ZURICH CLASSIC OF NEW ORLEANS

[KMc10]

Obviously this is a new course this year so no course form to go off so bets should probabally be kept to a minimum, but here are my fancies:

DAVIS LOVE III 1 point ew @ 16/1 (Betfred, Stan James)

A player who has long suffered from back and neck problems, Davis always seems to perform better after a break of a week or two and when the weather is fine. Having rested last week and the weather forcast for the week looking good, this tounament could be set up perfectly for Davis' first tour win since 2003. As long as he turns up fit in Louisianna it'll be difficult to see him out of contention.

GREG OWEN 0.5 points ew @ 50/1 (Generally available)

Greg is a player who has always been accurate off the tee, but whos putting has let him down. However, it seemed as though things might be changing last week as he managed to finish T4th in Houston in what is his first season on the PGA Tour, finishing 5th for GIR and T10th for Putts per GIR. The new course will put him on a level playing field with everyone else in terms of course knowledge and as long as he manages to keep hold of his hot putter Greg represents a good value each way bet at 50/1.

 

[Stanley]

Hi Kev - good to see you on here

Did look closely at Owen myself, but struggled to find any examples of him putting two good weeks together

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1.5pts)

Davis Love to win 16/1 e.w. @ Stan James and BetFred
A new course and a market dominated by one player who really has yet to achieve his dominating game of 2004. This would be the recipe for a first-time winner, but at over 7,500 yards and over 45 acres of fairways, this is another 'let it rip' course and that rules out a lot of the shorter hitters. It does not rule out Love who can certainly beat Vijay when on his game and with a 2nd place finish at Hilton Head two weeks ago when he topped the driving distance stats, there seems a decent chance that he will be more Dr. Jekyll than Mr. Hyde this week.

Charles Howell to win 33/1 e.w. @ BetInternet, Ladbrokes and BlueSq
Howell is another who can be counted upon to frustrate more times than not, but there is no substitute for talent and he has plenty of that from tee to green. Last week he ranked in the top-5 in driving distance, driving accuracy and greens in regulation, but just couldn't hole the putts on the large greens at Redstone. This week's greens are considerably smaller and that should help. If he plays as well from tee to green again this week, he will surely gain his third top-3 finish of the year.

 

[phar lap]

Long course with small greens.....sounds ideal for VJ but how can you possibly take the odds? Anyway, I usually only bet head-to-heads but given it is a new course I will just have a couple of straight out bets for interests sake and leave it at that. These guys seem good value to my small mind.

Steve Elkington to win 80/1 e.w at SPortingbet
Elk helped in the design of the course so that may be an advantage. But definately in his favour is his recent good form and high level of GIR's (especially considering the small greens). Only downside is his lack of distance off the tee.

Bo Van Pelt to win 100/1 e.w at Ladbrokes.
Is also very high up in GIR with above 70% over the last couple of months. Is not short off the tee, and is coming off a strong performence in Houston where he finished 7th.

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

Charles Warren 1u ew 150-1 SportingBet

 

[Whalers Rule]

Kelly Gibson 750-1 1/4 unit e.w at Sportingbet

Along with Steve Elkington had input on course design. So if nothing else should have played the course numerous times as he is from New Orleans.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

agree with KM on caution this week--been getting mixed reports on size of fairways and rough so will prob wait till viewing 1st day to venture out much.

Thought Elks Q&A http://www.pgatour.com/story/8420864
on course was interesting and confirmed my suspicions it might not be power course only.Lots of these long par 4's play downwind with prevailing wind.Was happy to see Elks comparison to Whistling Straights course (04 Tour Champ) both around 7.500 yards.
One thing for sure is Singh eats these TPC style for lunch in past and any return to putting form could make this long day for rest of field.
Will venture out on a couple

Herron 9.25 (8.25/1) to place @ Cbet
Like him at these odds on any course considering field

and B Davis E/W 80/1 w/o Singh

USPGA Tour - Zurich Classic of New Orleans
Outright Without Singh - Each Way 1/4 1,2,3,4,5 - Bet until: April 28, 2005 12:00 PM
DAVIS, Brian @81.00, Stake: 10.00, EW: Yes

absolutly could not pass on this one.
Davis ranks high in total driving and scrambling (small greens)
Length not a prob last week finishing 7th more importantly length and similiar set up against the strongest field in PGA Champ at Whistling Straights not a prob for him with T 13th and if Singh finishes where expected will extend place portion (20/1)to top 6.
Not a bad bang for a buck.

 

[Another Steve]

Show Me Your .....Plays

Show Me Your .....Plays

I'm sure the beads are flying this week.

Tim Herron WINS NEW ORLEANS CLA+30.00

Going with Lumpy as an Outright, think he'll be on the board Sunday will Vijay


Matchups for the week, scared of going against Toms but believe Dimarco will be ready after the Masters

Joe Ogilvie OV/Bob Estes @-1.35
Chris DiMarco OV/David Toms @+1.05
Joe Durant OV/Dudley Hart @-1.20
Scott McCarron OV/Kevin Na @-1.35
Tim Herron OV/Jerry Kelly @-1.30

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

will venture out on a few before viewing--did get to view course on Golf Channel however don't know when it was filmed--does have lots of water that comes into play. Did finally see remarks from a couple players there this week (Ogilvie and Dimarco) who said layout was very tough.

72 holes
Toms -120 over Dimarco @ WTTS
Howell +108 over Dimarco @ WSEX
Love -105 over Dimarco @ IAS
Durant -110 over Hart @ OLY

1st rd
Toms -110 over Dimarco @ WTTS
J Ogilvie -110 over T Clark @ WTTS

1st rd props Birdies or better (all -1/2 stroke)
Toms -105 over Dimarco
Love -1/2 over McCarron
Singh -125 over Clark

Certainly don't like to put so many eggs in one basket but I can't see this layout favoring Dimarco--Not expecting emotional bounce as he followed with a 6th after losing playoff at PGA Champ but this course looks like a nightmare to a short irratic driver from what I have seen of it.

 

[lostinamerica]

OUTRIGHTS:

Steve Elkington(80/1) e.w. @ Bet365

Joe Durant(100/1) e.w. @ Bet 365

Tim Clark(45/1) e.w. @ 5dimes


MATCHUPS:

Toms(-115) over Harrington (Tournament) @ 5dimes

Ogilvie(+110) over DiMarco (Tournament) @ 5dimes


Dogs a/k/a King of Props - Great job last week making it look easier than it ever was, ever is, or ever will be. :clap:

GL

 

[glf163]

Elk DNS :cursin:

 

[lostinamerica]

OUTRIGHTS:

Jonathan Kaye(40/1)(1/4 for 1-2-3-4) e.w. @ Bet365
- - Has many top finishes when he gets his opportunities, has many top finishes when he is in the mix after the first round, has a decent pairing going, and is just about due.

GL

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Prop totals
rd 1
1st rd props Birdies or better (all -1/2 stroke)
Toms -105 over Dimarco loss (1-7)
Love -1/2 over McCarron win (4-3)
Singh -125 over Clark win (8-5)

Toms managed one birdie on last hole but would have made little diff.Dimarco extremely sharp with iron play.Was quite surprised to see lots of short hitters play so well in afternoon winds.

props rd 2 birdies or better
Singh (- 1/2) - 120 over Clark loss (4-4)

3rd rd prop Birdies or Better
Singh -135 vs P Price loss (4-4)

Nasty-- while odds were high thought them more than justified--#2 vs clown that missed 4 of last 5 cuts- rank 100th in GIRs-- 139th total driv--spotting him 20yds plus off tee in wet conditions

Been getting some good bounces--had a few of these coming.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

props rd 2 birdies or better
Singh (- 1/2) - 120 over Clark
Liked it yesterday--like it today.
Have several others (especially girs)but lines continue to move in my favor so will wait till last minute.I think there might be some surprises today
Got late start today and haven't looked at matches yet but if anything like yesterdays just as well.Course set-up as expected-no rough what so ever.Thought am tees and length would have adv but sure didn't in ones I played.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Had Singh already penciled in as win in prop yesterday with Clark needing to birdie final 2 holes to tie--which he did

3rd rd prop Birdies or Better
Singh -135 vs P Price

One thing about this course is accuracy means 0 unless you hit it in water. Numerous players have hit less than 30% of fairways and busted par.Classic example was Pertovic in 1st rd was in bottom 5 players of field in DD AND DA and hits 13 GIR's--amazing.
Hopefully they play these tees to the 7,500 yds this weekend which they haven't so far.

 

[lostinamerica]

Saturday:

Lickliter(-118) over O'Hair @ 5dimes

GL

 

[Stanley]

FINAL RESULT: 0-2; -3.00pts

Love 31st
Howell 59th

Love did have a chance of a top-5 payout, but when within two shots of that mark he drove into the fairway bunker on the 10th hole, had to play out sideways, ran up a double-bogey and that was the end of that tournament.

PGA Tour ytd
Outrights: 8-47; +4.51pts
Matchups: 16-15; +3.41pts

All Tours ytd
Outrights: 39-172; +41.38pts
Matchups: 70-50; +67.03pts