1/3 Bowls

Smitty

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already my last day of non-playoff bowls, since i can't bet on the bahamas bowl. bowl season flies by so fast.

First Responders Bowl

the battle between the two best teams in texas!! what? am i forgetting someone?

once all the opt-outs settled, texas st went from roughly -9.5 to -13.5, and the total dropped 5 points.

let's try to sort out who's not playing.

texas st.... like they are definitely missing starting RB Mahdi (although the 2 guys behind him both had a higher yards/carry) and starting RT Harkey, who is going to Oregon. CB Eaton, who tied for the team lead in PD with 5, has committed to michigan st, and is not listed on the roster*.

*That's right, i actually found the updated Texas St roster. Last couple games of the year, and i found the roster for a bowl team!!! I can actually confirm some of these guys aren't playing!

ok, now let's temper that excitement (whaddya mean, this excites nobody but me???) with this bombshell from actionnetwork.com...

1735874201358.png

I have no idea what to do with this. i can't find any other source that indicates mccloud may not play the whole game, much less "won't play significant snaps." this is completely out of nowhere. he played the entire game in their season finale, so it doesn't appear to be injury-related. HAS ANYONE HEARD ANYTHING ABOUT THIS????

alright, back to the good news... i even found the north texas depth chart!! right on twitter!! i'll even include a little of the pronunciation guide, for your viewing enjoyment.

GfL4WLuWgAAQOJ5


ok, we knew qb Morris was gone. this confirms leading WR sheffield is out. as are their starting TE and starting C. on the bright side, their starting defense appears to be intact. i wonder why nobody from the defense is transferring... oh, maybe because they give up 6.2 yards/play (109th in the country). that # grows to 6.8 away from home (5.4 at home).

freshman qb mestemaker gets the start. this kid is AWESOME!! he completed 80% of his passes and averaged 13.8 yards/att!! holy crap!! fine, fine, he's thrown 5 passes. he got some mop-up duty in a blowout loss to texas tech. he was 2-of-3 and completed a 49-yarder. he also ran 4 times for 26 yards, so he's got some mobility.
alright, i've spent enough time on this game. i'll go out on a limb and say both rosters are filled with kids from texas. and the game is in texas. so this game probably matters to both teams.

the AAC is 6-1 (i'm pretty sure) in bowl games so far, and this is their last one. i think i'll ride with that and play the dog. especially if mccloud isn't playing much for texas st. man, i can't wait to see how that plays out.

UNT (+13.5) 2X
UNT (ML) 1 to win 4
1H under (32.5) 3X

it'll be mid-to-late afternoon tomorrow before i get a chance to work on the mayo bowl. first glance... oh great, another exciting matchup between 2 mediocre power-4 teams. yay.
 

oxnardca1

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I'm Surprised Boxand1, hasn't commented on this game.

He has season tickets for Texas State and Is a North Texas alumni.

Great write up Smitty..... 👍🏽
 
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Slumdog

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Holy crap smitty. You outdid yourself on this one. And that’s hard to do. Thxxxx. I’m leaning this way now.
 

Smitty

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Holy crap smitty. You outdid yourself on this one. And that’s hard to do. Thxxxx. I’m leaning this way now.
thanks! was it the pronunciation guide that put it over the top?

and just remember... these are small-ish bets. i don't love this game by any stretch. and really not loving the 1H under as much, since the total for the game has jumped back up to 65. guess i should have waited until this morning. never fails. put bets in early, the line moves the wrong way. wait until closer to game time, and the line moves the wrong way. really sucks, because i kinda liked the over for the game. oh well.

alrighty, i'll be back later this afternoon.
 

Slumdog

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😂 yes. The guide was definitely added value. Lol

Sweet. Thx. Yea. First game we go light. We launch a cruise missile. I’m hoping for an atom bomb or H Bomb on the night game. Waiting on you and the board. Cd is on minny.

Have a nice day.
 
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rocky mountain

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😂 yes. The guide was definitely added value. Lol

Sweet. Thx. Yea. First game we go light. We launch a cruise missile. I’m hoping for an atom bomb or H Bomb on the night game. Waiting on you and the board. Cd is on minny.

Have a nice day.
I found the fact they had to do a pronunciation guide humorous
 
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Smitty

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Mayo Bowl

geez, what a game to end on. minnesota is missing both starting offensive tackles and maybe one other starter on the o-line. v tech is missing... maybe everybody? they haven't released a depth chart, so hard to know exactly who is playing. sounds like they are expected to start freshman pop watson at qb. watson started against duke & virginia, so we have something to work with. he completed 26 of 46 for 400 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT. the stat that jumped off the page to me... he took 10 sacks. including 8 against duke.

minnesota was very good away from home. 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS.

both defenses are in the top 35 in yards/play allowed.

it's going to be windy. expected around 16 mph with gusts near 30 mph.

PJ Fleck is 5-0 SU in bowls at Minnesota.

absolutely cannot love this game. wagering more than i should.

minnesota (-10) 4X. i seriously can't believe i'm betting minnesota laying double digits.
under (43.5) 6.9 to win 6
parlay minnesota -6.5 & under 49.5 4 to win 4.4

Bahamas Bowl

since i can't bet it, i'm not putting any time into it. but gun to my head... lay the 3 with UB.
 

Smitty

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Mayo Bowl

geez, what a game to end on. minnesota is missing both starting offensive tackles and maybe one other starter on the o-line. v tech is missing... maybe everybody? they haven't released a depth chart, so hard to know exactly who is playing. sounds like they are expected to start freshman pop watson at qb. watson started against duke & virginia, so we have something to work with. he completed 26 of 46 for 400 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT. the stat that jumped off the page to me... he took 10 sacks. including 8 against duke.

minnesota was very good away from home. 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS.

both defenses are in the top 35 in yards/play allowed.

it's going to be windy. expected around 16 mph with gusts near 30 mph.

PJ Fleck is 5-0 SU in bowls at Minnesota.

absolutely cannot love this game. wagering more than i should.

minnesota (-10) 4X. i seriously can't believe i'm betting minnesota laying double digits.
under (43.5) 6.9 to win 6
parlay minnesota -6.5 & under 49.5 4 to win 4.4

Bahamas Bowl

since i can't bet it, i'm not putting any time into it. but gun to my head... lay the 3 with UB.
HOLD UP ON THAT UNDER BET!!

i saw something wrong. i should probably stay off the total now, but with that wind, i can't help myself...

Under (43.5) 2.1 to win 2
 

rocky mountain

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HOLD UP ON THAT UNDER BET!!

i saw something wrong. i should probably stay off the total now, but with that wind, i can't help myself...

Under (43.5) 2.1 to win 2
So reduced units on under Bd still playing parlay minnesota -6.5 & under 49.5 4 to win 4.4?
 

Smitty

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also saw the line dropped to 9.5 (-115) right after i posted. i'd say grab that # if you can.
 

rocky mountain

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also saw the line dropped to 9.5 (-115) right after i posted. i'd say grab that # if you can.
I'm falling asleep on couch watching 3 body problem. I'm a little burnt out with football even though I'm on a good win streak. Will mess around this weekend, good luck Smitty!
 

rocky mountain

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already my last day of non-playoff bowls, since i can't bet on the bahamas bowl. bowl season flies by so fast.

First Responders Bowl

the battle between the two best teams in texas!! what? am i forgetting someone?

once all the opt-outs settled, texas st went from roughly -9.5 to -13.5, and the total dropped 5 points.

let's try to sort out who's not playing.

texas st.... like they are definitely missing starting RB Mahdi (although the 2 guys behind him both had a higher yards/carry) and starting RT Harkey, who is going to Oregon. CB Eaton, who tied for the team lead in PD with 5, has committed to michigan st, and is not listed on the roster*.

*That's right, i actually found the updated Texas St roster. Last couple games of the year, and i found the roster for a bowl team!!! I can actually confirm some of these guys aren't playing!

ok, now let's temper that excitement (whaddya mean, this excites nobody but me???) with this bombshell from actionnetwork.com...

View attachment 6968965

I have no idea what to do with this. i can't find any other source that indicates mccloud may not play the whole game, much less "won't play significant snaps." this is completely out of nowhere. he played the entire game in their season finale, so it doesn't appear to be injury-related. HAS ANYONE HEARD ANYTHING ABOUT THIS????

alright, back to the good news... i even found the north texas depth chart!! right on twitter!! i'll even include a little of the pronunciation guide, for your viewing enjoyment.

GfL4WLuWgAAQOJ5


ok, we knew qb Morris was gone. this confirms leading WR sheffield is out. as are their starting TE and starting C. on the bright side, their starting defense appears to be intact. i wonder why nobody from the defense is transferring... oh, maybe because they give up 6.2 yards/play (109th in the country). that # grows to 6.8 away from home (5.4 at home).

freshman qb mestemaker gets the start. this kid is AWESOME!! he completed 80% of his passes and averaged 13.8 yards/att!! holy crap!! fine, fine, he's thrown 5 passes. he got some mop-up duty in a blowout loss to texas tech. he was 2-of-3 and completed a 49-yarder. he also ran 4 times for 26 yards, so he's got some mobility.
alright, i've spent enough time on this game. i'll go out on a limb and say both rosters are filled with kids from texas. and the game is in texas. so this game probably matters to both teams.

the AAC is 6-1 (i'm pretty sure) in bowl games so far, and this is their last one. i think i'll ride with that and play the dog. especially if mccloud isn't playing much for texas st. man, i can't wait to see how that plays out.

UNT (+13.5) 2X
UNT (ML) 1 to win 4
1H under (32.5) 3X

it'll be mid-to-late afternoon tomorrow before i get a chance to work on the mayo bowl. first glance... oh great, another exciting matchup between 2 mediocre power-4 teams. yay.
Nice work!
 
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Smitty

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thanks, guys. woulda been nice to get that ML home, but can't win 'em all.

so far, i'm glad i bailed out of the big play on the under in this game.
 

Smitty

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guess i should have kept that under as a bigger play.

wraps up another fun bowl season. hopefully it was enough to keep rocky profitable for the football season.
 

rocky mountain

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guess i should have kept that under as a bigger play.

wraps up another fun bowl season. hopefully it was enough to keep rocky profitable for the football season.
Ha! You were fantastic as usual. I was too tired yesterday for some reason, but watched a little and ya nailed it!!!
 
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