I believe the last player to win a U.S. Open at over par was Andy North at +1 at Cherry Hills in 1984. Anyone at par is going to win this without a playoff . . . Dave Pelz (Team Mickelson) got it exactly right on Thursday night when he said that if you let it get away from you over a stretch of holes on this course, there is virtually no chance to get it back. Marginal shots get killed (Woods), and the greens are too tough to make all the grinding 4 and 8 foot par putts that are so commonly associated with past U.S. Open champions . . . Sort of makes it tough to speculate on the prospects of any single player, but . . .
Harrington - A Father's Day special with fervent Irish support, sans rainbow?
Oberholser - I forgot to mention that ante-post pick in May was made significantly on the basis of his Ryder Cup ambitions. I really think he's smack dab where he expected to be this week, with his game in order on a course that suits.
Montgomerie - I believe he didn't play a practice round Wednesday because he played so well on Tuesday, which seems about right. I don't think he will, but I actually believe Monty is the ONLY player that could separate himself from the field today by 3 or more strokes (a few dollars on the six-shooter). I do know he carried my cash well while paired with Woods on Saturday at St. Andrews.
Bjorn - There's quite a personal history from similar positions in big events, and maybe his bold putting sets him apart for a run.
Mickelson - If he's finding the short grass on the front nine, he'll be in a fearsome position when the sun goes down tonight.
Duvall emerging from under the radar was not a surprise for one huge day - but moving up the rest of the way and finishing inside the Top Ten would be massively impressive after sounding off about what he knows; Ogilvy has seemed the most Houdini-like in doing exactly his thing; Stricker, McDowell, Poulter and Ferrie were all trending to strong performances, but the early days for being in the frame are now over.
Three decent plays, although my earlier play was the strongest:
Matchups:
Bjorn(-110) over Funk @ TheGreek
Montgomerie(+120) over Ogilvy @ TheGreek
Cink(-125) over Stenson @Bet365
GL