12/31 Bowls

[Smitty]

The Latest Sponsor Bowl

what the hell do you do with this game? alabama and michigan met last year in the national semis. and now... they're here. every single factor points to alabama. revenge for that semifinal game. most of their players are playing. most of michigan's aren't. it's going to be near 80 and humid.

for a second, i thought i could use the "first-year coach" angle, because DeBoer is in his first year at alabama. then i realized moore is in his first year at michigan. by the way, betting against a coach in his first year leading his program is now 7-1 this year. 6-2 if you bet against south alabama shortly before kickoff. i don't know how it's been the last few years, but historically that's gotta be one of the absolute strongest trends for bowl games.

anyway, the reality is there's no way either team is motivated to be here. maybe the alabama starters will be like cam ward and only play the first half.

gun to my head, i'd bet michigan. i think the line only moved 3 points since half their team announced they aren't playing. seems a little fishy.

luckily, i don't HAVE to bet a side. my suggestion would be to play an alternate line. get crazy. if you like alabama, lay 20.5 (+146). or bet michigan +7.5 (+172) or even on the ML.

all i'm doing on this game...

over (44.5) 1X. that's it.

 

[Smitty]

Sun Bowl

imagine being will rodgers (the qb, not the cowboy singer). you had a solid career at mississippi st, then transferred to the defending national runners-up for your last season. you have another decent season, completing nearly 71% of your passes, average 7.9 yards/att, and throw 14 TDs and 7 INTs. and you get benched for the finale. for a freshman! what a way to end your college career. anyway, i've seen enough bad sports movies to know that williams (the freshman) will get hurt and rodgers will enter the game. however, i'm guessing he's spent the last month thinking about how they did him dirty and he's gonna come in and toss 3 INTs.

ok, how about williams? well, we have the one start to go on. in all fairness, it was against oregon. and, at first glance, he wasn't bad, completing 17 of 20 for 201 yards and a TD (no INTs). he also ran the ball 22 times (holy crap!). for a total of 17 yards. ok, full story.... he was sacked 10 times. for the season, he had 73 pass attempts and was sacked 16 times. kinda par for the course for a freshman.

the starting qb for louisville (harrison bailey)... has exactly twice as many career pass attempts as williams. however, most of his game action came way back in 2020, when he was a freshman at tennessee. he was actually very good in his one start, although it was against Vandy. he completed 14 of 18 for 207 with 2 TDs and no INTs. and, hey, he hasn't thrown an incomplete pass this year! yup, he is 8-for-8 in some mop-up duty early in the season.

louisville has an outstanding freshman RB, isaac brown. he averaged 7.3 yards/carry. an impressive stat... he averages 6.5 yards/carry in the first half and 8.4 in the second half. gotta love seeing a freshman who gets stronger as the game goes on. oh, and one interesting stat... when he carries the ball on first and 10... he averages 8.8 yards/carry. shit, give him the ball every first down!!

washington was vulnerable to the run, giving up 4.4 yards/carry (79th in the country).

louisville's first 3 losses this year were nothing to be ashamed of... ND, SMU, and Miami, all by exactly 7. the loss at stanford is inexplicable, even if it was following their upset win over clemson.

despite the missing players, i still think louisville has the motivational edge. you don't play in the NC one year and the sun bowl the next year, and get excited about it.

oh, and washington's coach is in his first year there. boom!

louisville (-1) 5X
louisville 1H (ML) 2.3 to win 2

leaving over 49, but haven't decided yet.

 

[LordofBalls]

thanks for the effort smitty!

GL!

 

[ejthree]

The Latest Sponsor Bowl

what the hell do you do with this game? alabama and michigan met last year in the national semis. and now... they're here. every single factor points to alabama. revenge for that semifinal game. most of their players are playing. most of michigan's aren't. it's going to be near 80 and humid.

for a second, i thought i could use the "first-year coach" angle, because DeBoer is in his first year at alabama. then i realized moore is in his first year at michigan. by the way, betting against a coach in his first year leading his program is now 7-1 this year. 6-2 if you bet against south alabama shortly before kickoff. i don't know how it's been the last few years, but historically that's gotta be one of the absolute strongest trends for bowl games.

anyway, the reality is there's no way either team is motivated to be here. maybe the alabama starters will be like cam ward and only play the first half.

gun to my head, i'd bet michigan. i think the line only moved 3 points since half their team announced they aren't playing. seems a little fishy.

luckily, i don't HAVE to bet a side. my suggestion would be to play an alternate line. get crazy. if you like alabama, lay 20.5 (+146). or bet michigan +7.5 (+172) or even on the ML.

all i'm doing on this game...

over (44.5) 1X. that's it.

I played Bama early but was dumbfounded to wake this morning to a 16.5 line WTF …Final score 45-0 you win your Total lol…
GL Smitty…

 

[Smitty]

just an update... i did end up throwing 2 units on the over last night. i won't count that in my record, since it's now up to 50.5.

i'll work on the last 3 games in a couple hours. i'm 99.999% certain that i will be on illinois.

 

[rocky mountain]

just an update... i did end up throwing 2 units on the over last night. i won't count that in my record, since it's now up to 50.5.

i'll work on the last 3 games in a couple hours. i'm 99.999% certain that i will be on illinois.

On the over in Louisville game? Are you playing over in Michigan game?

 

[Smitty]

On the over in Louisville game? Are you playing over in Michigan game?

correct. and i did bet one unit on the over in the michigan game. it was nice of alabama to keep giving them the ball deep in their own territory. they understand what the Season of Giving is all about. woulda been even nicer if michigan had taken better advantage.

 

[Smitty]

Citrus Bowl

i'll try to keep this one brief, as it's almost an hour to kickoff, and i have no idea what i'm doing with the next game.

after watching south carolina a couple times, i knew i'd likely be betting against them in a bowl game. more specifically, i'm betting against sellers. talented kid, for sure. and a very tough runner. he's listed at 6'3" 242. but he's a turnover machine. only 7 INTs, but he sure likes putting the ball on the ground. i gotta believe he'll turn it over a few times in a bowl game where he's probably not super-motivated.

also, the loss of kennard is huge for the (other) USC defense.

on the other side, altmyer's decision making has improved from last year. he threw 10 INTs last year, but only 5 this year in 55 more attempts. they need him to have a big game today, as (the other) USC has been outstanding against the run, allowing 3.0 yards/carry, which is 7th in the country. i'm curious to see if illinois gives a few more carries to RB Laughery today. he had a solid year, picking up 6.4 yards/carry as RB-2. he got 12 carries in the season finale and picked up 172 yards.

altmyer is missing their top receiver, bryant. he had 54 catches and averaged 18.2 yards/catch. franklin is their only other receiver with more than 17 catches this year.

it's gonna be warm and windy. upper 70's, with wind in the mid-teens with gusts in the low-to-mid 20s.

Illinois (+9) 5X
Illinois (ML) 2 to win 5.5
Illinois 1H (+5.5) 5X

 

[1837]

Always a pleasure to read you Smitty old pal. Happy New Year to you and your family.

 

[Smitty]

Always a pleasure to read you Smitty old pal. Happy New Year to you and your family.

holy shit! i don't think i've seen you since.... well, 1837. roughly.

thank you, and happy new year to you and yours as well.

 

[Smitty]

Texas Bowl

i'd say the clear motivational edge is to baylor here. and i think that's the side i'm going to land on, despite the large line swing (from +3 to -3).

baylor doesn't appear to have lost anyone for this game to the portal. LSU is missing their top couple receivers and both starting tackles.

from actionnetwork.com....



offensively, baylor averages 6.2 yards/play, which is 19th in the country. LSU allows 5.7 per play, which is 77th. so even though LSU doesn't appear to be missing much on defense, that might not be a good thing.

Baylor (-3) 4.6 to win 4
Baylor 1H (-2.5) 4X

 

[ejthree]

Citrus Bowl

i'll try to keep this one brief, as it's almost an hour to kickoff, and i have no idea what i'm doing with the next game.

after watching south carolina a couple times, i knew i'd likely be betting against them in a bowl game. more specifically, i'm betting against sellers. talented kid, for sure. and a very tough runner. he's listed at 6'3" 242. but he's a turnover machine. only 7 INTs, but he sure likes putting the ball on the ground. i gotta believe he'll turn it over a few times in a bowl game where he's probably not super-motivated.

also, the loss of kennard is huge for the (other) USC defense.

on the other side, altmyer's decision making has improved from last year. he threw 10 INTs last year, but only 5 this year in 55 more attempts. they need him to have a big game today, as (the other) USC has been outstanding against the run, allowing 3.0 yards/carry, which is 7th in the country. i'm curious to see if illinois gives a few more carries to RB Laughery today. he had a solid year, picking up 6.4 yards/carry as RB-2. he got 12 carries in the season finale and picked up 172 yards.

altmyer is missing their top receiver, bryant. he had 54 catches and averaged 18.2 yards/catch. franklin is their only other receiver with more than 17 catches this year.

it's gonna be warm and windy. upper 70's, with wind in the mid-teens with gusts in the low-to-mid 20s.

Illinois (+9) 5X
Illinois (ML) 2 to win 5.5
Illinois 1H (+5.5) 5X

Just the facts ma'am...GL

 

[Smitty]

or bet michigan +7.5 (+172) or even on the ML.

wish i took my own damn suggestion.

ok, i've watched the first 3 quarters of the sun bowl. louisville looking solid, and already got the over.

i'm at halftime of the citrus bowl. no TOs from sellers yet, and illinois SHOULD be up 14-3. goddamn fumble at the goal line. still, a solid start.

haven't watched a single play of the other game. saw it was 14-0 early and just saw 34-14. guess i don't need to bother watching that one. can't win 'em all, i guess.

 

[Smitty]

Fiesta Bowl

two of my all-time favorite games involved these teams in the fiesta bowl. the 1987 game was insane for me. i was a penn st fan back in those days. i'll never forget the build-up... the "felons" from miami against the "straight-laced" boys from penn st. testeverde threw 5 (or was it 6?) INTs, including his final pass that pete giftopolis grabbed and wisely fell to the turf to clinch the win. that was probably the game where i learned that a solid fundamental football team could beat a much more talented team.

and, of course, the 2007 fiesta bowl. boise vs oklahoma... who could forget that one? i was still mostly betting $20 back then, but boise was a big bet for me. what a friggin' game.

Ok, somebody wants me to start getting dinner ready, and i have some work to do. soooo.... back to this game.

hard to really know how good either of these teams are. neither has a real "signature win." penn st beat illinois and SMU (both at home). boise st beat a decent UNLV team twice. both teams lost close games to oregon. back in september, boise lost at oregon on a game-ending fg. penn st, of course, lost on a neutral field by 7, but after the first quarter they never had the ball within one score. that game never really felt close. sooo... boise lost to oregon better than penn st?

i guess it comes down to.... PSU is overvalued after the SMU game. 12.5 is just too many. i think jeanty is too good for them to shut him down. and madsen is solid enough so that they can't put 11 guys in the box. madsen is really the key here. he had a very good season, averaging 7.5 yards/att with 22 TDs and only 3 INTs. BUT.... how will he do if he faces some serious game pressure, which he probably will. that oregon game is kinda the only sample we have. and he was not good. 17 of 40 for 148 (3.7 yards/att is pitiful) with a TD and no INTs. so as bad as he was, he didn't turn the ball over. and they still put up 34 at oregon. hopefully he learned from that experience. plus, that was a road game in a tough environment. this is a neutral-site game.

(side note.... my sister just texted me that she and her husband and my nephew will be in Vegas at the end of March for a couple days. suddenly i'm thinking maybe i can make it out there. although... it's the same time as my GF's birthday.)

alright, i'm starting to get a little buzz (happy new year!!) and should probably wrap this up. keeping it small, because i certainly can't love this game. but i think boise should be competitive.

boise st (+12.5) 2X
boise (ML) 1 to win 4

 

[rocky mountain]

Citrus Bowl

i'll try to keep this one brief, as it's almost an hour to kickoff, and i have no idea what i'm doing with the next game.

after watching south carolina a couple times, i knew i'd likely be betting against them in a bowl game. more specifically, i'm betting against sellers. talented kid, for sure. and a very tough runner. he's listed at 6'3" 242. but he's a turnover machine. only 7 INTs, but he sure likes putting the ball on the ground. i gotta believe he'll turn it over a few times in a bowl game where he's probably not super-motivated.

also, the loss of kennard is huge for the (other) USC defense.

on the other side, altmyer's decision making has improved from last year. he threw 10 INTs last year, but only 5 this year in 55 more attempts. they need him to have a big game today, as (the other) USC has been outstanding against the run, allowing 3.0 yards/carry, which is 7th in the country. i'm curious to see if illinois gives a few more carries to RB Laughery today. he had a solid year, picking up 6.4 yards/carry as RB-2. he got 12 carries in the season finale and picked up 172 yards.

altmyer is missing their top receiver, bryant. he had 54 catches and averaged 18.2 yards/catch. franklin is their only other receiver with more than 17 catches this year.

it's gonna be warm and windy. upper 70's, with wind in the mid-teens with gusts in the low-to-mid 20s.

Illinois (+9) 5X
Illinois (ML) 2 to win 5.5
Illinois 1H (+5.5) 5X

This was a great call!! I tailed you on this but unfortunately bet the over too....

 

[Smitty]

This was a great call!! I tailed you on this but unfortunately bet the over too....

well, if you grabbed some ML, hopefully you made out ok.

i'm actually kinda shocked that sellers didn't turn the ball over once and illinois still won. the few times i saw him play... when he was focused, he was damn tough to bring down. but he was also very prone to putting the ball on the ground.

interesting first half in the fiesta bowl. boise was looking completely outclassed early, but hung around. they need to break jeanty loose. i can't remember who, but someone here mentioned that they thought they'd get him the ball in the passing game, and that's proved prophetic so far.

 

[rocky mountain]

well, if you grabbed some ML, hopefully you made out ok.

i'm actually kinda shocked that sellers didn't turn the ball over once and illinois still won. the few times i saw him play... when he was focused, he was damn tough to bring down. but he was also very prone to putting the ball on the ground.

interesting first half in the fiesta bowl. boise was looking completely outclassed early, but hung around. they need to break jeanty loose. i can't remember who, but someone here mentioned that they thought they'd get him the ball in the passing game, and that's proved prophetic so far.

I didnt... I lost about $1,600 like an stubborn A Hole with that shit call on Bama, $900 chasing , sooooo stupid after years of experience i should have left not well enough alone and took my pregame lumps. Fired and got it back mostly with over a g on overs in that LSU game. Look forward to your plays tomorrow. I'm resting , repairing my nervous system. Trying to complete my first season ever ahead at the end, lol... a life's bucket list goal. Boise always so fundamentally sound!

 

[Smitty]

Look forward to your plays tomorrow. I'm resting , repairing my nervous system. Trying to complete my first season ever ahead at the end, lol... a life's bucket list goal.

that's a good goal! is that just for college, or all football?

i'll pretty much definitely be on oregon tomorrow (well, later today, i guess). ohio st isn't playing a home game against a freshman qb this week. and i don't see me betting on notre dame, but georgia was certainly weaker than in recent years.

historically, i've done a lot better in the bowl games where i could figure out which team actually wanted to be there. not so great in the big bowl games and now the playoffs. so fading me later today may not be a bad idea.

alright, guess i should get some sleep. i already made the 7-layer dip. that will be lunch, snack, and dinner tomorrow. er, today.

 

[rocky mountain]

that's a good goal! is that just for college, or all football?

i'll pretty much definitely be on oregon tomorrow (well, later today, i guess). ohio st isn't playing a home game against a freshman qb this week. and i don't see me betting on notre dame, but georgia was certainly weaker than in recent years.

historically, i've done a lot better in the bowl games where i could figure out which team actually wanted to be there. not so great in the big bowl games and now the playoffs. so fading me later today may not be a bad idea.

alright, guess i should get some sleep. i already made the 7-layer dip. that will be lunch, snack, and dinner tomorrow. er, today.

All football. Looking forward to your writeups as always 😀. HNY!!