.... Barring a few untimely turnovers by ASU?s inexperienced offense and/or quick scores by Nebraska's ?Black Shirt? defense, this one should go well UNDER the posted total of 56. The number is falling fast after opening up at 59. I've seen it as low as 55.5 at some places...so, if you have the opportunity, get it now before it goes down much further.
Quick Trend: Nebraska at home under coach Solich is 7-14 ATS when favored by 16 points or more.
Florida State (-22) 38 Iowa State 10 (at Kansas City, MO)
Strong Opinion on Florida St (-22)
If this number goes south, which I don't expect it to (as I expect Joe Q. Public to hammer Florida St. closer to gametime), I will make a small play on Bobby Bowden's boyz to come out making a statement that they're back in the hunt.... Lean to UNDER 54
Quick Trend: Iowa State is just 9-18 ATS as an underdog of 14 points or more under coach McCarney.
Sunday, August 25
Arkansas State (+37) 6 VIRGINIA TECH 42
Pass
Are you kidding me? If I had to chose a side, I guess I'd take the dawg, as Va Tech has LSU on deck and may rest their starters instead of risking an injury like last season, but I usually don't play games where one side can name the score....
Quick Trend: Arkansas St. is 7-2 ATS in season openers and have covered some large numbers against Georgia and NC State the last two years. Va Tech is 1-3 ATS when favored by 30+, but the last time these two met (1997), Va Tech rolled 50-0 as a 40 point favorite.
Good luck and, as always, may the football gods be with you....
FYI - I only play the games I've listed as my Best Bets (i.e. I don't play the leans or the Strong Opinions), but FWIW here's the way I see this first weekend of CFB panning out.... Personally, I'm only playing the Neb/ASU Under this weekend....
Thursday, August 22
VIRGINIA (-2.5) 28 Colorado St. 23
Pass
Quick Trends: Since the middle of Lubick?s first season in ?93, the Rams are an incredible 24-6-1 ATS and 19-12 straight up as an underdog or pick in regular season games.... The hint here is it's risky to bet against Sonny Lubick in the underdog role....
Friday, August 23
WISCONSIN (-7) 34 Fresno 23
Strong Opinion on Wisky (-7)
Initially, I loved Wisky here, as the line opened at -3; however, since then it has moved to -7. I still like Wisky to cover the number, but the value has been eroded from the initial line, which makes me mad I didn't pull the trigger earlier in the week...and also makes this only a Strong Opinion on Wisky -7. Pass on this total.
Quick Trends: Fresno State is 9-4 ATS as an underdog the last 3 years. The Badgers squad is just 1-8 ATS as a home favorite the last 2 seasons.
As for the games on Saturday and Sunday, I see them like this....
Saturday, August 24
OHIO STATE (-6 ?) 24 Texas Tech 16
Pass
This one is another pass for me.... I have no idea how OSU's offense is going to do this season, but they can't be much worse than last year. What I do know is that their Defense is going to be amazing.... They should hold Kingsbury to less than spectacular numbers and get the win, but I don't know if they can cover the number. I'll have to pass on the side with a slight lean to the UNDER 47.
Quick Trend: Texas Tech is an impressive 7-2 ATS in road games in coach Leach?s two seasons.
New Mexico 16 (+12 ?) NC STATE 26
Strong Opinion on UNDER 50
I'll have to pass on the side with a Strong Opinion on the UNDER 50.
Quick Trend: The Lobos have lost only 3 times by more than 7 points in their last 20 games and they are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog of more than 8 points.
NEBRASKA (-22) 34 Arizona State 10
***UNDER Total 56 (3-star Best Bet)
The one game that really caught my eye early is the total on the Nebraska / ASU game.... This number looks to be a little out of line so early in the season, especially with the relative experience differential between the young offenses and more experienced defenses on both sides of the ball.... Barring a few untimely turnovers by ASU?s inexperienced offense and/or quick scores by Nebraska's ?Black Shirt? defense, this one should go well UNDER the posted total of 56. The number is falling fast after opening up at 59. I've seen it as low as 55.5 at some places...so, if you have the opportunity, get it now before it goes down much further.
Quick Trend: Nebraska at home under coach Solich is 7-14 ATS when favored by 16 points or more.
Florida State (-22) 38 Iowa State 10 (at Kansas City, MO)
Strong Opinion on Florida St (-22)
If this number goes south, which I don't expect it to (as I expect Joe Q. Public to hammer Florida St. closer to gametime), I will make a small play on Bobby Bowden's boyz to come out making a statement that they're back in the hunt.... Lean to UNDER 54
Quick Trend: Iowa State is just 9-18 ATS as an underdog of 14 points or more under coach McCarney.
Sunday, August 25
Arkansas State (+37) 6 VIRGINIA TECH 42
Pass
Are you kidding me? If I had to chose a side, I guess I'd take the dawg, as Va Tech has LSU on deck and may rest their starters instead of risking an injury like last season, but I usually don't play games where one side can name the score....
Quick Trend: Arkansas St. is 7-2 ATS in season openers and have covered some large numbers against Georgia and NC State the last two years. Va Tech is 1-3 ATS when favored by 30+, but the last time these two met (1997), Va Tech rolled 50-0 as a 40 point favorite.
Good luck and, as always, may the football gods be with you....
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