If you want to wager on the links, you need a pretty solid golf betting strategy to have some success. While the spring and summer wear on, bettors need to find something to pass the time until football begins again. Golf is the perfect sport to fill the gap.
Key Points
– Golf betting strategy will depend upon a bettor’s bankroll.
– A solid golf betting strategy takes into account factors like course history, stats, and weather.
Wagering on Golf
Golf betting is unlike betting on any other sport. The team with the most points, runs, goals, etc. wins the majority of the time when a game is played between two teams.
In a single golf tournament, there are typically over 120 players. The objective is to shoot the lowest four-round total. This remains the same week to week, but the specifics of each tournament are very different.
The focus on a particular element of a golfer’s game shifts each week as the PGA Tour makes stops at various golf courses throughout the United States. Driving distance is a significant factor over the course of one week at a course like Bethpage Black. Players with long drives like Brooks Koepka and Dustin Johnson are ones to watch for.
The emphasis shifts the following week to players who are consistent and accurate with their short irons on a course like TPC River Highlands. This course is nearly 600 yards shorter than Bethpage.
Stats can only get you so far. Take a look at Gary Woodland, the 2019 US Open champion. Woodland came into the competition with a scrambling ranking of 169th in the world. If you watched any of the tournament, you would know how important scrambling was to Woodland’s success. He finished -13 after the four rounds.
The point here is to provide you with enough information about golf betting strategy to help you produce more wins than losses.
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Golf Betting Strategy – Distribute the Wealth
Despite all your effort and dedication to the research, betting on golf is essentially a numbers game. Given the size of the fields (more than 120 players in the majority of events), the likelihood that you will hit an outright winner is slim.
You must have a sizable bankroll and be able to distribute it among a few players who you believe can give you a good return on your investment. You can cover your bases in a number of different ways.
Begin by selecting the top three or four players in a tournament. Place your bets on favorites that you believe will win and provide you with a positive return on your investment.
Betting on the best golfers in the world is never a bad idea. However, given that only one of them has a chance of winning and that their odds are pretty slim, it’s likely that a bettor could go an extended period of time before finding a winner.
One golf betting strategy could be to wager the most on your top candidate. Then, pick two or three mid-priced golfers and a longshot or two. This, of course, will depend upon the bankroll available. When you hit on a mid-range winner or a long shot, your investment will be well worth it.
Bet the Tournament Matchups
Additionally, betting on tournament matchups is a great way to make money without having to hope that your player outlasts the other 120-plus golfers competing in the event.
Betting on outright winners is very lucrative because of the odds. However, you will have more success in betting head-to-head matchups in golf. These matchups pair two golfers together and bettors wager on one to have the better score. Bettors that hit on a high percentage of these matchups can increase their bankrolls.
One of the easiest things to do is enlist the help of pro handicappers. They can help you sort through the fluff and find solid picks.
When looking at golf matchups, any handicapper will tell you it’s important to look at factors like course history, current form, and the weather. Keep in mind that some golfers play extremely well or incredibly poor on different courses. If a player has played well on a certain course, that should be a factor in betting a tournament matchup.
Golf Betting Strategy – Find Value
This is nothing new. In any sport, bettors are always looking for value. It’s no different in golf. One of the easiest ways to find value is by shopping around for the best odds.
Bettors will see some variance in golf odds from sportsbook to sportsbook. Whereas Koepka might be given +750 odds to win a certain tournament at one online sportsbook, another has him listed at +900.
If your handicapping points you toward backing Koepka, you will have found more value in betting on him at +900. If you believe the probability of Koepka winning is greater than the implied probability, you have value and, in this case, would take him at +900.
Keep in mind that sportsbooks always pay out more money when they think something is less likely to occur. The second sportsbook, in this case, doesn’t believe Koepka has a great chance of winning. You do and that’s where the value is.