12/28 Bowls

[Smitty]

Was about to head out to run some errands, when I remembered this garbage.

BC (ML) 1 to win 4.2
Over (47.5) 2 units. SMU's reward for winning their conference... Boston in late December!! BC's offense is god-awful bad, but Castellanos is quick. Can't hit the broad side of a barn, and he throws almost as many INTs (13) as TDs (15). But he's quick. The Mustangs are gonna be chasing him all over on a cold, wet day. Yay!

 

[rocky mountain]

Was about to head out to run some errands, when I remembered this garbage.

BC (ML) 1 to win 4.2
Over (47.5) 2 units. SMU's reward for winning their conference... Boston in late December!! BC's offense is god-awful bad, but Castellanos is quick. Can't hit the broad side of a barn, and he throws almost as many INTs (13) as TDs (15). But he's quick. The Mustangs are gonna be chasing him all over on a cold, wet day. Yay!

I wish you would have propped Castellanos rushing yards over and passing yards under. You were spot on so far with his performance.

 

[Smitty]

Pinstripe

Another terrific idea for a bowl game... the Northeast in December! Sure, teams you finished ahead of are enjoying the beach. But, hey, New York City!!

Ok, quick synopsis... the Rutgers offense is TERRIBLE, led by maybe the worst qb in FBS. Wimsatt completed 47.8% of his passes for 9 TDs and 8 INTs, averaging 6.0 yards/att. The scary thing... this is an improvement over last year (44.8%, 5 & 7, 5.2/att). With zero threat of the pass, RB Monangai had a solid season, averaging 5.1 yards/att. Miami's defense was excellent against the run (3.17 yards/rush) and ok against the pass (7.15 yards/att). Of course, they are missing 5 or 6 starters on defense today.

Rutgers was very good against the pass (6.17/att) and only slightly above average against the run (4.01/rush). This defense should have gotten a warmer bowl game. The offense deserves the short trip across the river. Miami is starting a QB who didn't see the field this year. Last year, he threw 45 passes, completing 60% with 3 TDs and 3 INTs, averaging 5.1 yards/att. He also took 6 sacks. And ran for 223 yards on 54 carries.

Miami has lost their last 4 bowl games, with the last win in 2016. Greg Schiano is 5-2 in bowl games, but 0-1 since he returned to Rutgers.

Fuck, hard to imagine either team is all that excited about this one. Miami caught a little bit of a break, as it's expected to be in the low 50s.

Rutgers struggles to move the ball against air. I liked them when this matchup was announced, but I can't bet them now that they're favored.

Miami 1 to win 1.1
RU TT under 20.5 2 units

 

[Smitty]

I wish you would have propped Castellanos rushing yards over and passing yards under. You were spot on so far with his performance.

yeah, that woulda been easy. unfortunately, the books i use don't have player props for college. maybe for the NC, but that's it.

i only saw him play a little against syracuse. on that turf... man, he was lightning fast. but he's about as inaccurate as he is fast.

 

[Smitty]

Pop Tart

Armstrong is starting for NC St, which is a good thing. He ain't great, but he's better than Morris. Leading tackler Wilson (138, 65 more than #2) is out. For K St, 12-year senior Will Howard is gone. Point Guard and dude with a funny voice, Avery Johnson, will start at QB. He's put up decent numbers in limited playing time.

NC St has zero run game. Armstrong, with 544 yards, is their leading rusher. #2 is WR Concepcion, with 297.

I've been waiting to see Concepcion in a bowl game. The freshman has had a very good year. They try to get the ball in his hands any way they can. To go with his 64 catches, he has 38 carries.

The loss of Wilson is huge for the NC St defense.

K St (-3) 2 units
K St TT over (26.5) 4 units

 

[Four Corners]

Pop Tart

Armstrong is starting for NC St, which is a good thing. He ain't great, but he's better than Morris. Leading tackler Wilson (138, 65 more than #2) is out. For K St, 12-year senior Will Howard is gone. Point Guard and dude with a funny voice, Avery Johnson, will start at QB. He's put up decent numbers in limited playing time.

NC St has zero run game. Armstrong, with 544 yards, is their leading rusher. #2 is WR Concepcion, with 297.

I've been waiting to see Concepcion in a bowl game. The freshman has had a very good year. They try to get the ball in his hands any way they can. To go with his 64 catches, he has 38 carries.

The loss of Wilson is huge for the NC St defense.

K St (-3) 2 units
K St TT over (26.5) 4 units

Peyton Wilson won the Butkus Award ( Top LB) and Bednarik Award (Top Defensive player)...huge loss. Concepcion was really good vs. my Heels but not sure that is a great barometer for how good he is... #sadwave...Should be a good one!

 

[Smitty]

Alamo

Is this the worst 10-2 Oklahoma team ever? Even before the opt-outs? In addition to plenty of others, they are missing starters at LG, C, & RT. The original LG is also opting out, so they're down to 3rd string. And the next C on the depth chart is dealing with an injury.

After the switch at qb, Arizona lost their first 2 games... by 7 to Washington and in triple OT at USC. And they haven't lost since. Fifita has just completed 73.6% of his passes with 23 TDs and 5 INTs, averaging 8.5 yards/att. He has 2 WRs with at least 80 catches. Cowing, who is an NFL prospect, averaged 8.4 yards/catch. McMillan averaged 15.5 yards/catch. These two are a headache for the DC.

Ok, this one feels almost too easy. This game is going to mean a LOT more to Arizona than OK.

Arizona (-2) 4 units

 

[Smitty]

Peyton Wilson won the Butkus Award ( Top LB) and Bednarik Award (Top Defensive player)...huge loss. Concepcion was really good vs. my Heels but not sure that is a great barometer for how good he is... #sadwave...Should be a good one!

I'll be happy with a blowout.