2005 mac football previews ........

gman2

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Looking at the offense

Buffalo is fresh off a 2-9 season and their offense did next to nothing last year, but there is a bit of optimism for 2005. 20 seniors, 44 letter
winners, and 14 starters overall return this fall for the Bulls. It's definitely the most experienced team that Jim Hofher has had in his five years
as UB head coach.

The problem? The Bulls had serious quarterback issues last year, and the position still isn't completely settled heading into 2005. Whomever the
starter is, he won't be a senior, as the four guys in the running are either sophomores or juniors. Chris Moore, who saw action in 3 games as a
true freshman last year (and started once) is recovering from offseason shoulder surgery. JUCO transfer Tony Paoli enters his first season in
the Bulls program, and Stewart Sampsel hasn't taken a snap for the Bulls yet after transferring from Toledo two years ago. Datwan
Hemingway, who played in four games at QB last season, didn't even play in the spring game due to an academic issue. There are a lot of
question marks, and few answers, at quarterback for the Bulls.

The running game is also unsettled, but the situation in the backfield is much different because the guys they have competing for the starting
job are actually all pretty good. The likely starter is Steven King, who rushed for 445 yards and 7 TDs last fall while splitting time with three
other guys. He's the biggest of the returning running backs (at 6'0 / 210 pounds) and has the potential to be a solid feature back. Whether he'll
get the chance to handle the lion's share of the carries remains to be seen. Chris McDuffie and Jared Patterson, both juniors, will get the
remaining carries that King doesn't take, and both had their moments in 2004. Buffalo's running game was an enigma in 2004. There were some
games where they were very good on the ground, and King, McDuffie, and Patterson all proved to be capable backs. But then there were times
when they failed to show up. The passing game will be mediocre at best this fall, so it's imperative for the backs to step up and carry the
offense.

The quarterback woes coincide with the wide receiver woes for the Bulls. The guys throwing the ball weren't particularly good, and the guys
trying to get open to catch it...well, they weren't very good either last year. Terrance Breaux showed some promise as a true freshman last
season, catching 23 passes for 330 yards. He'll be the go-to receiver for the Bulls this fall. Running back Dave Dawson is gonna make the move
to receiver for his senior season. He's small ( 5'7 / 182 ) but his speed and quickness should really be a boost to the receiving corps, and will be a
nice complement to Breaux, who is a bigger receiver at 6'2 / 210. After these two, jobs are there for the taking. No receiver after Breaux had
more than 13 catches last year, so somebody needs to step up in a hurry.

The offensive line is capable of doing a decent job. Zack Love, who is a big boy at 6'4 / 324, has made 35 career starts and he's back for his
senior season. Mike Schifino is another senior coming back, and he's made 25 straight starts at guard. Leroy Auguste rounds out the group of
returning linemen. Sophomore Jon Burgio isn't slated for a starting position, but at 6'9 / 344, he's certainly an intriguing guy to have on the
sidelines available to step in.

Looking at the defense

The experience that Buffalo returns on defense makes them somewhat of an intriguing team. They've got a lot of depth on the defensive line,
and even last year, despite the woes of the offense, the defense wasn't completely horrific. While the offense finished 2nd worst in the nation,
the defense was a semi-respectable 90th out of 117 teams. It's all relative obviously, but there IS some talent on this side of the ball.

Senior defensive end Phil Jacques leads the Buffalo defense up front, and he's started all 35 games in his Buffalo career. Aaron Sanders is
another senior that plays on the opposite end, and he started every game last year for the Bulls. In fact, the entire D-line is composed of
seniors. They helped lead a defense that was tied for 6th (out of 14 MAC teams) in rushing defense / yards per carry last fall. They had a hard
time containing Josh Cribbs in the Kent State game, but they weren't the only defense to be shredded by the elusive Cribbs.

A lot of linebackers see action for Buffalo, but they rotate often in their 4-2-5 set. Bryan Cummings and Rich Sanders are seniors, and they
were both in the top 5 in tackles for the Bulls last fall.

The secondary has a good amount of experience as well, and with senior Aaron Leeper returning from injury (he missed all of last year), the unit
becomes even better. Gemara Williams had a nice season in '04, finishing 3rd on the team in tackles and leading the secondary in passes broken
up. James Vann started every game as a sophomore last year.

The special teams have a solid unit (punting) and a shaky one (placekicking). Ben Woods averaged 41.2 yards per kick as a true freshman last
year, and his leg got a serious workout as he kicked it away 72 times. He should be one of the better punter in the MAC this fall, but the Bulls can
only hope he won't have to approach 70+ attempts again. Micheal Baker made only 5 of 13 field goal tries in 2004, and was just 1-5 from 30-39
yards. The Bulls can't afford to waste scoring opportunities this year, so he's going to have to improve on his sub-50% accuracy.

Summary

For the first time in many years, there's a reason for at least a LITTLE optimism for the Buffalo football program. They've taken some serious
lumps after jumping to 1-A. Young guys were really thrown into the fire, but a lot of those players are now seniors and have a lot of experience.
This would be a very intriguing, almost dangerous, team if they had a better offense, especially at quarterback and receiver. Their running
backs are more than capable of being productive. But the passing game is gonna really struggle. The defense should be good enough to keep
them in a lot of games, but if the offense can't generate yards and points, it might all be for naught.

Still, there's something intriguing about this group. After the men's basketball team made a jump from almost worst to first, can lighting strike
twice for UB sports? That answer is an emphatic NO, but they should be much better than last year, even if they don't improve much on their
2-9 record. The non-conference schedule is competitive but not brutal. Most MAC teams open up with big-time power conference opponents, but
the Bulls have three regional rivals to open the year (at UConn, at Syracuse, home to Rutgers). While it's really a stretch to "expect" a win in
any of the first three, they have a chance to be competitive in each one, considering UConn is replacing Orlovsky, Syracuse is rebuilding, and
the Rutgers game is at home.

The MAC schedule is a little unkind, though, because they play the three best teams (Bowling Green, Toledo, and Miami) all within a 4-game
stretch, and only the BG game is at home. There should be some opportunities to make money back the Bulls as significant dogs this year. They
are --- slloooowwwlllyyyy -- heading in the right direction.
 

gman2

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goat - did you go to the kent spring game? if its alright with you, im gonna grab your email from jack and get in touch with ya.
 

BigSlick

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gman:

1st - good work - that takes a lot of discipline and time (I hope you've managed to stay employed).

2nd - I read your Miami (OH) preview and wondered what you thought about the game now that the lines are starting to come out. I, for one, think 17 makes Miami a monster play. Do you think Miami's D is good enough to keep them in it or that Miami's O is good enough to back-door this one? I think the OSU team is a little inflated across the board and I really liked the way Miami came on towards the end of last year. Any thoughts would be appreciated.
 

gman2

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slick:

im steering clear of the miami/osu game. on paper, it looks like a great spot for the hawks, but im just not comfortable with a few things on miami's side of the ball.

1) betts still scares me on the road against good defenses. he's really erratic with the ball and even though id LIKE to think that he has matured and understands his role better, i have indelible memories of the michigan game in the season opener last yr (5 betts turnovers) and the marshall game on the road (4 betts turnovers). now to be fair, he did get better as last season progressed. but im just not comfortable with backing miami in week 1, considering point #2 below as well

2) i think its going to take a few games before miami's offense finds its rhythm because of the significant hit they took at running back (to graduation). clemens and smith were both solid backs, and they probably didnt get the credit they deserved when roethlisberger was there and putting up all those points. if miami cant run the football, they are at a huge disadvantage against osu. i think miami is going to be a little out of sync offensively in the early weeks. just a gut feeling. their receivers are very very good, but miami cant go into ohio state and expect to be one-dimensional.

3) although each year is obviously separate from the others, i still have a hard time overlooking how incredibly lame miami has been in their visits to big ten stadiums the last 2 years in season openers. roethlisberger brought a very good miami team into iowa to open the season in 2003, and miami played like sh1t. betts and miami had high expectations going into last years season opener in michigan... and miami laid another egg and got blown out.

it just seems like miami is a team that gets better as the season progresses. and i expect they'll be that way this year.

now DESPITE all that, its still entirely possible that miami could cover that game even with a subpar offensive effort, because ohio state has a tendency to be very conservative in the opening weeks of seasons under tressel. combine that with the scheduling for ohio state (having texas up next), then throw in the smith suspension..... and miami does have some appeal at +17.

but i just cant comfortably pull the trigger here. no way in hell would i lay 17 with ohio state. but i just dont think we'll see miami's best offense in this game.

to answer your question about the D:
miami's defense is more than capable of containing osu's offense. it should be a very good unit. but if miami struggles to run the ball effectively, the miami defense could, subsequently, be on the field for a lot of snaps.

hope that helped in some way
 

BigSlick

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It did - thanks for your honest and well-articulated input. I'll probably still play Miami, but I'll defer to your opinion and make it a very small play. Thanks again.
 

gman2

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WESTERN MICHIGAN BRONCOS


Looking back at 2004

It's hard to believe that a program that was one of the best in the MAC in the late 90s has fallen this far, but
that's been the case at Western Michigan lately. The Broncos truly hit rock bottom in 2004, winning just one
game all season (against 1-AA Tennessee-Martin) and finishing near the bottom of every statistical
category on defense -- 115/117 in total defense, 113/117 in scoring defense, 109/117 in passing defense,
and 106/117 in rushing defense. In a season filled with "lows", the lowest point might have been the 52-0
loss on the road to Bowling Green. That loss could have been much, much, much worse for WMU had Bowling
Green not shown some class by calling the dogs off, because in that game, BGSU led 49-0 at halftime, and
put up a truly absurd 551 yards of total offense in the first half ALONE.

After opening the season with a 42-0 win over Tennessee-Martin, Western Michigan went to Blacksburg and
got smoked 63-0 by Virginia Tech. In typical Virginia Tech fashion, they recovered a Western Michigan
fumble and took it back for 6, and also incepted a Ryan Cubit pass and took it back for 6 as well. The game
was a blowout at halftime and only got worse for the Broncos in the final 30:00.

Next up was Illinois on the road, and Western Michigan rebounded to play pretty well. Illinois was a Big 10
bottom feeder in 2004, but they were still a comfortable favorite over WMU, but the Broncos took the Illini
to the wire before losing 30-27. The game was there for the taking, but Western Michigan made critical
mistakes that allowed Illinois to steal the game. With 3:05 left, Western Michigan punted the ball away to
Illinois and, had all gone well, would have pinned the Illini back deep in their own territory. But WMU allowed
Illinois to return the punt 40 yards to set up great field position, and then the Broncos were called for pass
interference in the end zone five plays later. The penalty set up a 4-yd TD run and gave Illinois a 30-27 win.
Through three games, it still wasn't apparent that WMU would be on their way to such a dismal season. They certainly weren't the first team to
get smashed by Virginia Tech on the road, and their effort vs. Illinois gave reason to believe they might be able to be a middle-of-the-pack MAC
team. But any hopes of being a competitive MAC team were quickly dashed in the first month of conference play.

The Broncos opened up the MAC portion of the schedule in Ball State and were drilled 41-14. The game was close through 3 quarters (20-14 Ball
State heading to the 4th) but the Broncos had absolutely no answer for Ball State stud receive Dante Ridgeway, and he caught two 4th quarter
TD passes to go along with a TD reception earlier in the game and a total of 217 yards. The Broncos allowed Ball State, a team who finished 2-9 in
'04, to rack up 476 yards of total offense.

Toledo was up next, and they made the Ball State offensive output vs. WMU look almost pedestrian. In a 59-33 win, Toledo put up 649 (correct,
649 yards) of total offense, and had terrific balance along the way -- 299 yards passing, 350 yards rushing. Bruce Gradkowski only threw four
incompletions in 27 attempts. Western Michigan's offense didn't play poorly (they had 397 yards of offense and 33 points, which would be solid
production on most days) but they couldn't stop Toledo's offense at any point in the game. The Rockets had 36 first downs and held a 38:59 --
21:01 edge in time of possession, both signs of a dominant, ball-control offense.

The loss put WMU at 1-4 heading into their matchup at home with rival Eastern Michigan. The Broncos took a 28-20 lead into the 4th quarter, but
Eastern Michigan rallied and scored the game-winning tocuhdown on a 30-yard pass with 0:46 to play. Despite the relatively even statistics, it was
a game Western Michigan had no business losing. They held EMU quarterback Matt Bohnet to just 13 completions in 35 attempts. Part of the
problem, however, was that when Bohnet DID connect, it usually went for a big gain because he still threw for 225 yards. Western Michigan
quarterback Ryan Cubit threw for 338 yards and 4 touchdowns in the loss. Greg Jennings had 11 catches for 142 yards and two scores.

The Broncos looked uninspired the next week against Northern Illinois and were blown out 59-38. There were a few things that stood out from this
game. First is that there were 97 points scored in a game played in a downpour of rain. The fact that it was played on FieldTurf made the
conditions a lot more playable, but it was just a crazy offensive game. Western Michigan had 494 yards of total offense, 28 first downs, and 38
points..... but still got blown out. That's because, for yet another game, their defense provided absolutely no help. Some of the Northern Illinois
offensive statistics were out of a video game. NIU quarterback Josh Haldi completed 15 of 22 passes for 333 yards and SIX TOUCHDOWNS. You
normally see 6 touchdowns thrown by a quarterback who attempts upward of 50 or 55 passes in a game. Haldi had just 15 completions, and 6 of
them went for touchdowns. Dan Sheldon caught six passes for 213 yards (a 35 yard per catch average), and Brad Cieslak had 4 for 111 and a
score. Garrett Wolfe added 185 yards on 20 rushing carries for good measure. WMU did their best to match Northern Illinois score for score, but
when your defense simply cannot get a stop, you ultimately stand no chance of winning.

Another tough loss followed against Central Michigan. The Broncos snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, as they found a way to blow a 21-7
lead with only 3:14 left in the game. Kent Smith rallied the CMU offense to 14 points in the final 2:02 to send the game into overtime, where
Central Michigan won on a chip-shot field goal.

The following week might as well be known as Black Saturday for Western Michigan football. The Broncos suffered a handful of blowout losses,
but the 52-0 loss to Bowling Green was easily the worst, primarily because WMU was thoroughly dominated and looked like a grade school team.
It really looked like Omar Jacobs was running a 7-on-7 air skeleton for BG because his receivers were so open, and his offensive line negated any
Western Michigan pass rush. The stats have been mentioned before, but they're worth repeating. 28-0 after the first quarter. 49-0 Bowling Green
at halftime. 551 total yards for Bowling Green in the 1st half. 200+ yards rushing for P.J.Pope before halftime. Just a total destruction.

Unfortunately for Western Michigan, the season wasn't over yet. They still had to play Miami and Marshall, and they took their perfunctory
beatings in those games by scores of 42-21 and 31-21. In both games, just like it was all season, the offense did enough to win but the defense
just put the team in too big a hole early on in each game.

For the season, WMU finished up 1-10, and Gary Darnell, who had revived the program in the mid-90s and led WMU to a handful of
championship-caliber seasons shortly thereafter, was fired and replaced by Bill Cubit. Incidentally, Cubit is the father of current WMU
quarterback Ryan Cubit, and was also the offensive coordinator at WMU in the late 90s when the Broncos had some of their best teams.
 

gman2

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The Western Michigan offense

The Broncos bring back the nucleus of what has a chance to be a very good offense. It's not often, nor always logical, that a team that only won
one game the prior year can have the makings of a good offense, but that actually is the case in Kalamazoo. It's the defense that has serious
issues and ended up contributing significantly to the 1-10 record in 2004.

Ryan Cubit returns for his senior season after splitting time with the now-graduated Blayne Baggett. The 6'2 /210 lb. Cubit threw for 1887 yards
last year and 14 touchdowns. The downside is that he threw 12 interceptions, and his near 1:1 TD-to-INT ratio has to improve if the Broncos are
going to have a better season. He's got the tools to be a good quarterback, and he is one of the few quarterbacks in the MAC that has a
game-breaking wide receiver AND tight end as options to throw to. So there's no excuse for him not to have a good year.

Trovon Riley has had a nice career at Western Michigan, and he's also back for his senior season. He might not be one of the marquee backs in
the conference, but he's a good fit for the WMU offense. He has the power to run inside, but also enough speed to get outside. And he catches
the ball well out of the backfield. After Riley's 174 carries, sophomore Mark Bonds had the 2nd most carries on the team with 67 as a true
freshman in 2004.

The best tight end in the conference is Western Michigan senior Tony Scheffler. He is a legitimate NFL prospect that has the size (6'6 / 260) and
the receiving ability (53 catches for 570 yards in '04) to play on Sundays. He missed all of 2003 with an injury but proved to be fully recovered as
his production last year certainly attested. If Scheffler has another solid season, that will make life a lot easier for not just Ryan Cubit at
quarterback, but it will indirectly help Greg Jennings, who is one of the MAC's most explosive and dynamic receivers. While depth at receiver is a
bit of an issue for WMU, Jennings is an absolute stud who can be a one-man show at times. He caught 74 passes for 1092 yards last year, and 11
of those were for touchdowns. His pure speed is only rivaled by a few other MAC receivers. What he needs, though, is someone to step up and
be a productive #2 receiver. After Jennings, the leading returning receiver for the Broncos is sophomore Brian Jackson, who caught 19 passes
last year as a freshman. Jackson has very good size ( 6'4 / 211 ) and he is going to be counted on heavily this year.

The offensive line returns 4 starters from a year ago. Center Robbie Krutilla started all 11 games as a redshirt freshman last year and did a
pretty good job handling one of the most critical roles on the field. What's a little puzzling about the offensive line is that the running backs
working behind them rushed for just 3.0 yards per carry in 2004, despite the Broncos having one of the bigger lines in the conference (3 of the 5
upfront are 310+ lbs). The Broncos MUST run the ball effectively this fall if they want to improve on their current doormat status in the MAC.

The Western Michigan defense

Whoa, boy. This was not a good unit last year and they're going to have to collectively improve if Western Michigan is going to have a better
season. The top three tacklers are gone from a defense that allowed 39.6 points per game (5th worst in the nation).

Some notable defensive stats from 2004:

* allowed 5.3 yards per rushing to opposing running backs
* allowed 475+ yards of total offense in 5 of 11 games last year
* allowed 1684 yards in a 3-game stretch last year (Toledo-Central Michigan-Bowling Green)
* only forced 16 turnovers the whole season

Depending on how you look at it, the fact that Western Michigan returns only 3 significant starters on defense is either a great thing....or a
number that portends even worse things for the defense in 2005.

The defensive line is very average. On the inside, they return two seniors at defensive tackle in their 4-3 scheme. They lose Jack Gitler to
graduation, and he was their 2nd leading tackler from a year ago. The D-line really didn't put a whole lot of pressure on opposing quarterbacks,
and as a team WMU recorded only 20 sacks. Only Eastern Michigan, Central Michigan, and Ball State had fewer sacks than WMU did in 2004.
Darryl McFadden, a sophomore defensive end expected to see time this year, has left the team at the beginning of fall practice to take care of
some academic issues. According to the head coach, he could return to the team "within a couple of weeks".

The linebackers are led by Paul Tithof, who was a first-team freshman All-America in 2003 and followed that that season up with 56 tackles and
4 sacks last year as a sophomore. He is the Broncos' leading returning tackler. Darrell Copeland is moving from safety to linebacker and this is
an interesting move to say the least. Ay year ago, he was expected to be a big-time player in the secondary; now it gives the Broncos some
pretty small linebackers (both Tithof and Copeland are 6'1 and they go 217 and 215, respectively) on the outside. Josh Behrens is the linebacker
in the middle, and he had 3 sacks and 8 tackles for loss in 2004.

The secondary is where there's a lot of youth and inexperience. There's a chance that some freshmen could see time in the defensive backfield.
E.J. Biggers was named player of the year in Miami, Florida as a senior in high school last year. There's a chance he could see some time as a
true freshman this fill. Another freshman out of Miami, Louis Delmas, has seen some time with the first team during fall camp. Teams are going
to really go after the young corners for WMU though, especially after having so much success against the Broncos secondary last year. Job are
wide open for the taking, but whomever the starters end up being, they can expect to be tested early.

On special teams, sophomore Jim Laney will have some big shoes to fill in trying to replace Adam Anderson, who was quietly the MAC's leading
punter last year with a 42.8 yard average. The placekicking position is unsettled heading into the fall. Junior Nate Meyer is back, but he only
attempted 4 field goals last year, and made only 1 of them. Mike Jones and Nick Fugate, but they're inexperienced as well. Jones is a
sophomore and Fugate is a redshirt freshman.

Summary

New head coach Bill Cubit has his work cut out for him, but this team isn't without hope. There is a lot of talent returning on offense and Ryan
Cubit has some playmakers to throw to in Greg Jennings and tight end Tony Scheffler. The biggest keys for the offense will be opening up bigger
holes for Riley in the running game, as well as finding someone to step up and be a bonafide #2 receiver in the passing game. The offensive line
did a good job of protecting the QB in 2004, and that is a good trend that must continue. A bit of a recent concern, however, is quarterback
Ryan Cubit sitting out of some practice time this past week (the week of August 7th) with a flareup of shin splints. That injury is always a bit
touchy, and he has to be healthy for Western Michigan to make any sort of progress. All indications are that it's only a minor setback, but thats
a tricky injury that can flareup at any time.

The defensive is very young, and there's no doubt that opposing quarterbacks are going to be gunning for the Broncos' young secondary. But
the two freshman recruits there could turn out to be solid players. As it stands, though, the defensive backfield could get torched early on while
they try to find some stability and cohesiveness. The defense has to get more pressure on the QB and force more turnovers. 20 sacks and 16
forced turnovers isn't going to cut it if WMU wants to get back to being a player in the MAC.

The schedule is a little rough early on, but is very favorable to them in late-September and all of October. The season opener is at Virginia, with
a road trip to Toledo in week two. So they're gonna be looking at 0-2 heading into a home game with Southern Illinois who, despite being 1-AA,
is a very formidable opponent who gave Northern Illinois all they could handle last year. But after that, they travel to Temple and then play
three of their next 4 at home. There could be some very nice "play-on" spots for WMU in those games if the lines are favorable. It would be a
huge disappointment if Western Michigan didn't at least triple their win total from last year. Going from 1 win to at least 3 wins is certainly not
cause for celebration, but baby steps are what it's gonna take for this program to get back to where it was in the late 90s.
 

bohawk

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G-Man, just got back from 9 member family trip to Vegas,Grand
Canyon & Sou Cal. No time to look@ Col FB. Thanks for the Info
on Mid Am Conf. Helps my upcoming capping alot.
Looking forward to your exerpertise.
 

gman2

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no problem bohawk. one more preview to come, and thats your avatar boys -- the rockets. but you already know what theyve got ;) should be another solid season from UT, although that final game on the road against bg on national tv looms large... and the season hasnt even started, lol.
 

gman2

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TOLEDO ROCKETS

Looking back at the 2004 season

The University of Toledo brought high expectations into the 2004 season. They
returned a number of talented skill position players on offense and were picked
by many to win the MAC West.

Two games into the season, meeting those expectations looked like it was going
to take a minor miracle, considering the Rockets were smashed 63-21 by
Minnesota and 63-14 by Kansas in consecutive weeks. For comparison's sake,
Auburn led the nation in scoring defense last year and allowed 134 points
combined in 12 games. After two games, Toledo's defense had given up 126
points. Perhaps even more concerning than the defense, however, was the slow
start the Toledo spread offense was off to. Against Minnesota, the Rockets
gained 407 yards of offense, but a lot of that was in garbage time. The Gophers
led 63-7 with under 10:00 to play in the game before Toledo pushed two scores
across to make the game look semi-competitive. Toledo quarterback Bruce
Gradkowski only threw for 202 yards and never seemed to be on the same page with his receivers. Only two receivers finished the game with a reception, and the Rockets were soundly beaten in the season opener.

A trip to Kansas was supposed to provide Toledo with a chance to even up their record, but they were inexplicably slaughtered 63-14. Simply put,
the game was never a game. Kansas led 28-0 after the first quarter and were up 42-0 with only 4:00 gone in the second quarter. Toledo's offense
was grounded once again, generated just 298 yards of total offense despite running 72 plays from scrimmage. The Rockets had just 11 first
downs, and ran the ball for less than 2 yards a carry on 37 attempts. The MAC conference favorite was sitting at 0-2 on September 12th, and had
been outscored 126-35 heading into their conference opener at Eastern Michigan.

Toledo finally got things back on track against Eastern Michigan. In a 42-32 win, Bruce Gradkowski finally found his rhythm and threw for 338
yards and 3 touchdowns. Toledo was a 6 point favorite and seemed to on their way to a comfortable cover, leading 42-17 with 3:00 left in the third
quarter, but Eastern Michigan rallied to cut it to 42-32 and had a chance to pull off a backdoor cover thanks to a failed 4th down gamble by Toledo.
The Rockets were up by 10 (42-32) and had the ball 4th and 2 from about midfield. The called timeout and decided to go for it as opposed to kicking
it away and giving the ball back to EMU. Quinton Broussard was stuffed for no gain, and EMU took over at the Toledo 47 with just over 1:00 to go.
The Eagles got as close as the Toledo 13 yard line and had it 1st and 10 from that spot, but failed to punch it in.

Temple came to Toledo the following week for a non-conference game and the Owls actually took a surprising 14-0 late in the first quarter. Toledo
quickly dismissed any thought of a Temple upset, though, because they scored 45 of the game's final 48 points en route to a 45-17 win.
Gradkowski was 22-27 and threw for 2 touchdowns while running for one himself. Things were back to normal for the Toledo offense and they were
back to .500 at 2-2.

Ball State provided a cakewalk for Toledo the next week, and the Rockets exploded for 645 yards of total offense and 52 points in an easy 52-14
win. Bruce Gradkowsi hooked up with Kenny Higgings for touchdown strikes of 60 yards and 96 yards.....in the first 6:00 of the game. Gradkowski
finished the game with 455 yards passing and 6 touchdowns, while Higgins caught 10 passes for a career high 233 yards.

Things only got better for Toledo against Western Michigan on the road. They led 45-20 and won convincingly, 59-33. The balance of Toledo's
offense was impressive; they ran for 350 yards and passed for 299. Western Michigan tried to match Toledo score for score, but couldn't keep up
after halftime. The win put Toledo at 4-2, but there was still some questions as to whether Toledo's offense would be able to score with such
frequency against the better defenses in the conferences, considering that they had some stiff tests up next against Ohio, Miami, and Northern
Illinois.

At the time, Ohio University had one of the best defenses in the MAC when they came to Toledo for an ESPN-televised game on October 16th. The
winds played a large role in the early stages of the game, and Toledo's passing game was a little out of sync. Toledo led just 10-5 at halftime and
the Ohio defense was playing pretty well. But adjustments were made and Toledo totally dominated the second half and won the game 31-13. The
Rockets won the first down battle 28-14, and held OU to just 230 yards of total offense. Considering OU was playing very well heading into that
game, the win was the most impressive of the five up to that point.

Weather again played a significant role in Toledo's next game at home against Central Michigan. The teams played in a steady rain throughout, and
Toledo led just 10-7 midway through the 2nd quarter despite being almost a 4 touchdown favorite. Lance Moore provided Toledo with a big spark,
retuning a punt 89 yards for a touchdown the Rockets were able to open up a 24-10 lead at halftime. But CMU did not go away. Chips quarterback
Kent Smith rallied the Central Michigan offense and they had the ball with 1:00 to play and trailing just 27-22. Toledo was able to force a Jerry
Seymour fumble and hang on for a tight 5-point win in a game they were expected to win by 20+.

The Rockets traveled to Oxford for an ESPN game with Miami for a Tuesday night matchup. Toledo was 5-0 in conference play and Miami was 4-1 at
the time. It was expected to be a tight game, and it ended up being just that, although the scoring was much lower than many people expected,
including Las Vegas. Swirling 20 MPH winds certainly play a role in the game, but both defenses played relatively well and the often-maligned
Toledo defense held Miami to just 76 yards on 40 rushing attempts, albeit in a losing effort. The game was tied heading into the 4th quarter, but
Luke Clemens scored from a yard out to give Miami the final score of the game. Turnovers hurt the Rockets in a big way -- Gradkowski only threw
one INT but the Rockets lost 3 crucial fumbles that went a long way toward decided the outcome of the game.

The road got tougher the following week when they traveled to first-place Northern Illinois, but Toledo caught a huge break when NIU running back
Garrett Wolfe was a late scratch after an ankle injury forced him out of the lineup. The Huskies still had AJ Harris in the lineup, and they didnt
seem to miss Wolfe early on because they got out to a 14-0 lead midway through the first quarter. But Toledo showed some poise and not only
rallied to win, but they won going away by a 31-17 score. The 2nd half was absolutely dominated by the Rockets, as they held NIU to just 19 yards
of total offense after halftime and only 10 first downs for the game.

The win setup a huge game against rival Bowling Green on the final week of the regular season. Despite being 7-3 at the time and having only 1
conference loss, Toledo was a home dog to their rival. The game featured two of the best offenses in the nation, as well as two of the best
quarterbacks in college football. Neither disappointed. But it looked like a blowout was in the making at halftime with Bowling Green dominating
every phase of the game in the first half and taking a 27-7 lead into the locker room. With a berth in the MAC Championship on the line, Bruce
Gradkowski rallied his offense and, just like a week earlier against NIU, they came out as seemingly a brand new team in the second half. The
Rockets scored 35 unanswered points to take a 42-27 lead late into the game. But Bowling Green wouldn't go away. Omar Jacobs threw a 6-yard
TD pass on 4th down to cut the Toledo lead to just 8. But Scooter McDougle sealed the win with some power 4th-quarter running and capped it with
a 31-yard TD run to ice the game and give Toledo a 49-41 win.

The win gave Toledo a chance to avenge their loss to Miami with a rematch in the MAC Championship game. Yet again, Toledo got off to a slow start
and allowed Miami to take a 14-7 halftime lead. Things were looking bleak at the half because late in the 2nd quarter, Gradkowski left the game
after an injury to his throwing hand and needed to have x-rays. But he turned in a gutty 2nd half performance and rallied Toledo, again, by
throwing 3 touchdowns after the break and leading the Rockets to a 35-27 win and a MAC Championship. After starting off the season with two
dismal efforts, the Rockets eventually ended up where they, and many, expected in the MAC standings -- at the top.

The win gave them a bowl bid to the Motor City Bowl in Detroit against Connecticut. The combination of a still-injured Gradkowski as well as an
inspired UConn team proved to be too much for Toledo to overcome. Gradkowski had all kinds of problems gripping the ball, and he gave way to
2nd string quarterback Marques Council in the 2nd half, but the game was already decided by then. The Huskies dominated Toledo right from the
start on their way to a 39-10 blowout win. A healthy Gradkowski would have likely made for a much different game, but with the way UConn played
that day, it might not have mattered at all because the Huskies played very, very well. The loss gave Toledo a 9-4 record to end the season.
 

gman2

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Looking at the Toledo offense

After completing 70.2% of his passes and throwing for 3518 yards and 27 touchdowns in 2004, what can quarterback Bruce Gradkowski do for an
encore? We'll find out this fall, as the 6'2 senior from Pittsburgh is back for his senior season. All indications are that his injury to his throwing
hand from late last season is completely healed, and that, of course, is bad news for opposiing MAC defenses. Even though he has put up some
huge numbers in his career at Toledo, what makes him such a special quarterback really isn't quantifiable. Saying a player has intangibles has
almost become a cliche, but it's applicable here. He's just a winner, and he is one of the toughest guys in college football. He's calm under
pressure, made big throw after big throw in 2004, and almost engineered three straight comeback wins last November to put Toledo in, and then
eventually win, the MAC Championship game. Along with Bowling Green's Omar Jacobs, he is the best QB in the conference and should have
another terrific season in 2005.

Saying Toledo is deep at running back is an understatement. They've got four guys who they could plug in as a starter and be more than capable
of scoring their 2004 average of 35 points per game. That's not to say that Toledo has 4 "star" running backs -- they don't. But what they have is
terrific depth, and four very GOOD running backs. Northern Illinois might not have the overall depth that Toledo has in the backfield, but the
Huskies have two "stars". Toledo has always done an excellent job of finding running backs suited to play in their spread offense, and this year
should be no different. Trinity Dawson, Quinton Broussard, Scooter McDougle, and Jalen Parmele all will see time, with McDougle and Broussard
likely to get the most carries. Trinity Dawson has had a solid career at Toledo, and he's a senior now, but he was injury-prone in 2004 and only
played in nine games. If he can stay healthy, he could very well see the bulk of the carries. Regardless of who gets the ball, Toledo is in good
shape in the running game.

The receiving corps loses the school's all-time leading receiver in Lance Moore, who caught 222 passes and 25 TDs in his career at Toledo, and he
was Gradkowski's favorite target in the passing game. Normally, that would be a huge blow to an offense. While his loss certainly is significant,
the Rockets have a lot of talent waiting to get a chance. Steve Odom caught 53 passes as a sophomore and he'll be the leader of the unit. Some
sophomore and redshirt freshmen could see a lot of action. The Rockets might lean a little bit on their running game in the early stages of the
season while Gradkowski finds some guys besides Odom that he can count on.

The offensive line returns three of five starters, but the two starters they lost were significant guys, especially tackle Nick Kaczur, who was an
All-MAC performer every year of his career at Toledo. Center David Odenthal is gone as well, meaning Toledo loses two key guys at two
important positions on the offensive line. If there's one thing you can count on at Toledo, it's that they'll have a solid offensive line year in and
year out, so there's good reason to believe they'll find a way to be a solid unit this fall despite the changes. John Greco was a starter in every
game as a freshmen and Chris Wakeman also returns after starting in every game as a junior.

Looking at the Toledo defense

With the way Toledo's defense started out the 2004 season, it looked like they'd be challenging Hawaii for softest defense in the nation. But the
Rockets really came on strong once conference play rolled around, and they finished 6th out of 14 MAC teams in total defense, as well as 6th in
total defense and 4th in rushing defense. Particularly impressive was how they held Miami to 76 yards on 40 carries in the regular season, then
followed it up by holding them to 58 yards on 28 carries in the MAC Championship. Northern Illinois, although they were without Garrett Wolfe,
still only rushed for 85 yards with AJ Harris in the lineup. The Rockets were vulnerable to the pass, but they did enough blitzing to take opposing
quarterbacks out of a comfort zone. Eight starters return from last year's defense, and the Rockets should have a defense that's solid enough to
complement a potentially explosive offense.

The defensive line is very young, but a lot of freshmen saw time in 2004 and that should only help put them ahead of the curve. The Rockets don't
have a single senior on their defensive front, so it's going to be up to the young guys to win the battle at the line. Sophomore Tyree Pollard had 5
tackles for loss and 3 sacks as a freshman.

While the Rockets are young up front, they're very experienced on the next line of defense. Anthony Jordan and David Thomas are back for their
senior seasons at linebacker. Jordan was 2nd on the team in tackles last year with 107, and Thomas was 3rd with 91. Junior Mike Alston led the
Toledo defense with 5 sacks last year as a sophomore.

The defensive backfield also has experience, but they've got get better as a group. There were some times last year when opposing quarterbacks
picked them apart. Patrick Body graduated, and he was the leading tackler on the team from his free safety position. Keon Jackson is now the
leader of the secondary and he's more than capable of being just that. He was in on a lot of plays last year. He broke up a lot of passes, made
some key tackles behind the line, and also led the team with three interceptions. The cornerback positions are held down by sophomore Nigel
Morris and senior Antonio Malone.

The special teams are very solid. Senior Jason Robbins is very reliable. He only attempted 10 field goals last year, but he made 9 of them. His
longest was just 40 yards though, which is perhaps a byproduct of Toledo's offense moving the ball into the red zone so effectively. Robbins has
made 25 of 33 kicks in his career. Sophomore Brett Kern averaged 40.6 yards per punt as a freshman in 2004. 12 of his 44 punts were downed
inside the 20. This might be one of the better overall kicking games in the conference. Neither is a true standout at their position, but their
reliability is what makes them a good duo.

Summary

With rival Bowling Green moving to the MAC East to balance the conference after Marshall's departure for Conference USA, the MAC West is now
Toledo's to lose. Northern Illinois will be right there with them, but the edge has to go to Toledo because of the experience at quarterback. There
are a lot of improving teams on this side of the conference, but they're still probably a year or two away from stepping up to Toledo's level. The
Rockets are definitely the class of the Western side of the conference.

The Rockets aren't without holes though. The offense will be terrific in time, but it might be a little much to expect them to be lighting up the
scoreboard early on in the season. Gradkowski knows he can count on Odom at receiver, but some guys have to step up and provide reliable 2nd
and 3rd options. The offensive line, despite two key losses, should be fine. Toledo is an offensive line factory, so it's safe to assume they'll be OK
in that department. The defense was awful at times last year, but also great at times. Toward the end of the season, it was excellent. The
Rockets rely a lot on the blitz, so they could have their moments when opposing offenses strike gold and score some points on them. But overall,
it's a unit capable of being solid if unspectacular.

The schedule, as a whole, is a joke. Their only tough game early on is at Fresno State. But before and after that, it's entirely possible that Toledo
could be 7-1 heading into a road trip to CMU and Ohio on back to back weeks in late October. The Eastern Michigan game offers some intrigue, but
it's at the Glass Bowl and, while Eastern Michigan is much improved, it's not too likely that Toledo will drop that one. The Eagles might be worth a
look as a dog if Toledo upsets Fresno the week before.

Late in the season, Toledo plays Northern Illinois at home, but with the way UT beats up on Northern Illinois (10-0 in the last 10 meetings), it
really doesn't matter where they play, Toledo seems to have the Huskies' number. The Rockets close out the season on ESPN against Bowling
Green and that could be a serious payback game for BG, so Toledo would be wise to be on top of their game heading down I-75.
 

bombercoops

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Love your MAC write-ups gman and appreciate how much time and effort you put in. Always first class and extremely helpful to everyone on the board.
 

lineguy

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Gman fell in love with your work as a first timer last year. Really profitted from some of your BIG PLAYS last year especially the Fresno State Bowl Game.

Wanted to chat more with you through email about some of the upcoming things you got coming up.my Email is XXXXXXXXXXXX
do not post email addresses on the forum:admin

Catch up with me sumtime through it

Thanks Gman2
 

Smitty

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gman... wow, thanks for the great write-ups. they are certainly appreciated.

FWIW, i really like bowling green opening the season @ wisconsin.

will you still be posting picks here during the season?
 
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