Your best betting strategy

[buddy]

This is more of a money management query than gathering info on a particular game.

I suppose this would qualify as the "discipline" aspect of sportswagering (of which I have none.)

Is it minimum exposure of your bankroll and conservative wagering?

Is it the same amount on every game?

Is it a "let it ride" theory?

Do you "have to have action" on all the TV games?

Is it a combination of these plus parlays and teasers?

Do you only follow a particular conference/conferences or examine the entire card?

On any given Saturday, there are 19 different starting times in ncaa football.

Do you divide the card according to starting times and try to let it ride from say noon, 3:30, 7:00 then 10:15 or Midnight?

This year, I am bound and determined to examine the entire card (ncaa/NFL) in hopes of finding 2 "exceptional value plays" each week. These would be games that, according to my handicapping skills, would cover the number by more than 10 points. If the bets win, then "let it ride." If one or both of the bets lose, then its back to square one.

Each wager will be $50.

These 2 wagers will be my primary focus.

I will surely make other wagers, but they will be considered fun bets.

Any other opinions or strategies?

 

[Gatorbait]

Best strategy........pass

 

[He Hate Me]

3 sessions breakfeast,lunch,dinner.If lose all 3 play Hawaii HT double or nothing.

Your good weeks should read 10-3,your bad weeks need to be 5-6.When you have something real strong triple play it.If you go 10-20 over 2or3 weeks you need to quit because that means you suck.

I am good so I dont want to hear others picks,so I dont get Subliminal messages.

 

[yyz]

To quote the computer program "Joshua" from the movie Wargames:

"The only winning move is......not to play."

 

[JSMOOTH]

It's hard to beat a sportsbook...we all know that, but we try anyways.

On Saturdays, I play three games...
1 early
1 afternoon and
1 evening
(sometimes more, but not usually)
I don't let it ride, I put the same amount on everything.
On Sundays, I usually have 3 or 4 games. I don't have a "strategy", just try to find some value.
Home dogs always jump out at me and a team that is still undefeated in the 4th week, usually stops covering after that.

Also, and don't laugh, but the away team in the late games are pretty safe. There's usually 4 games late, right? Take all 4 away teams for the same amount, and it usually comes out ahead.

 

[pepin46]

js

i know you put a lot of time and effort into this, and you just mentioned an approach that i usually avoid, which is home dogs.

i find that the best value is precisely against a highly overrated home favorite, as this is usually where i find games that in my estimation belong in the -130 to -150, with the line in the -200 area. this is where i usually find value, and since my time is a bit limited, i key on these games and skip the big home dog.

i wonder if you would care to expand on these two apparently opposite strategies.


thanks,


pep

 

[hoyt]

Try this:
sat
9:00 get up do a little mor research
9:01 go ahead and mix a tody
9:02 mix one more
10:30 bet your best morning game
enjoy the game and continue to mix your drinks
12:00 head out to watch your almamater play( with your whisky of course)
Now by the time the late games come around you will know every thing you need to know to use great money management and will have great angles on the night games. This system is 95% winners, you can send me 15% of your winnings.

 

[Ripper]

Hoyt.I like your style!
LOL! Good Luck.

 

[Man O' Vegas]

A trend that I spotted that I've been using for years now in NCAAFB. Bet on any team in the 1st half, coming off a bye week playing at home, vs. a non-rested team, and the 1st half line is a pick(-110 to -150) meaning the game line is probably 5.5 or less, has been a very solid play for me. Try it, you'll like it

MOV

 

[beantownjim]

i have the best system of all.you get some of the friends i have ask them who they like and go the other way.im not that good in football so what i do when im going bad is i go opposite of myself.if the giants are favored by 6 over the eagles and i like the giants instead ill take the eagles it works you just have to have the guts to do it.bet against yourself.

 

[hello there]

I got the best strategy.....make friends with someone on the team your betting against and tell them to throw the game, you know, make the FIX. I talked to a college player, but he said I was nuts....we were just joking around though, oh well, worth a shot huh.

 

[snoozing]

Baseball is tough because the season is so long and it is hard to cap games everyday. capping the NFL is easy. I bet on the teams Nolan picks. Seriously, there are some really great FB cappers on this site. All last season (long before I ever made my first post here) I followed this forum. Great Guys and somee great cappers.

LOLTA,
Bill

 

[JSMOOTH]

Originally posted by beantownjim:
i have the best system of all.you get some of the friends i have ask them who they like and go the other way.what i do when im going bad is i go opposite of myself.if the giants are favored by 6 over the eagles and i like the giants instead ill take the eagles it works you just have to have the guts to do it.bet against yourself.

so in other words....
YOU SUCK

 

[JSMOOTH]

Originally posted by pepin46:
js

i know you put a lot of time and effort into this, and you just mentioned an approach that i usually avoid, which is home dogs.

i find that the best value is precisely against a highly overrated home favorite,

i wonder if you would care to expand on these two apparently opposite strategies.


thanks,


pep

A lot of it depends on who's playing. For instance, last season, ( And I hate the Browns ) but they were always the home dog, and they covered more times than you might remember. Just an example.

 

[crazyjoe]

buddy
drop the fun bets.

 

[visionary]

you cant make money gambling....if you are in it for the money STOP NOW!...if you want to have fun and get high...continue pressin and bettin...thing is when you are out on the street, hanging out at the local otb with the rest of the junkies and havent showered in a month..you wont be feelin so high....lol.
GL to all.

 

[buddy]

Visionary,

I think you might have a tough time covincing Stanley of not being able to make money at sportsbetting.

LY, Stanley was over +200 units in the golf forum.

 

[Subagoto]

I generally follow these self imposed rules: Same number of units on every game! If it is a high fav, then I just win less money. Some may call that stupid, but I like it. As my roll grows during the year I will increase the number of units slighty, but not much, but it always the same number on anything I am on. If there are early games and I take a beating on the ones I am on, I lay off the evening games no matter how much I like them. Again, probably stupid, but just my preference. I sometimes do what I call "what the hell" parlays. Mostly in NHL cuz I am best in that. 3 or 4 teams and never for more than a unit. That is rare that I do those, However, almost every weekend in NFL I will parlay all the games I am taking for like $10. Who knows when you will go 6 or 8 and 0! Anyway, the same amount on each game keeps me from chasing good money after bad, and not significantly increasing my bets as my bank increases helps not give too much back if I hit a bad streak. Keeping the units the same and not unloading on a "lock" is the best money management I know of.

 

[buddy]

Subagoto,

You and I seem to have very similar money management styles.

For years, I have bet the same amount on every game. That was my strong point.

My weakness was/is that I bet WAY too many games and WAY too many "what the hell" parlays.

All in all, I was +$900 for the ncaa/NFL year. A good year for me.

I will probably bet the same way this year, but I am going to add two wagers (one in NCAA/ one in NFL) that I am going to rollover on each win. If it loses, it's back to the beginning. I just think 6 or 7 in a row is very possible.

 

[pepin46]

js

looks like we are getting bb and fb mixed up here. my thinking on betting vs. overvalued home favorites was in baseball exclusively.

the nfl is a totally different approach where i handicap the line, and quite frankly, the home fav or dog does not mean that much to me, as i key on line differentials, for whatever the reason, which may or may not include home or visiting favorites.

i guess most of us are near the cross-road of switching approaches to handicapping between these two sports, and it could be a very confusing period.

i have noticed some threads start with baseball and end up with football, and i'm probably guilty of that as well.

pep