You win you cover?

[Valuist]

I can understand this thinking in the NFL, where most of the spreads are less than 5 pts. While there is some merit to this thinking, esp if one likes moneyline dogs, I always felt that it was a way for chalk players to justify their endless laying of points. So I decided to look at the results from the NBA so far. True, the sample size is only 32 games so far but I've always been amazed at how many NBA games are decided (ATS-wise) by the last possession of the game. Here are the results so far:

winning team covers: 23
winning non-covers: 8
pushes: 1

% games decided (ATS wise) by:
1 pt or less: 9 (27%)
3 pts or less 14 (43%)
5 pts or less 18 (56%)

I would say Vegas has done their job. Almost half the games (spread wise) have been decided by the last possession. Granted, its early but I wouldn't be surprised to see these results hold. In other words, don't assume the pts don't matter.

 

[Randercity]

Excellent point... that's why I've been effective in playing HT's. I "assume" the linemaker will be close to the final margin, and I normally play towards the opening line. If it's a low scoring game at HT, and the linemaker had a 195 total, I'm going over in the 2nd half and assume the FG% will rise with it. My strongest play so far has been going UNDER in 2nd half, when both teams are hitting well in 1st half. The numbers don't lie very often, if a team hits 60% from the field in the first half, look for a big letdown in the 2nd. Last nite we had two games where we got a chance to play a line 20 pts different than the opening line!!!

Played em both Under, and won em both! Playing your HT plays TOWARDS the line will make you a winner more times than not.

 

[Korn]

Randercity... Just curious do you play into the line for Totals only or sides too?

Thanks