12/26 Bowl Games

Smitty

Smitty

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running super late.

BG (ML) 2 to win 2.3. Obviously, the Falcons own the Gophers. I mean, ever see a gopher eat a falcon? Minnesota's QB today has thrown one pass all year. And it was completed. To the other team. Yup, he has a 100% INT rate. He'll need to improve on that. He's mostly played in the past as a wildcat qb. But, honestly, he can't be all that big of a dropoff at the position. They're going to run, run, run. BG struggles against the run. But we'll see just how much Minny cares about this game.
 
Smitty

Smitty

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Rice had almost zero ground game most of the year, but that may have been because they didn't give Dean Conners enough carries. The first 10 games, he had 73 carries for 448 yards. That's a very solid 6.1 yards/carry. But he didn't have more than 9 carries in a single game. The last 2 games, he had 33 carries for 259 yards (7.8/carry). Well, holy shit, look who realized they have a good running back. I'm hoping they're smart enough to give him 15-20 carries today, to take a little pressure off Padgett. Padgett has been solid in relief of JT Daniels, completing 64% of his passes with 7 TDs and 3 INTs, averaging 6.6 yards/att. Texas St is 61st in the country against the run, allowing 4.11 yds/carry. Their pass defense is one of the worst in the country, allowing 7.9 yds/att (103rd).

Sophomore TJ Finley, in his 4th year of college football, put up solid #s, completing 69% of his passes with 24 TDs and 8 INTs, averaging 8.5 yards/att. Rice was in the middle of the pack, allowing 7.45 yards/att. Rice's run defense put up similar #s to Texas St, allowing 4.17/yards/rush. RB Mahdi had a solid year for the Bobcats, averaging 6.1 yards/att. However, he only averaged 4.2 his last 3 games.

Texas St Head Coach Kinne is in his first year with the program. That's been a big bet-against in bowl games.

Rice (ML) 6 to win 8.7
Under (59) 8 units. This total is begging for over money. Rice's best chance to slow down the fast-paced Bobcat offense is to pound the rock with Conners. 1st-time bowl teams are 0-2 this year. Hopefully it's going to be 0-3.
 
Smitty

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Guaranteed Rate

Two high-scoring offenses and two porous defenses... clearly the final will be 19-17.

Jason Bean continues to be one of the best backup qbs in the country. He averaged 9.8 yards/att. One stat that may go unnoticed... he only took 5 sacks. He is also more than capable of taking off and running, averaging 6.3 yards/rush. UNLV allows 8.36 yards/att, 119th in the country. KU actually runs the ball 62% of their snaps, and why not when you have Devin Neal, who averages 6.6 yards/rush. UNLV's not very good against the run, either, allowing 4.32 yds/carry.

UNLV also is run-first, running on 58% of their plays. However, their ground game is not as explosive as KU's. Their leading RB, Davis, averages 5.5 yards/carry. They have 2 more guys with at least 95 carries, and they average 4.7 & 4.8. That said, KU has struggled against the run, allowing 4.48 yards/rush (86th in the country). QB Maiava had a very solid freshman season, completing 63% of his passes with 14 TDs and 8 INTs, averaging 8.8 yds/att. Kansas has been mediocre against the pass, allowing 7.28 yards/att (74th), but they don't give up a lot of yards per game, because everybody runs on them.

Barry Odom is in his first year as UNLV HC.

Wasn't this line up to 13.5 just a day or two ago? Dropping like a rock now. From 10 to 9 in just the last hour.

I've gone back and forth on this one. But as bad as KU's defense is, I have to believe UNLV will have a puncher's chance.

UNLV (+9) 2 units
UNLV (ML) 2 to win 5.2
Under (66.5) 2 units. I'm going to regret this one when it's 35-31 at halftime.
 
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Smitty

Smitty

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Smitty said:
First Responder

Rice had almost zero ground game most of the year, but that may have been because they didn't give Dean Conners enough carries. The first 10 games, he had 73 carries for 448 yards. That's a very solid 6.1 yards/carry. But he didn't have more than 9 carries in a single game. The last 2 games, he had 33 carries for 259 yards (7.8/carry). Well, holy shit, look who realized they have a good running back. I'm hoping they're smart enough to give him 15-20 carries today, to take a little pressure off Padgett.
Click to expand...
No idea why I thought maybe, just MAYBE a group of football coaches would be smart enough to hand the ball to Conners instead of having Padgett throw the ball almost every fucking down.

You can count on one hand the number of football coaches who have any fucking clue as to what they're doing.
 
ejthree

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Smitty said:
Thank you. I usually enjoy doing them. Just not when I'm getting my ass handed to me.

This shit needs to turn around soon.
Click to expand...
11 carries for 4 yds, that won't get it. Seems so far not a very good game plan.
 
Smitty

Smitty

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ejthree said:
11 carries for 4 yds, that won't get it. Seems so far not a very good game plan.
Click to expand...
1st drive, 3 passes and punt. 2nd drive, they ran the ball 4 times (out of 8 plays) and scored a td. 3rd drive, 4 passes and a punt. 4th drive, 1 pass and a TAINT. doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand you need to run the ball.

i turned it off at 21-7. just now seeing that they actually tied it up. before giving up the last 24 points of the game.
 
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