Free sports handicapping picks. Friend or foe?
It would be easy to answer this question with one single response, you get what you pay for. However, there is much more to the actual sports handicapping process that needs to be discussed when it comes to betting using free picks.
Source for Free Sports Handicapping Picks
At the top of the list is the source of the free pick.
Many sports betting sites will employ pro bettors to write up game previews that also offer a suggested betting strategy. If the source of the free pick has legitimate professional handicapping credentials, then there is some betting value to be found.
The main benefit of reading game previews with suggested betting picks is for the information they contain. The pros already understand what is important to the actual handicapping process. What added information is just interesting filler. Free sports handicapping picks need to be taken with a grain of salt.
Reliable Sources & Trends
For example, a pro handicapper game preview might offer more accurate insight into a team’s injury situation as opposed to a general sports information write-up. The pros tend to have more reliable sources at hand to determine who is playing and who is sitting that game out.
The pros also have access to betting trends that could have an impact on an actual outcome.
The fact that a team covered in its last six road games on a Tuesday is more of a coincidence than a viable betting trend. If that same team has covered in their last six road games overall. This could be considered relevant to the matchup at hand.
Betting trends that cover recent head-to-head matchups tend to offer more value.
Familiarity in a matchup does enhance future predictability. Recently, Tampa Bay upset New Orleans in the NFL playoffs after losing both regular season games in lopsided decisions. It is hard to beat a team three times in one NFL season.
Marketing – Free Sports Handicapping Picks
Free picks are often used as a marketing tool for pro handicappers selling selection packages. If they want to make a good first impression. They will release some solid plays as part of any no-cost promotional offer.
As a recreational bettor that is used to winning and losing an equal number of bets on a regular basis. You always have to keep in mind that the pros lose quite a few bets as well. If a pro can maintain a 60 percent winning rate over a long period of time. They are doing quite well for themselves.
To put this in another light, this would give any free pick a 40 percent chance or higher of being wrong. There is a very thin line when it comes to winning and losing sports bets.
52.4% Win Rate is the Breakeven Mark
While anyone can get on a hot streak, you can rest assured that a losing streak is lurking right around the corner.
One practice to avoid is performing your own handicapping efforts to come up with a pick and then checking it against any free picks you may come across. It is easy to let objective handicapping turn into a subjective bet.
You either have to trust your own sports betting instincts. Or turn the whole process over to the pros by buying your picks. It is extremely easy to get distracted by all the noise out there. This is especially true for the biggest games in the biggest betting sports.
Free sports handicapping picks can turn a profit. But you need a great source and stick to your betting plan.