Run em Thursday

[Jord20]

All small...

Towson-2.5
Wright +2.5
Monmouth +2.5
James Mad -13
fiu +7
green bay +14
Elon -3.5
Kenn +3.5
s dak st +2.5
illinois -4

 

[loophole]

i played towson on the ml. fwiw, t-rank has them @+2.8 and sevenovertimes lines them @ +2, making them a "billy blastoff" kind of play. g/l tonight.

 

[Jord20]

i played towson on the ml. fwiw, t-rank has them @+2.8 and sevenovertimes lines them @ +2, making them a "billy blastoff" kind of play. g/l tonight.

Haha. BillyBlastoff. Amazing.

Thanks loop

 

[loophole]

lol, guy had quite a run awhile back. i still use a modification of his system as one of my handicapping tools. sweep 'em tonight.

 

[Bombs]

All small...

Towson-2.5
Wright +2.5
Monmouth +2.5
James Mad -13
fiu +7
green bay +14
Elon -3.5
Kenn +3.5
s dak st +2.5
illinois -4

spent 30 minutes trying to figure out how N Kentucky is -7

 

[loophole]

t-rank has n ky -1, sevenovertimes same -1. another modified bb play.

 

[Jord20]

Yeah, I was confused by that one also

 

[Bombs]

t-rank has n ky -1, sevenovertimes same -1. another modified bb play.

I just passed that one. Detroit is better than their record.

 

[Real_Vision]

I just passed that one. Detroit is better than their record.

That, and nku is like 3-15 ATS. Also not facts here, but theyve gotta be bottom 25% or worse in scoring offense., and maybe middle of the pack nationally (probably bottom 40%) in scoring defense. They dont rebound, shoot 3’s… and for an encore, 2 wins on the road all year, 1 cover on the road i can think of in horizon league play.

Sorry kind of a horizon league geek

Probably gonna cover this or be close. I played under 137.5, both teams are terrible offensively.

 

[Jord20]

Lesson again - don't worry about the weird, potential shady stuff, just bet the value

 

[Jord20]

Ducks +5 and ML

 

[Real_Vision]

Lesson again - don't worry about the weird, potential shady stuff, just bet the value

U get to a point where u either know what u’re doing or not. What used to look like “traps” or someone must know something 10 years ago (and i’d avoid / overthink) now i just fire away

 

[Bombs]

While it's easy to say that, I do know these teams and when something doesn't add up like that I avoid unless I can at least make sense of it.

 

[Jord20]

U get to a point where u either know what u’re doing or not. What used to look like “traps” or someone must know something 10 years ago (and i’d avoid / overthink) now i just fire away

This is so soooo much more true these days

 

[Jord20]

While it's easy to say that, I do know these teams and when something doesn't add up like that I avoid unless I can at least make sense of it.

Smell it. I felt the opposite. I didn’t know then enough or gave up to date info enough to feel confident.

 

[Bombs]

This is so soooo much more true these days

The number of sharp square plays is staggering. To me it's not so much that there are not traps it is who the traps are set for. Have to continuously adapt.

 

[Real_Vision]

Exactly right.

Lines are set by stats and trends.

Ignore the trends, play stats, you see value mirages.

Ignore stats play trends u end up on the wrong end of that robert morris / IU INDY drubbing.

But u cant not play a spot because it seems too easy or too good to be true.

Instincts and not stalking but knowing the teams work for me

 

[LordofBalls]

I don't watch em every game (cuz Cronin bugs me lol), but this is the best I've seen UCLA play in a long time

Stefanovic is like the ONLY GUY I recognize from last year's team, but they're shooting very well as a group, and Oregon's struggling.
Can't throw a pea in the ocean.. but the effort is there.

hope they can make a few and quickly

EDIT
Cronin seems to be making an effort not to be such an a**hole on the sideline, maybe his doctor told him he was gonna keel over if he kept it up lol
UCLA's shooting lights out from everywhere.. Oregon just needs to get a few stops, and make a few shots and they can get bk in it

 

[Real_Vision]

I don't watch em every game (cuz Cronin bugs me lol), but this is the best I've seen UCLA play in a long time

Stefanovic is like the ONLY GUY I recognize from last year's team, but they're shooting very well as a group, and Oregon's struggling.
Can't throw a pea in the ocean.. but the effort is there.

hope they can make a few and quickly

EDIT
Cronin seems to be making an effort not to be such an a**hole on the sideline, maybe his doctor told him he was gonna keel over if he kept it up lol
UCLA's shooting lights out from everywhere.. Oregon just needs to get a few stops, and make a few shots and they can get bk in it

Dude, ucla is one of my fav teams to bet, even tho im an east coast fella.

They are streaky—at least last few years—they have 4-5 gm stretches where they look awful (esp last season) then win 6 straight. Last year it was going well early then an absolute pummeling at utah sent them into a tailspin… not sure exact numbers but after a miserable stretch they got red hot again… just like this season is shaping up. Except this was around the time they found their footing last year, this yr theyre 6-7 gms long on a heater.


I would be cautiously optimistic, the wisc win was impressive but they’ve not fared well vs the “big ten” traditional teams, feb has ohio st, purdue, mich st, illinois and im forgetting one? Sets up for another potential season level momentum swing…