12/29 Bowls

Smitty

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Clemson had their 2nd straight disappointing season. They are missing 5 starters for this one, maybe none bigger than LB Trotter, who led the team in tackles. They are also missing both starting CBs and a starting Safety.

RB Davis had a big year for UK, averaging 5.7 yards/carry and scoring 13 TDs. He should find some room to run against this defense without Trotter. Leary should be able to have some success, too, as Clemson is starting 2 true freshmen at CB. He's no stranger to playing Clemson, as he faced them 3 times in the ACC.

Clemson relies heavily on the ground game, as both Mafah and Shipley had over 150 carries. Neither was much of a stand-out though, as they averaged 5.3 and 5.1 yards/carry, respectively.

They are expecting steady winds around 15-17 mph all game, with gusts in the mid 20s. That puts more emphasis on the run game. UK has been better at stopping the run, allowing 3.33 yards/carry vs. 3.75 for Clemson.

My biggest concern is UK's game plan. Despite a very solid run game, they've thrown the ball more than they've run it this year. And they may be tempted to do the same tomorrow against Clemson's depleted secondary. But if they don't establish the ground game early, I think they're going to be in trouble. And with a Stoops as head coach, it's hard to rely on a good game plan.

Kentucky (ML) 5 to win 8.2.
UK 1H (ML) 2 to win 2.7. Just hoping they're smart enough to hand the ball to Ray Davis a lot.
 

Smitty

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What a clusterfuck. Oregon St is missing QB1 (Uiagalelei), which is helpful, because he fucking sucks. But they're also missing QB2 (Chiles), who has looked good in very limited time. So they're down to QB3 (Gulbranson) who started most of last year. He was ok, barely. But bad enough that they brought in Uiagalelei. At least he was decent in their bowl win over Florida, completing 12 of 19 for 165, a TD and no INT. Near as I can tell, Martinez is not playing, even though his suspension was lifted after his arrest. So that hurts the run game quite a bit. As does missing the left side of their offensive line. And their RT. On defense, they're missing their leading tackler and 2 starters from the secondary. And their Place Kicker is gone. And they might still be in better shape than ND. Of the 12 guys who took the most snaps on offense, 11 are not playing today. At least they are only down to their 2nd string qb. They are missing 2 starting CBs and a LB on defense.

Stats from the season are basically meaningless for this game.

Betting on this game is kinda dumb.

Watching this game is also kinda dumb, unless you are a huge fan of one of these teams and want a sneak peak at next year.

At least Oregon St has some experience at QB. That's about the only known quantity going into this game.

Oregon St (ML) 4 to win 6.6

The total has been hammered down to 40. Hard to imagine either team lighting it up, but in these meaningless games played between backups... who the hell knows?
 

Smitty

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Memphis is missing their RG & RT, and 2 starters from the defensive secondary. Iowa St is missing a starting CB and possibly a starting S. Oh, and their top 2 RBs in terms of carries. That looks like addition by subtraction, as the two missing guys averaged 4.7 & 3.9 yards/carry. Next guy up is Freshman Sama. All he did was average 8.5 yards/carry. He exploded in the season finale, racking up 276 yards on 16 carries against Kansas St. He did lose a fumble that game, his 2nd of the season. Kind of a lot with just 72 carries. Memphis recovered 9 fumbles this year, tied for 29th in the country. So Sama really needs to focus on hanging onto the ball.

Memphis really struggled against the run, allowing 4.74 yards/carry (91st in the country). They're not good against the pass either, giving up 7.73 yards/att (96th).

Memphis does most of their damage through the air, but Iowa St was very good against the pass this year, allowing 6.31 yards/att (15th in the country).
Memphis is 0-1 all-time in the Liberty Bowl... they lost to Iowa St in 2017.

Well, I certainly wish I got this game at 5.5, but I think the Cyclones are going to roll.

Iowa St (-10.5) 6 units
 
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Smitty

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I bet Missouri a couple weeks ago at -1.5. Looked good at the time, as the line went up to 2.5. Now... well, it never fucking fails. If I didn't bet it, Missouri would probably be -7 now. Anyway, I have...

Missouri (-1.5) 8 units
 
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ejthree

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I bet Missouri a couple weeks ago at -1.5. Looked good at the time, as the line went up to 2.5. Now... well, it never fucking fails. If I didn't bet it, Missouri would probably be -7 now. Anyway, I have...

Missouri (-1.5) 8 units
Smitty I just don't get this movement , I also have Mizzou and thought they win ez. I guess we missed something but anyway gonna get some ML now that there is extra value hopefully.
 

rocketrubly

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Smitty I just don't get this movement , I also have Mizzou and thought they win ez. I guess we missed something but anyway gonna get some ML now that there is extra value hopefully.
The movement is because the big 3 Ohio St wide receivers opted back in. But, I think closer to game time they opt out again or play a quarter or something like that. So Missouri at +5 if they end up not playing is a steal.
 
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rocky mountain

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The movement is because the big 3 Ohio St wide receivers opted back in. But, I think closer to game time they opt out again or play a quarter or something like that. So Missouri at +5 if they end up not playing is a steal.
I've opted not to care about any of this bowl games at this point , just like a lot of these teams /players. Looking more forward to the weekend and all football. Good luck!
 

Smitty

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Smitty I just don't get this movement , I also have Mizzou and thought they win ez. I guess we missed something but anyway gonna get some ML now that there is extra value hopefully.
yeah, it's nuts. normally, this kind of line movement would be the kiss of death if you're on the other side. but this bowl season... more often than not, it just means you're getting a better price. unless you're already locked in, like some of us.

of course, i know whatever i do now, it will be wrong. if i double down, ohio state will roll. if i don't do anything, ohio st will probably win but not cover the current spread.

i'm not exactly clear headed right now. the 4th quarter of uk/clemson still has me pretty pissed off. clemson's kicker, who barely made 50% of his fg's all year, goes 3-for-3, including the fucking 52-yarder that bounced off the crossbar. are you fucking kidding me? and then uk only rushes 3 guys on 3rd & 18, when they'd been doing great all game with pressure on klubnik. 8 sacks, and you decide to give him time on 3rd and 18? i've said it before, and i'll say it again... football coaches are the dumbest fucking people in the world. you can count the good ones on one hand.

and then 24 point in the 4th quarter of the sun bowl? seriously? i just needed that game to stay under 45.5 to close out a parlay. i was starting to count my money.
 
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