1/1 Bowls

[Smitty]

Happy New Year, my fellow madjackers.

Reliaquest

Hard to believe it's that time of year already... Reliaquest Bowl time!!! When young high schoolers sign that letter of intent with LSU and Wisconsin, they dream of this day.

i really can't come up with much for this game. After LSU destroyed Purdue 63-7 in a bowl game last year, it's hard to imagine they're taking this game very seriously. However, I can't trust a really bad Wisconsin team. It took a couple years longer than I expected, but Paul Chryst dragged this program down. Their defensive #s are solid, but they are flattered by a lot of weak offenses in the Big 10.

All I got is...

Wisconsin TT over (23.5) 2.4 to win 2. LSU's defense is awful even when they care about the game. Wisconsin has basically nothing at RB today, so Mordecai is gonna have to throw a lot. Not necessarily a good thing, but hopefully he can find a couple open guys against that terrible LSU defense.

 

[TurdofDoom]

GL Smitty!

 

[Smitty]

Fiesta

Another one I really don't know what to do with. Liberty's non-conference schedule was Bowling Green, Buffalo, Old Dominion, and UMass. We have no idea if they're any good. Liberty led the country with 303 rushing yards/game. 70% of their plays are runs. Oregon is 18th, allowing 3.4 yards/carry. If Oregon starts putting up points early, will Liberty have to throw more than they want to? Will Liberty even have much success against the best run defense they've seen this year, assuming Oregon shows up? Salter has had an impressive year (again, all against bad teams), but he hasn't thrown more than 26 passes in a game this year. If he has to throw 45 times, will his arm get tired? So many unknowns in this game.

About all I can come up with...

Oregon 1H TT over (23.5) 4.6 to win 4. My hope is that Oregon comes out aggressive to, you know, establish dominance over the Flamers (such a weird nickname for a religious school, but whatever).

 

[Smitty]

GL Smitty!

thanks, ToD, you too!

 

[ejthree]

Fiesta

Another one I really don't know what to do with. Liberty's non-conference schedule was Bowling Green, Buffalo, Old Dominion, and UMass. We have no idea if they're any good. Liberty led the country with 303 rushing yards/game. 70% of their plays are runs. Oregon is 18th, allowing 3.4 yards/carry. If Oregon starts putting up points early, will Liberty have to throw more than they want to? Will Liberty even have much success against the best run defense they've seen this year, assuming Oregon shows up? Salter has had an impressive year (again, all against bad teams), but he hasn't thrown more than 26 passes in a game this year. If he has to throw 45 times, will his arm get tired? So many unknowns in this game.

About all I can come up with...

Oregon 1H TT over (23.5) 4.6 to win 4. My hope is that Oregon comes out aggressive to, you know, establish dominance over the Flamers (such a weird nickname for a religious school, but whatever).

Oregon going to hang a number on Liberty i see a score like 63-14.. Love your play just think your're a lil lite on the units...GL Smitty...

 

[Smitty]

Oregon going to hang a number on Liberty i see a score like 63-14.. Love your play just think your're a lil lite on the units...GL Smitty...


well, fwiw, i actually bet double that. just couldn't recommend any more to other people.

but now you got me thinking about putting even more on it. I can't pull the trigger on their TT for the game. i can't forget their 2nd half against colorado, when they put up 35 in the 1st half, but only 7 in the 2nd. gotta believe if they have a big lead, they'll do the same thing... put in the 2nd & 3rd teamers. who may still be good enough to put up points on liberty.

always appreciate the input.

 

[Smitty]

Citrus

Only one question here... how does Iowa rebound from the Big 10 championship game? We have some recent history to look at... in 2021, Iowa got shellacked by Michigan in the Big 10 championship, then played Kentucky in... *checks notes*... the Citrus Bowl. UK was -2.5 and scored a late TD to win 20-17. HOWEVER... UK had their starting QB (a fella by the name of Will Levis) in that game. They also had their starting RB (Chris Rodriguez). Today, Tennessee is missing QB Milton and their top 2 RBs. They are starting freshman QB Iamaleava. Who you'd REALLY expect to hit the transfer portal with a name like that, right? IT'S RIGHT THERE IN HIS NAME!!! Ok, we now return to your regularly scheduled programming. Iamastaya, which should be his name today, only threw 26 passes, in mop-up duty against bad teams. Today he's facing the Iowa defense. Assuming they show up.

In the interest of full disclosure... I have Iowa +6 to close out a parlay. Which means Tennessee is going to crush them.

That said, as long as Iowa doesn't hand Tennessee a very short field a couple times, I just don't see Tennessee moving the ball. At the very least, Iowa should have a chance to win this game.

Iowa (ML) 4 to win 7.4
Tennessee TT under (21.5) 7.2 to win 6
Tennessee 1H TT under (9.5) 4 to win 4.4

 

[ChasDee]

Dude...I enjoy your write-ups...lots of information and I really love your wit!!
Happy New Year!

 

[Smitty]

Rose

In years past, this would have been clearcut. SEC against Big10 in a meaningful game. But this year... I feel like it's a much bigger question mark. As I mentioned before, this is not a vintage Alabama defense. They give up 3.7 yards/carry. Not bad, but certainly not great. Michigan depends on their ground game, but Corum is not an explosive runner, averaging 4.7 yards/carry. And Edwards has been surprising quiet this year, only running for 382 yards and averaging 3.5/carry.

I know at least one particular Michigan fan here who gets upset when I say this, but I still haven't seen anything from McCarthy that makes me trust him in a big game. And he's going to have to have success throwing the ball today. Or will he? I think the big X factor is going to be McCarthy running the ball. That's where he can do some damage against Alabama, who traditionally struggles against running QBs. If I could bet McCarthy over for rushing yards, I would do it. I'm guessing there's a number out there somewhere. 25 maybe?

Michigan's defensive #s are outstanding. But, again, the Big10 was awful this year. Michigan only played one reasonably decent offense all year (sorry, Keith), and Ohio St outgained them by 40 yards. Alabama has faced some decent offenses. They held Ole Miss to 10, LSU to 28, and Georgia to 24.

Until a Big10 team proves that can beat a decent SEC team in a game that matters, I'm sticking with the SEC. I wouldn't be shocked if today is that day, because Alabama wasn't the best team in the SEC this year.

Alabama (ML) 6 units
Over (45.5) 2 units
Alabama TT over 22.5 4.6 to win 4

 

[Smitty]

Dude...I enjoy your write-ups...lots of information and I really love your wit!!
Happy New Year!

Thanks, man, I appreciate that. Happy New Year to you as well!

 

[ManofWar]

Rose

If I could bet McCarthy over for rushing yards, I would do it. I'm guessing there's a number out there somewhere. 25 maybe?

Sold me, I'm betting over 15.5 -130

 

[Smitty]

Sold me, I'm betting over 15.5 -130

fuck, i love it. i'll be rooting hard for michigan's only yards to come via mccarthy's legs.

 

[Smitty]

well, fwiw, i actually bet double that. just couldn't recommend any more to other people.

but now you got me thinking about putting even more on it. I can't pull the trigger on their TT for the game. i can't forget their 2nd half against colorado, when they put up 35 in the 1st half, but only 7 in the 2nd. gotta believe if they have a big lead, they'll do the same thing... put in the 2nd & 3rd teamers. who may still be good enough to put up points on liberty.

no, really, i was not worried one bit during the 1st quarter. nope, not worried at all.

 

[ejthree]

Happy New Year, my fellow madjackers.

Reliaquest

Hard to believe it's that time of year already... Reliaquest Bowl time!!! When young high schoolers sign that letter of intent with LSU and Wisconsin, they dream of this day.

i really can't come up with much for this game. After LSU destroyed Purdue 63-7 in a bowl game last year, it's hard to imagine they're taking this game very seriously. However, I can't trust a really bad Wisconsin team. It took a couple years longer than I expected, but Paul Chryst dragged this program down. Their defensive #s are solid, but they are flattered by a lot of weak offenses in the Big 10.

All I got is...

Wisconsin TT over (23.5) 2.4 to win 2. LSU's defense is awful even when they care about the game. Wisconsin has basically nothing at RB today, so Mordecai is gonna have to throw a lot. Not necessarily a good thing, but hopefully he can find a couple open guys against that terrible LSU defense.

Tks for the winner Smitty, followed the chum to the cashiers cage Wiskey team total...

 

[Smitty]

Sugar

Last game of the day. Full disclosure, I am off to a late start on my 1/1 tradition of eating nothing but 7-layer dip and drinking nothing but mimosas. I started that 2nd part because there was always leftover champagne from the night before. Now, we don't even open the bottle NYE. So I'm nearly halfway through that bottle now. I don't think it'll influence WHO I'm betting in the Sugar Bowl, but it may influence how MUCH I bet.

I'm not relying much on last year's matchup, because that was a meaningless game. Just a couple notes... last year, Washington had a much stronger run game, and they ran for 158 on just 28 carries against Texas. This year... well, they're probably not hitting those #s. For the 2nd year in a row, Texas is coming into this matchup at less than full strength at RB. Brooks went down with the ACL injury. Baxter averages a full 1.5 yards/carry less than Brooks. And Jaydon Blue, who has seen his carries increase since Brooks went down, averaged 6.1/carry, same as Brooks. But he did all his damage in one game, against Texas Tech. Take that game out, and he ran for 218 on 46 carries (4.7 per carry). So while UW is certainly vulnerable to the run, I'm not sure Texas will be able to exploit it.

Because teams have been unable to run on Texas this year (2.87/carry, 4th in the country), they have given up 241 yards/game through the air. But only 6.75/att, which is very solid. Obviously Penix will be throwing the ball all over the place. He only averaged 5.3 yards/att against Texas in that bowl game. I expect to see more of the same this year... a lot of yards for Penix, but not doing a lot of damage.

Very similar situation for Washington's defense. They give up 263 passing yards/game, which is 119th in the country. But they only allow 6.57/att, which is 23rd in the country.

Both QBs will need to be patient.

3rd downs will be interesting. Washington converts 48.3%, 10th in the country. Texas only converts 38.5%, which is 69th. However, the defensive #s are flipped. Texas is 2nd in the country while Washington is 81st. So we have a very good 3rd down offense against a very good 3rd down defense and, on the other side, a mediocre 3rd down offense against a mediocre 3rd down defense.

Washington is far better in the red zone, scoring a TD 70% of the time. Texas only scores a TD 49% of the time. That could be critical. Defensively, both teams allow a TD about 46% of red zone drives.

I just saw Iowa handed Tennessee a TD for the 2nd time in the 2nd half. Wonderful.

Overall, Texas played a pretty weak schedule. The Big12 is still weak. I know, I know, they won at Tuscaloosa. I'm not dismissing that, but I'm discounting it, because it was Milroe's second game as a starter and he was clearly in over his head. While the PAC12 isn't exactly great, UW still had to beat a pretty good Oregon team twice.

One last factor for me... Kalen DeBoer vs. Steve Sarkisian. Big edge to UW.

Washington (+4) 6 units
Washington (ML) 2 to win 3
Under (62) 2 units.

 

[Smitty]

Tks for the winner Smitty, followed the chum to the cashiers cage Wiskey team total...

Glad I could return the favor. Thank YOU for the encouragement... I did double my Oregon 1H wager. Was not excited about that for the first 15 minutes, but all's well that ends well. I hope they put up some more points for ya.

A very happy 2024 to you, sir.

 

[ejthree]

Sugar

Last game of the day. Full disclosure, I am off to a late start on my 1/1 tradition of eating nothing but 7-layer dip and drinking nothing but mimosas. I started that 2nd part because there was always leftover champagne from the night before. Now, we don't even open the bottle NYE. So I'm nearly halfway through that bottle now. I don't think it'll influence WHO I'm betting in the Sugar Bowl, but it may influence how MUCH I bet.

I'm not relying much on last year's matchup, because that was a meaningless game. Just a couple notes... last year, Washington had a much stronger run game, and they ran for 158 on just 28 carries against Texas. This year... well, they're probably not hitting those #s. For the 2nd year in a row, Texas is coming into this matchup at less than full strength at RB. Brooks went down with the ACL injury. Baxter averages a full 1.5 yards/carry less than Brooks. And Jaydon Blue, who has seen his carries increase since Brooks went down, averaged 6.1/carry, same as Brooks. But he did all his damage in one game, against Texas Tech. Take that game out, and he ran for 218 on 46 carries (4.7 per carry). So while UW is certainly vulnerable to the run, I'm not sure Texas will be able to exploit it.

Because teams have been unable to run on Texas this year (2.87/carry, 4th in the country), they have given up 241 yards/game through the air. But only 6.75/att, which is very solid. Obviously Penix will be throwing the ball all over the place. He only averaged 5.3 yards/att against Texas in that bowl game. I expect to see more of the same this year... a lot of yards for Penix, but not doing a lot of damage.

Very similar situation for Washington's defense. They give up 263 passing yards/game, which is 119th in the country. But they only allow 6.57/att, which is 23rd in the country.

Both QBs will need to be patient.

3rd downs will be interesting. Washington converts 48.3%, 10th in the country. Texas only converts 38.5%, which is 69th. However, the defensive #s are flipped. Texas is 2nd in the country while Washington is 81st. So we have a very good 3rd down offense against a very good 3rd down defense and, on the other side, a mediocre 3rd down offense against a mediocre 3rd down defense.

Washington is far better in the red zone, scoring a TD 70% of the time. Texas only scores a TD 49% of the time. That could be critical. Defensively, both teams allow a TD about 46% of red zone drives.

I just saw Iowa handed Tennessee a TD for the 2nd time in the 2nd half. Wonderful.

Overall, Texas played a pretty weak schedule. The Big12 is still weak. I know, I know, they won at Tuscaloosa. I'm not dismissing that, but I'm discounting it, because it was Milroe's second game as a starter and he was clearly in over his head. While the PAC12 isn't exactly great, UW still had to beat a pretty good Oregon team twice.

One last factor for me... Kalen DeBoer vs. Steve Sarkisian. Big edge to UW.

Washington (+4) 6 units
Washington (ML) 2 to win 3
Under (62) 2 units.

Interesting coaching perspective, I would have never given DeBoer an edge but honestly haven followed him that closely but I think Sark is terrific strategist imo should be a great game but do think Texas attacks with the run...GL Smitty...

 

[Smitty]

I think Sark is terrific strategist

we'll just have to agree to disagree. i mean, maybe he's off the sauce now, and that can only help.

but do think Texas attacks with the run

yeah, i think it would have been a different game with Brooks healthy. there's no doubt UW is vulnerable defensively.

 

[Smitty]

Well, that was the worst I've seen the Alabama offensive line play in a long, long time. They were flat-out missing assignments. And, of course, the back-to-back bad snaps to kill their momentum the first drive of the 2nd half.

And Milroe was running like a pussy early in the game. Kinda funny that somebody obviously gave him a talking-to, because after that, he wasn't sliding.

Michigan sure didn't play well either. I guess this kind of game was to be expected in a year with no great teams. Whoever ends up winning it will be one of the worst champs in a while.

FWIW, going into the weekend, Michigan was -6.5 over Washington and -3 over Texas.

 

[ManofWar]

Sold me, I'm betting over 15.5 -130

Thanks for your input!