Saturday 13th December
A lot of bets appealed to me today. Was willing to play up to five bets, but have narrowed down to three for Saturday.
Northampton vs Agen
A profitable angle I expect to cash in on this tournament is a direct result of last years domination of the tournament by the French clubs. Last season, the French teams were slightly under rated, which led to some generous lines and good profits. This season is somewhat contrasting. The lines are heavily in favour of the French, and at this stage, it seems French rugby has hopped back on its perch of being unbeatable at home, but vulnerable away. These French teams are still high quality opposition, but I feel the edge lies with the English and Irish teams in this years competition.
A good example of what I am saying applies to this Northampton-Agen fixture. Agen are probably not entitled to be only worthy of a nine point start. They are playing in their first Heineken Cup, were not convincing against the poor Scottish Borders last weekend, and tend to be a little ill disciplined. They are not a team littered with international players, but are rather a tight tough team, who can beat anybody at home. However, there is a pattern developing here. They have lost four of their last four away matches in the French Championship (heard that before??
), and defensively look very vulnerable.
The Saints are a team who have been there and done it in this format. Previous winners, they will look to deny the French a bonus point on their home patch. They were awful last week against Llanelli, and only the Pope can tell me how they kept the margin to only a five point loss. Offensively they seemed to lack options, and although very impressive defensively, they had to rely on the boot of Paul Grayson to keep them in the game. Grayson himself, may see a lot of the ball tomorrow. Expect the Saints to have a number of penalty chances from the ill disciplined French. They may well fall short of scoring four tries, but denying opposition a bonus point is a mini victory in itself during this stage, and I think layers may have given this French outfit a little too much respect on this occasion.
1 Point Northampton (-9) at 10/11 with PaddyPower
Calivasano vs London Wasps
Stepping into the unknown a little here by backing a Italian team with a good start.
The Wasps are certainly leading contenders to lift the title in May, but looking at Warren Gatlands selection, he may well settle for a win, rather than seeking a bonus point. He has left out Josh Lewsey, Lawrence Dallaglio, Rob Howley, Simon Shaw and Craig Dowd. You take five world class players out of any team, and you are severely weakened.
The Italians have actually been the one Italian team who have been worthy of their place in the Heineken Cup. They have given some big sides the shakes at their home ground in recent seasons. The more important factor is that they have shown that they can score points at will. They have scored plenty in recent Heineken Cup matches back home in Italy, and I am banking on them scoring up to twenty against the Wasps. If I am right, then the Wasps would have to score near fifty points to cover the spread, and I think that is a tall order at this stage of competition.
1 Point Calivasano (+24) at 10/11 with PaddyPower
May upgrade this to a two point bet overnight. Not decided as yet.
Perpignan vs Celtic Warriors
Looking at a mighty backlash here, after last seasons finalists were outplayed in every department by London Wasps last weekend. They will base their qualification hopes on being unbeatable at home, in what is known as the 'bullring'. It is considered one of the hardest grounds in Europe, to go and win a rugby match, and this match looks like it has come way too soon for the newly formed Celtic Warriors side.
The Warriors will actually improve as the season progresses, and will be a top side in Europe next season. However, they are very much on a learning curve at this level. Although they field a backline to match anything else at this level, they should be smashed to bits upfront, and will be hard pressed to stop the kind of robust forward dominated rugby this French team love to play. At fly half you have a genius called Manny Edmonds, who should thrive on quality ball tomorrow.
A game in which Perpignan will definitely look to score four or more tries to secure a bonus point, and if they are in the mood to play for eighty minutes, it could get ugly.
1 Point Perpignan (-15) at 10/11 with SkyBet
