12/23 Bowls

[Smitty]

Birmingham

Both teams are without their head coaches. Near as I can tell, Duke has at least 9 players with over 300 snaps sitting out. Troy is without LB McDonald, who is their leading tackler.

Duke will be without Riley Leonard. Freshman Grayson Loftis is expected to start. Does this look like a guy who makes good decisions?

In 4 starts, Loftis completed 53% of his passes for 8 TDs & 3 INTs, averaging 6.1 yards/att. But those were against Wake, UNC, UVA, and PItt. None of which were in the top 60 for defensive yards allowed per attempt. Troy is 23rd, allowing 6.5 yards/att. Duke will rely on the ground game led by Jaquez Moore, who dropped out of the transfer portal. He had a very solid year, averaging 5.9 yards/rush. But Troy's defense is also excellent against the run, giving up 3.1 yards/rush, which is 8th in the country.

Other side of the ball, Gunnar Watson, a 12-year starter, had his best season. He completed 61% of his passes for 27 TDs and only 5 INTs, averaging 8.3 yards/att. Troy can also run the ball with Kimani Vidal, who had over 1,500 yards, averaging 5.7 yards/carry, topped off with his 233 yards and 5 TDs in the Sun Belt Championship game. Duke is ok against the run, giving up 3.93 yards/carry (51st) and very good against the pass, allowing 6.59 yards/att (26th). But Duke will be missing their top 2 sack guys, along with at least 2 other defensive starters. Keep an eye on Troy sophomore WR Chris Lewis. He only had 32 catches, but 10 were for TDs. In fact, he had a TD in every game he played except 2.

One concern... Troy lost 12 fumbles this year. Only 3 teams lost more. Luckily for them, Duke only recovered 5. But Troy may put the ball on the ground a few times.

I like Troy to get off to a fast start while their defense takes control of the game.

Troy (-7) 2 units
Troy 1H (-3.5) 2.4 to win 2
Duke TT under (17.5) 4 units
Duke 1H TT under (7.5) 2.3 to win 2

 

[Barber]

Roflmao. Oh my god. I got a hug belly laugh. Trust me, I needed that too. Good luck. Merry Christmas.

 

[Smitty]

Roflmao. Oh my god. I got a hug belly laugh. Trust me, I needed that too. Good luck. Merry Christmas.

Glad I could help! Merry Christmas.

 

[Slumdog]

What a call on usf !! Thx. I used it in my parlay 👍🍻

 

[Smitty]

Camellia

Ark St will be without their 2nd-leading tackler, LB Mackey, and a little DL depth. That's about it. NI will be without their starting center and a DE who tied for 2nd on the team with 3.5 sacks. Their leading receiver, Rudolph, who was in the portal, is out of the portal and playing. He had 24 more receptions than anyone else on the team. And they lost a couple starting WRs during the season, so they don't have much after him. He also returns kicks.

Ark St's offense is run, run, big pass. The ground game is led by true freshman Raynor, who took over in mid-September. He completed 59% of his passes with 15 TDs and 6 INTs. Although if you take out the UMass game, he had 9 TDs and 6 INTs. However, he did average 9.0 yards/att. When he connects, it's usually a big play. Their top 3 receivers all average over 17 yards/catch. However, NI only allows 10.73 yards/completion, which is 21st in the country. This is actually an interesting match-up... an offense that relies on big pass plays against a defense that doesn't give them up. NI is ok against the run, giving up 4.2 yards/att.

Northern Ill also needs to run the ball. In part, because their qb is Rocky Lombardi. Yup, the kid from Michigan St. He's still quite mediocre. He completed 57% of his passes with 10 TDs and 5 INTs, and averaged 7.0 yards/att. Antario Brown is their RB1, and he had a very good year, averaging 6.2 yards/carry. Arkansas St struggles to stop the run, allowing 4.76 yards/carry (106th in the country), and the loss of Mackey won't help. NI has also gotten Rudolph some carries. In the last 3 games, he has 7 carries for 115 yards. Arkansas St is also really bad against the pass, allowing 7.83 yards/att (102nd), but NI likely won't be able to exploit that much.

Kinda interesting, and a definite indication that I spend way too much time digging into these games... I mentioned that NIU is without their starting center. So I was curious about the backup. Logan Zschernitz was their starting RG the last 3 years. He started every game until getting hurt in the 10th game last year. Then he didn't play this year until the last 3 games, and he wasn't starting. I can't find out if he was playing RG or C. Anyway, suddenly he's their starting C on Saturday. Normally, I put a lot of importance on the C. I'll almost always bet against a new starting C in a road game, especially where there's going to be a loud crowd. But I don't think there will be too much crowd noise at the Camellia Bowl, so I may have just wasted 15 minutes. Anyone still reading?

So I think the big question mark in this game... can Arkansas St hit some big passes? I really don't know. About the only aspect of this game that I have any confidence in... NIU should be able to run the ball. And that's often the key to winning.

NIU (ML) 2 to win 2.7

I keep going back and forth on the total. For now, I'm doing the smart thing and staying off it. First time for everything.

 

[Smitty]

Armed Forces

JMU has at least 9 starters in the portal, but all are expected to play tomorrow, despite most of the coaching staff leaving. That's a good sign, and somewhat expected, as the Dukes are in their first bowl game. AF is only missing RB Eldridge, who is 3rd on the team in rushing yards. His backup, Carson, has actually put up slightly better numbers. It also looks like AF is getting a couple injured offensive starters back.

Due to all the defections in the coaching staff, JMU hired 5 temporary coaches for this game. I've never heard of that before. That may even work to their advantage, as most of the temp coaches have experience with the triple option. I even have a fun story re: one of the temp coaches, but that will be the next post.

AF started 8-0, but then everything fell apart against Army. AF turned the ball over 6 times and was dominated by a weak Army team. They lost their last 4 games, and end up right back in the same bowl game they won last year. Hard to believe they'll be all that excited for this game.

Rain is expected most of the day tomorrow and, more importantly, wind gusts around 20 mph. No impact to the team that doesn't throw the ball, but it could impact JMU's offense.

JMJ's run defense has been absolutely dominant in their 2 years at the FBS level. They allowed 2.09 yards/rush this year, tops in the country. As long as they are adequately prepared for the option, they may shut down this AF offense.

On the other side, JMU gets roughly 2/3 of their yards through the air. McCloud had a solid year, completing 69% of his passes for 32 TDs and 9 INTs, averaging 9.0 yds/att. And they're going to need to throw the ball, because both RBs only average 4.5 yds/carry and AF's run defense is stout, allowing just 3.13 yds/carry. Overall, they've been excellent against the pass, too, allowing just 6.85 yds/att. However, they were very generous the last 2 games, giving up 567 yards on 46 attempts (12.3 yds/att). So certainly some question as to how well they will defend the pass tomorrow. They may get an assist from the wind.

Edge in the kicking game to JMU. Wise made 15 of 16 under 40 yards, but he did only make one of two from over 40. Dapore from AF was actually better from long range, making 8 of 9 from 40+, but he was only 6 of 9 under 40.

In general, I like betting against option teams in bowl games. If a motivated team has time to prepare, the option can be defended. In this case, we have a very motivated team that is already excellent against the run. The fact that all the players in the portal wanted to stick around, even after a lot of the coaches left, speaks volumes. If AF is able to slow down the JMU passing game, this could be a close one. But that extra motivation should be enough for JMU.

JMU (-1.5) 8 units
Under (40.5) 8 units

 

[Smitty]

Ok, here's my story... and I'm channeling my inner Box here... my senior year of HS, we're playing against Bethlehem. Bethlehem had a star lineman who had committed to Syracuse, John Reagan. Who happens to be one of the temp coaches hired by JMU for this game. Anyway, our area doesn't produce a hell of a lot of D1 talent, so this was a big deal. Reagan, who went on to be a 3-year starter at Center for Syracuse, played both ways, as most of us did. When he was on defense, he was going to be primarily lined up against our Left Guard, a kid by the name of John Pardo. Reagan was roughly 230 lbs. Pardo was... 140 (sopping wet). Yes, we were seriously short players the entire year, and our Left Guard was 140 lbs. Sure we tried to help out with some double teams when possible, but it was often John against John. Luckily for our John, he was one scrappy son of a bitch. He didn't give a fuck that he was outweighed by nearly 100 lbs. He fought Reagan to a standstill most of the game. Watching the film on Monday was goddamn inspirational, watching this wiry little dude battle this beast who was going to Syracuse.

Ok, that's my story. When I saw John Reagan was one of the coaches JMU just hired, I thought to myself "it's probably not the same guy." But, sure as shit, he went into coaching and it's him.

Oh, quick personal note from that game.... as WRs, we were trained that if you run your route and you look back and the QB is scrambling, you go deep, so defenders had to choose between staying with you and going after the QB. Basic stuff. So kinda late in the game, I ran a post and, sure enough, our QB is scrambling. My defender left me, and I wandered further downfield. Was positive our QB locked eyes with me and he launched in my direction. Would have been an easy TD, as there was nobody between me and the goal line. But the pass fell about 10 yards short near another one of my teammates. After the game, I asked the QB if he had, in fact, seen me. Yup, he tried but he just didn't have the arm to reach me. Smitty did not score a TD all year.

We now continue with our regularly scheduled handicapping.

 

[Smitty]

Potato!!

Time for some blue turf!! Don't adjust your set!! HAHAHAHAHA so hilarious.

Ga St's offense was hit hard by the portal. Carroll, who had 274 carries, is gone. Top WR Lewis, who had 24 more catches than anyone else on the team, is gone. Their backup RB and starting RT are gone. Utah St is missing a starting Safety, and that's about it.

Utah St is, however, still missing their top 2 QBs. Which means Levi Williams will get the start. He started the season finale and was decent, completing 16 of 27 for 198, 2 TDs and 1 INT. Oh, and he also ran for 153 yards on 25 carries. For a 3rd stringer, he has some bowl experience. Last year, he got a couple snaps in garbage time. Way back in 2019, he was 11 of 26 for 234 with 3 TDs and 1 INT in the Arizona Bowl against... checks notes... Georgia St. And in 2021, he started for Wyoming in... checks notes... the Potato Bowl, and completed 9 of 11 for 127, 1 TD, and 0 INTs. OH, and he ran for 200 yards on 16 carries. So he is 2-0 in bowl games as a starter, and he's already won the Potato Bowl and he's already beaten Ga St in a bowl game. You can't ask for a better 3rd string QB. Georgia St was ok against the run, allowing 4.24 yds/att, which is middle-of-the-pack. They are going to have their hands full with Williams and RBs Booth (6.3 yards/att) and Faison (6.6). If and when Williams has to pass, he's throwing against one of the worst pass defenses in the country. Ga St allowed 8.51 yards/att. Only 8 teams were worse.

Georgia St relies on Granger, their dual-threat QB. While his completion percentage (67%) was way up this year, his TD/INT ratio (17/7) and yds/att (7.0) were the worst since he became the starter. With Carroll and Adams gone, they don't have a RB with more than 6 carries this year. The Aggies were awful against the run, giving up 4.79 yds/carry (108th in the country), so we'll see if some of the guys that didn't play this year are ready to step up. Utah St was excellent against the pass, allowing 6.45 yds/att (20th).

Utah St has had a pretty straight-forward season. They beat the teams they were supposed to beat and lost to every better team they played.

In what's expected to be a close game, you gotta look at the kickers. In this game, only one kicker matters. Utah St kicker Elliott Nimrod (giggle) was ok this year, making 11 of 13 with a long of 46. But he hasn't missed a kick since 10/7. As long as the announcers don't mention that, he should be fine. If they do mention is, they are nimrods.

After starting the season 6-1, Georgia St lost their last 5 games, including the last-second loss to ODU to wrap up the season. As their punishment, they are in Boise. They get a little break, as the weather could be worse. They're expecting upper 30's, with enough wind to make it feel like the lower 30s. Still, the Aggies are a lot more accustomed to this weather and likely more motivated.

Utah St (-1.5) 6 units
Utah St TT over (30.5) 4.6 to win 4

 

[Smitty]

68 Ventures

Can I just pass on this one? Please, dear god, let me get through this one quick.

Portal.... USA is without absolute stud WR Lacy. He had 91 catches for 1,316 yards. EMU is without QB Smith, a starting Guard, and 2 DL starters.

EMU's offense is anemic, even with Smith. They only scored 30 twice... once in the season opener against Howard (the Duck?) and in double OT against Akron. And now there is zero threat of a passing game with Udengwu. He was 13 of 28 this year, with 0 TDs and 2 INTs, averaging 3.6 yards/att. USA was somewhat vulnerable against the pass, giving up 7.78 yards/att. Doesn't look like EMU will be able to exploit that. USA was, however, very good against the run. They allowed 3.27 yards/rush (18th in the country). EMU is going to have to run the ball, and it doesn't look like they're going to be able to.

USA qb Bradley has been dealing with a knee injury, but will likely start. Senior Trotter and Freshman Lopez may also see some time. EMU has been ok against the pass, allowing 7.01 yards/att, but I'm guessing that number is flattered by some woeful MAC offenses. RB1 Webb is out with an injury. He averaged 5.4 yds/carry. There is a drop-off to Bullock and McReynolds, who both average 4.9. EMU is vulnerable to the run, allowing 4.48 yards/carry, 87th in the country.

Ok, that's all the time I'm spending on this crapfest. USA should roll, but I have a hard time laying 17 in a bowl game (or any game, for that matter). So I'm just playing some TTs.

EMU TT under (13.5) 5 to win 4
EMU 1H TT under (6.5) 2 to win 2.1

 

[ejthree]

Ok, here's my story... and I'm channeling my inner Box here... my senior year of HS, we're playing against Bethlehem. Bethlehem had a star lineman who had committed to Syracuse, John Reagan. Who happens to be one of the temp coaches hired by JMU for this game. Anyway, our area doesn't produce a hell of a lot of D1 talent, so this was a big deal. Reagan, who went on to be a 3-year starter at Center for Syracuse, played both ways, as most of us did. When he was on defense, he was going to be primarily lined up against our Left Guard, a kid by the name of John Pardo. Reagan was roughly 230 lbs. Pardo was... 140 (sopping wet). Yes, we were seriously short players the entire year, and our Left Guard was 140 lbs. Sure we tried to help out with some double teams when possible, but it was often John against John. Luckily for our John, he was one scrappy son of a bitch. He didn't give a fuck that he was outweighed by nearly 100 lbs. He fought Reagan to a standstill most of the game. Watching the film on Monday was goddamn inspirational, watching this wiry little dude battle this beast who was going to Syracuse.

Ok, that's my story. When I saw John Reagan was one of the coaches JMU just hired, I thought to myself "it's probably not the same guy." But, sure as shit, he went into coaching and it's him.

Oh, quick personal note from that game.... as WRs, we were trained that if you run your route and you look back and the QB is scrambling, you go deep, so defenders had to choose between staying with you and going after the QB. Basic stuff. So kinda late in the game, I ran a post and, sure enough, our QB is scrambling. My defender left me, and I wandered further downfield. Was positive our QB locked eyes with me and he launched in my direction. Would have been an easy TD, as there was nobody between me and the goal line. But the pass fell about 10 yards short near another one of my teammates. After the game, I asked the QB if he had, in fact, seen me. Yup, he tried but he just didn't have the arm to reach me. Smitty did not score a TD all year.

We now continue with our regularly scheduled handicapping.

Nice story Smitty , short armed QB's have ruined many a receiver lol

 

[ejthree]

Potato!!

Time for some blue turf!! Don't adjust your set!! HAHAHAHAHA so hilarious.

Ga St's offense was hit hard by the portal. Carroll, who had 274 carries, is gone. Top WR Lewis, who had 24 more catches than anyone else on the team, is gone. Their backup RB and starting RT are gone. Utah St is missing a starting Safety, and that's about it.

Utah St is, however, still missing their top 2 QBs. Which means Levi Williams will get the start. He started the season finale and was decent, completing 16 of 27 for 198, 2 TDs and 1 INT. Oh, and he also ran for 153 yards on 25 carries. For a 3rd stringer, he has some bowl experience. Last year, he got a couple snaps in garbage time. Way back in 2019, he was 11 of 26 for 234 with 3 TDs and 1 INT in the Arizona Bowl against... checks notes... Georgia St. And in 2021, he started for Wyoming in... checks notes... the Potato Bowl, and completed 9 of 11 for 127, 1 TD, and 0 INTs. OH, and he ran for 200 yards on 16 carries. So he is 2-0 in bowl games as a starter, and he's already won the Potato Bowl and he's already beaten Ga St in a bowl game. You can't ask for a better 3rd string QB. Georgia St was ok against the run, allowing 4.24 yds/att, which is middle-of-the-pack. They are going to have their hands full with Williams and RBs Booth (6.3 yards/att) and Faison (6.6). If and when Williams has to pass, he's throwing against one of the worst pass defenses in the country. Ga St allowed 8.51 yards/att. Only 8 teams were worse.

Georgia St relies on Granger, their dual-threat QB. While his completion percentage (67%) was way up this year, his TD/INT ratio (17/7) and yds/att (7.0) were the worst since he became the starter. With Carroll and Adams gone, they don't have a RB with more than 6 carries this year. The Aggies were awful against the run, giving up 4.79 yds/carry (108th in the country), so we'll see if some of the guys that didn't play this year are ready to step up. Utah St was excellent against the pass, allowing 6.45 yds/att (20th).

Utah St has had a pretty straight-forward season. They beat the teams they were supposed to beat and lost to every better team they played.

In what's expected to be a close game, you gotta look at the kickers. In this game, only one kicker matters. Utah St kicker Elliott Nimrod (giggle) was ok this year, making 11 of 13 with a long of 46. But he hasn't missed a kick since 10/7. As long as the announcers don't mention that, he should be fine. If they do mention is, they are nimrods.

After starting the season 6-1, Georgia St lost their last 5 games, including the last-second loss to ODU to wrap up the season. As their punishment, they are in Boise. They get a little break, as the weather could be worse. They're expecting upper 30's, with enough wind to make it feel like the lower 30s. Still, the Aggies are a lot more accustomed to this weather and likely more motivated.

Utah St (-1.5) 6 units
Utah St TT over (30.5) 4.6 to win 4

This was my first clink for the bowls, love it...Nice write-up as always.

 

[Smitty]

Nice story Smitty , short armed QB's have ruined many a receiver lol

yeah, it's not like i'm still a little bitter.

 

[Smitty]

Las Vegas

Sorry, I'm not digging into the numbers for this one. This game is all about motivation. Utah had a hugely disappointing year, due in no small part to a ton of injuries. NW went through all that shit before the season and, thanks to a very poor Big10, greatly exceeded expectations.

To top it off, the game is in Las Vegas. I don't know if anyone on this website has ever been there, but there are a few distractions. What makes it worse for Utah... they played in the last two PAC12 championship games... in Las Vegas. So they've been here the last two years, but they were business trips. Now they return to the same city, no doubt reminded that, this time, they are not playing a game that matters. So... it's a vacation! This time, they can enjoy Vegas.

With everything NW went through prior to the season, they are going to be very excited for the opportunity to play in this game. As bad as they are, and they are badly outclassed, I think they will somehow win this game.

Northwestern (ML) 6 to win 12
Over (41.5) 2 units (this is a pure hunch. i have no idea how these teams are going to score 6 TDs.)

 

[OtroPex]

Thanks for the writeups Smitty! Love the Box-like story

 

[Smitty]

Thanks for the writeups Smitty! Love the Box-like story

Hawai'i

Ok, no Grayson McCall (or Jarrett Guest, who was really good in his brief playing time) and no Jared Brown (one of only 2 CCU receivers with more than 21 catches) for Coastal. Their only missing starter on defense is LB Killen, who tied for 2nd on the team with 65 tackles. SJ St will be missing their starting LT and TE, both of whom are very good.

After back-to-back excellent years (11-2 & 9-4), the Chants fell back into mediocrity this year under first year head coach Tim Beck. Two quick notes on Beck... 1) as a lot of us know, HCs in their first year with the team have a very poor bowl record and 2) Beck was photographed earlier this week with members of the dance squad... you know, as a public service, I've included the photo below. This was posted to the team's social media. Anyway, this created quite a distraction. Probably not the smartest photo a coach has taken. Anyway, it was enough of a distraction that Beck asked for the pic to be taken down.

San Jose St is accustomed to making the trip to Hawaii, last visiting 10/28.

SJ St HC Brennan is 0-2 in bowl games.

Ethan Vasko gets the start at QB for CCU. He was ok, completing 65% with 4 TDs and 1 INT, averaging 6.5 yards/att. He's a big threat with his legs. Against ODU, he ran for 170 yards on 21 carries. Luckily for SJ St, he's their only run threat, because SJ St struggled against the run this year, giving up 4.65 yds/carry. Despite having only 46 carries, Vasko is the 2nd-leading rusher on CCU. Their RB, Bennett, only averaged 4.4 yds/carry. CCU does most of their damage through the air, but that plays right into the strength of the SJ St defense. They only gave up 6.69 yards/att, 30th in the country. As long as the Spartans can contain Vasko's running, CCU won't move the ball much.

Other side of the ball, Cordeiro has had an excellent year, completing 62% for 19 TDs and only 4 INTs, averaging 7.7 yds/att. The former Hawai'i starter, he's also a threat with his legs, but he's been able to cut down on his running this year because SJ St has an excellent ground game with All-Mountain West first teamer Kairee Robinson who averaged 7.1 yards/carry. His backup, Conley, is no slouch either, averaging 6.4. As a team, SJ St averages 5.53 yds/carry, 7th in the country. CCU gives up 4.63 yards/carry (97th).

San Jose St started the season 1-5. The won their last 6 and should have a chip on their shoulder over getting left out of the MW Championship Game. Robinson and the Spartans should have a big game against a weak run defense.

SJ St (-8) 6 units
CCU TT under (19.5) 4 units

 

[LuvThemDogs]

Hawai'i

Ok, no Grayson McCall (or Jarrett Guest, who was really good in his brief playing time) and no Jared Brown (one of only 2 CCU receivers with more than 21 catches) for Coastal. Their only missing starter on defense is LB Killen, who tied for 2nd on the team with 65 tackles. SJ St will be missing their starting LT and TE, both of whom are very good.

After back-to-back excellent years (11-2 & 9-4), the Chants fell back into mediocrity this year under first year head coach Tim Beck. Two quick notes on Beck... 1) as a lot of us know, HCs in their first year with the team have a very poor bowl record and 2) Beck was photographed earlier this week with members of the dance squad... you know, as a public service, I've included the photo below. This was posted to the team's social media. Anyway, this created quite a distraction. Probably not the smartest photo a coach has taken. Anyway, it was enough of a distraction that Beck asked for the pic to be taken down.

San Jose St is accustomed to making the trip to Hawaii, last visiting 10/28.

SJ St HC Brennan is 0-2 in bowl games.

Ethan Vasko gets the start at QB for CCU. He was ok, completing 65% with 4 TDs and 1 INT, averaging 6.5 yards/att. He's a big threat with his legs. Against ODU, he ran for 170 yards on 21 carries. Luckily for SJ St, he's their only run threat, because SJ St struggled against the run this year, giving up 4.65 yds/carry. Despite having only 46 carries, Vasko is the 2nd-leading rusher on CCU. Their RB, Bennett, only averaged 4.4 yds/carry. CCU does most of their damage through the air, but that plays right into the strength of the SJ St defense. They only gave up 6.69 yards/att, 30th in the country. As long as the Spartans can contain Vasko's running, CCU won't move the ball much.

Other side of the ball, Cordeiro has had an excellent year, completing 62% for 19 TDs and only 4 INTs, averaging 7.7 yds/att. The former Hawai'i starter, he's also a threat with his legs, but he's been able to cut down on his running this year because SJ St has an excellent ground game with All-Mountain West first teamer Kairee Robinson who averaged 7.1 yards/carry. His backup, Conley, is no slouch either, averaging 6.4. As a team, SJ St averages 5.53 yds/carry, 7th in the country. CCU gives up 4.63 yards/carry (97th).

San Jose St started the season 1-5. The won their last 6 and should have a chip on their shoulder over getting left out of the MW Championship Game. Robinson and the Spartans should have a big game against a weak run defense.

SJ St (-8) 6 units
CCU TT under (19.5) 4 units

I like it. Fresno St was 8-1 before they played San Jose St. You saw what Fresno did to NM St in their bowl game. Fresno was pretty decent this year and would definitely beat Coastal by double digits. Well, San Jose St beat the hell out of Fresno St on both sides of the ball. I was very impressed by them, and I'm not a big fan of that team in general. That coupled with SJ St's QB being a Hawaii native and San Jose knowing what to do while on the island, gives the Spartans a big advantage. Good luck. I've got some big bet on the Spartans. Hopefully this isn't one of those, if it looks like a sure thing, it probably isn't....

LTD

 

[rocky mountain]

Ok, here's my story... and I'm channeling my inner Box here... my senior year of HS, we're playing against Bethlehem. Bethlehem had a star lineman who had committed to Syracuse, John Reagan. Who happens to be one of the temp coaches hired by JMU for this game. Anyway, our area doesn't produce a hell of a lot of D1 talent, so this was a big deal. Reagan, who went on to be a 3-year starter at Center for Syracuse, played both ways, as most of us did. When he was on defense, he was going to be primarily lined up against our Left Guard, a kid by the name of John Pardo. Reagan was roughly 230 lbs. Pardo was... 140 (sopping wet). Yes, we were seriously short players the entire year, and our Left Guard was 140 lbs. Sure we tried to help out with some double teams when possible, but it was often John against John. Luckily for our John, he was one scrappy son of a bitch. He didn't give a fuck that he was outweighed by nearly 100 lbs. He fought Reagan to a standstill most of the game. Watching the film on Monday was goddamn inspirational, watching this wiry little dude battle this beast who was going to Syracuse.

Ok, that's my story. When I saw John Reagan was one of the coaches JMU just hired, I thought to myself "it's probably not the same guy." But, sure as shit, he went into coaching and it's him.

Oh, quick personal note from that game.... as WRs, we were trained that if you run your route and you look back and the QB is scrambling, you go deep, so defenders had to choose between staying with you and going after the QB. Basic stuff. So kinda late in the game, I ran a post and, sure enough, our QB is scrambling. My defender left me, and I wandered further downfield. Was positive our QB locked eyes with me and he launched in my direction. Would have been an easy TD, as there was nobody between me and the goal line. But the pass fell about 10 yards short near another one of my teammates. After the game, I asked the QB if he had, in fact, seen me. Yup, he tried but he just didn't have the arm to reach me. Smitty did not score a TD all year.

We now continue with our regularly scheduled handicapping.

Was that QB The Garappolo?

 

[Smitty]

Was that QB The Garappolo?

ha. nope, he was the coach's son. in fairness, he was a lacrosse player, just playing football to help us out. our starting qb from previous years had quit football that year.

 

[Smitty]

Troy (-7) 2 units
Troy 1H (-3.5) 2.4 to win 2
Duke TT under (17.5) 4 units
Duke 1H TT under (7.5) 2.3 to win 2

nothing like hearing the team you bet on has had a stomach bug going through the team all week. that information may have been useful a couple days ago.

it'd be nice if they realized today is not Watson's day and just hammer Vidal. 7 carries in the first half is pathetic.

 

[LuvThemDogs]

Potato!!

Time for some blue turf!! Don't adjust your set!! HAHAHAHAHA so hilarious.

Ga St's offense was hit hard by the portal. Carroll, who had 274 carries, is gone. Top WR Lewis, who had 24 more catches than anyone else on the team, is gone. Their backup RB and starting RT are gone. Utah St is missing a starting Safety, and that's about it.

Utah St is, however, still missing their top 2 QBs. Which means Levi Williams will get the start. He started the season finale and was decent, completing 16 of 27 for 198, 2 TDs and 1 INT. Oh, and he also ran for 153 yards on 25 carries. For a 3rd stringer, he has some bowl experience. Last year, he got a couple snaps in garbage time. Way back in 2019, he was 11 of 26 for 234 with 3 TDs and 1 INT in the Arizona Bowl against... checks notes... Georgia St. And in 2021, he started for Wyoming in... checks notes... the Potato Bowl, and completed 9 of 11 for 127, 1 TD, and 0 INTs. OH, and he ran for 200 yards on 16 carries. So he is 2-0 in bowl games as a starter, and he's already won the Potato Bowl and he's already beaten Ga St in a bowl game. You can't ask for a better 3rd string QB. Georgia St was ok against the run, allowing 4.24 yds/att, which is middle-of-the-pack. They are going to have their hands full with Williams and RBs Booth (6.3 yards/att) and Faison (6.6). If and when Williams has to pass, he's throwing against one of the worst pass defenses in the country. Ga St allowed 8.51 yards/att. Only 8 teams were worse.

Georgia St relies on Granger, their dual-threat QB. While his completion percentage (67%) was way up this year, his TD/INT ratio (17/7) and yds/att (7.0) were the worst since he became the starter. With Carroll and Adams gone, they don't have a RB with more than 6 carries this year. The Aggies were awful against the run, giving up 4.79 yds/carry (108th in the country), so we'll see if some of the guys that didn't play this year are ready to step up. Utah St was excellent against the pass, allowing 6.45 yds/att (20th).

Utah St has had a pretty straight-forward season. They beat the teams they were supposed to beat and lost to every better team they played.

In what's expected to be a close game, you gotta look at the kickers. In this game, only one kicker matters. Utah St kicker Elliott Nimrod (giggle) was ok this year, making 11 of 13 with a long of 46. But he hasn't missed a kick since 10/7. As long as the announcers don't mention that, he should be fine. If they do mention is, they are nimrods.

After starting the season 6-1, Georgia St lost their last 5 games, including the last-second loss to ODU to wrap up the season. As their punishment, they are in Boise. They get a little break, as the weather could be worse. They're expecting upper 30's, with enough wind to make it feel like the lower 30s. Still, the Aggies are a lot more accustomed to this weather and likely more motivated.

Utah St (-1.5) 6 units
Utah St TT over (30.5) 4.6 to win 4

Can't believe how bad Utah St looks. They never arrived for the game. Now I'm nervous about my San Jose St bet. Utah St cost me a chunk.