wasn't long ago that betting on a short home dog in a playoff game was automatic. but in a year when favs did so well (especially after a slow start in september)... who the hell knows?
one detail that nobody seems to be talking about... not only is LA playing on a short week, but this is also their 3rd straight road game. the first of which was at NE. these guys have done some traveling the last few weeks.
while houston has been an awful home fav the last few years, they were 2-1 this year as a home dog.
it's still really, really hard to trust houston here.
i think the best bet on the game is the under, even though we've lost a lot of value over the week, as it opened around 44.5.
both teams are in the top 5 defensively against the pass and both are in the top 6 for sacks. meanwhile, stroud took the 2nd-most sacks in the league (52) and herbert took the 7th-most (41).
LA Is 27th in the league, allowing 4.7 yards/rush BUT they allowed the fewest rushing TDs (7) this year.
Joe Mixon had a meh year, averaging 4.1/carry, but i gotta believe houston is gonna hand him the ball a lot today. i don't see any props on Pierce, which i'm guessing means he's not a part of their game plan. that's a little surprising, after he ran for 192 last week and is averaging 7.3 yards/carry on the season.
1Q Under (7.5) 3.9 to win 3
Stroud INT 2.6 to win 2
Mixon rush att over (17.5) 2.5 to win 2
Tuipulotu Over (.25) sacks 2 to win 2.9
one detail that nobody seems to be talking about... not only is LA playing on a short week, but this is also their 3rd straight road game. the first of which was at NE. these guys have done some traveling the last few weeks.
while houston has been an awful home fav the last few years, they were 2-1 this year as a home dog.
it's still really, really hard to trust houston here.
i think the best bet on the game is the under, even though we've lost a lot of value over the week, as it opened around 44.5.
both teams are in the top 5 defensively against the pass and both are in the top 6 for sacks. meanwhile, stroud took the 2nd-most sacks in the league (52) and herbert took the 7th-most (41).
LA Is 27th in the league, allowing 4.7 yards/rush BUT they allowed the fewest rushing TDs (7) this year.
Joe Mixon had a meh year, averaging 4.1/carry, but i gotta believe houston is gonna hand him the ball a lot today. i don't see any props on Pierce, which i'm guessing means he's not a part of their game plan. that's a little surprising, after he ran for 192 last week and is averaging 7.3 yards/carry on the season.
1Q Under (7.5) 3.9 to win 3
Stroud INT 2.6 to win 2
Mixon rush att over (17.5) 2.5 to win 2
Tuipulotu Over (.25) sacks 2 to win 2.9
