2010 playoffs

[EXTRAPOLATER]

hmmm...is it better to be gucky or lood?

still hijacked and bland, apparently.


g#3 phil-SF 4:19:13.007 est
Hamels-L/Cain
SF 51%(+104)+2
un6.5 52%(-120)-3

g#4 tex-NYY 8:07 mwt+2x
Hunter-Burnett(bye-bye Birdie)
NYY 53%(?-140)-6
ov9.5 53%(?-110)even

Again no overnights, tex-NYY, from my crook--I mean my book--but I could always ring my girl on the space station as she's taken a second job due to budgetary constraints on NASA. Don't worry...she gives me reduced juice due to the long-distance charges.

---both Hamels and Cain have had a tough time in the other's park, Hamels in 4 (1 '10) including his 6.12 era but no dingers vs in 25ip--he was also poor at home vs Aug19, though good on the road and mostly very good lately including the cg shO in #3 at Cinci; Cain's had trouble vs in 5, mostly due to the long-ball, but was pretty good in only '10 meeting back on Aug18th at home...very good at home in 16 and also very good lately, incl.#2 vs atl; both SP's a little better in night games during the season; ump Ted Barrett is even; very mild wind out to left-center at 4mph prognosticated by those weatherpeckers from Mars
---Hunter has been hit by in just 2 meetings and was so-so in his only '10 vs Sept11 (never pitched @)...so-so on the road and pretty good lately in rather short outings incl.his mediocre performance vs tb in #4...he's been a little susceptible to the HR, including lately where he's been walking nobody...Yanks rely on the HR but also on the BB so might balance out...I dunno; Burnett's been pretty good vs incl.in 2of3 '10 before a poor short outing vs Hunter on Sept11...soso at home in 14 and crapola in night games in 25...hasn't pitched since Oct.2 and he was really stinking things up all season, particularly at the end...I've noticed him to be very streaky over the years (i.e. ride when hot) and he does have great stuff--stuffed in there somewhere--so it's pretty much impossible to know what to expect and also improbable to expect a dynamite performance...he's had HR troubles lately, too; ump Angel Hernandez is even; very light wind out to right-center at 5mph expected by those others who attempt to predict the future

I see no value here. Maybe them books stole my system. Damn plagiarasties!

Maybe the rangers if and when it hits +150, which it might closer to gametime.

Fuck it--I'm making that phone call anyways.
Brother, can you paradigm?


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[DR STRANGELOVE]

love your write ups

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Thanks, Dr.
I enjoy doing 'em--helps me unwind after a hard day of slackin' off.
Let's do a brew sometime, if you're in T.O. At least by my Ten Years Gone, come February, if not before.


wed

g#5 4:07 est
NYY 63%(-172)-1
un8.5 51%(-119)-4

g#4 7:57 est
SF 55%(-113)+1
un8 52%(-120)-3


---tex(Wilson-L.sosovsin3+17(0-3)/vgin0+5old/sosoin1+3new/soso@Apr16L/pgvsAug10ndW/crapvsSept10ndW.gRin14
/erraticlately=vg#2@TBthenpgHvsnyyin#1/gin3of5tocompleteseason/mostlyshort.samedayasnight)
(Sabathia-L.sosovsin14/compr.Hvs/vgHvsApr16W.gHin16incl11-2.vgDin13.erraticlately=poor1st2Rplayoffs.NOTstrky)
...translation(from copy-and-pastage),etc:Wilson has turned out to be a very reliable SP and clearly had a good gameplan for the yanks in g#1...I still think that he could be hit--like anybody--and I wouldn't touch this total with my brother-in-law's money--I actually 'capped pre-game and then adjusted from miniscule over call to opposite after seeing the Yanks continue to suck at the plate in key situations...could change but I'm not drinking heavy juice for 9 runs...tex mid-relief still a Q so Wilson doesn't make 7 and good chance for NYY team total over or the runline; unlike Burnett, I'd say that Sabathia is totally not streaky, i.e. he can toss a crap game and then bounce back the next and look great...he's been solid at home and very good in day games...I won't shed a tear (might drink a beer) if the Yanks are eliminated but I'm expecting a good performance from C.C.; rangers have been tearing the cover off the ball this round but it should be noted that during the reggae season they were much less productive in day games than night games, unlike the Yanks (OPS:NYY .807 day, .774 night, tex .707 day, .775 night), and here we have a day game following a night game...tex, of course, also hits much better at home but they won't lose much hitting at Yankee Stadium, unlike at division foes Seat and Oak, who they see a lot; Yanks pen will clearly be utilized best way possible but if C.C. can't go 7 then NYY is likely toast and/or the over will be winna; ump. Culbreth is even; mild wind out to left at 8mph expected

gonna submit, catch my breath, and likely return


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[EXTRAPOLATER]

---phil(Blanton.nspvsin7/sosoin3@(0-1)/pgvsAug18W.nspRin13+1.pglately/poorin1ipBP@ATLOct3/vgin2&3of4prevGS)
SF(Bumgarner-L.1stvs.nspHin8(betterR).betterN.vglatelyinclg@ATLing#4.barely21)
...have a future that could sure use a phil W but sorta wish that Doc was starting on short rest--guess that leaves the big 3 for 5,6&7 but the situation will transcend dicey if phil goes down Wednesday; Blanton another non-streaky pitcher and Hendrix only knows what he'll do in this one--nothing special on the road and vs but this ain't tex or nyy he'll be facing...long layoff so might be similar to Burnett i.e. starts strong but fades mid-game and needs serious BP help, for which the phil's mid-men are certainly not a team strength (D+ on that last "sentence", being generous); 1st rounder (also) Bumgarner lacks experience and was actually better on the road in the rather small sample we've seen, but he's been very good lately and, along with the BP edge to SF, I give the home side the overall pitching edge, with a comparable hitting edge to philly...SF hit better at night during the reg season (see top) and also better at home...very tough call (go philly!) but with the home-field and (much less for) momentum I'd have to call SF if a gun were held to my head; ump.Wally Bell is an under-ump; light wind out to dead-center at 10mph expected

BTW, no Texeira accounted for, minimally, as he was 0-for-14 this round and they have several good options for the #3 spot. I'd use Cano, personally.

geez...I want a play after nothing yesterday. True story, I came very close to a couple of small props on Hunter ov3.5 K's +112 (W;5) and NYY 1st HR +106 (W)...took a nap and woke before gametime to see the lines both -whatever they'd moved to. no matter...

I'm gonna find something. Yanks score 1st if it's affordable, maybe. A Jeter, Cano or Thames TB prop might we worthwhile--my book's been lining Cano up against Young, both of whom had good games vs SP last time, though Young hasn't taken C.C. deep in 38 regular season AB's (had double in g#1), not to mention that Cano--as hot as he is--should be batting 3rd with A-Rod protection behind. phil to score 1st sounds kosher but will be pricey. phil +106 tempting in general. friggin' saw tex just pre-game at the +150 (exactly, actually) I was mentioning but didn't pull the trigger.

enough rambling

guess I won't buy me a football team


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[EXTRAPOLATER]

lately:x-y --z

hoppy on some proppy:
prop Sabathia K's ov5.5 +104 0.5/0.52
prop most TB R.Cano>N.Cruz -118 0.59/0.5
prop most TB R.Howard>A.Huff -107 0.64/0.6
prop most TB C.Utley>J.Uribe -113 1.13/1

---like most of Sabathia's numbers at home, his K/9 is better there and I figure they need him to go deep to extend this series...ump Culbreth has been good to him in 4 games, including 27K in 30ip
---both Cruz and Cano smokin' the ball lately but Cruz is 0-for-5 with 3K vs Sabathia reg.season and went 1-for-3 (single) in g#1; Cano's hit .286 (4-for-14) with a double off of Wilson and went 2-for-3 vs in g#1 with an HR...Girardi has half-a-brain and Cano should get some protection from A-Rod if batting 3rd (otherwise might be Swisher behind again)...Cruz has been batting 5th with Kinsler behind
---Howard's overall numbers a little better vs R, as expected, but still slugged .492 vs L during the season and did get two hits, including a ground-rule double, off of Sanchez in g#2--the only L starter he's faced in the playoffs...he's hitting .318 so far but only slugging .409 due to the zilch HR; Huff has hit .200 in 20 AB vs Blanton (no HR) and slugs .506 vs R...hitting .231 so far, sll singles; just like the price on someone who can go deep off of a mistake with ease
---Utley is not having a great playoff and has never seen Bumgarner but was more productive reg.season vs L than R with a .581 slugging % (not to mention OPS over 1.000) vs .381 vs R; Uribe is 1-for-11 (.091...single) vs Blanton and is hitting .095 in the playoffs (2 singles)...Uribe doesn't start (which is likely) and I McPush this one


Already have a play for #5 at AT&T but my comp. majorly needs a re-boot. Certainly, at least, a boot. Replacing very soon.

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[EXTRAPOLATER]

g#5 phil-SF
SF 51%(+108)+2
un5.5 57%(+105)+6

(in lieu of final 4, I preserve the left to conjugate that verbiage)

---see wed or thurs post re SP vs DUI, and perhaps g#1 for misleading numbers on Things to Come; ump Jeff Nelson is an under-ump...his past 2 years somewhat betray that but I've been following this (misleading?) shiite (cookie bombs) for years and have also witnessed his generosity to SP's more putrid than these last 3 NL CY's (somewhat likely L3), and you can check his previosity for historical dissonance; last word is wind out to left at 11mph but I'm still awaiting a return call from Mother what's-her-name

Got burned on the under in the first meeting, though it only reached 7 runs and that was at CitBank. If you saw it then you should remember how ump Cousins totally reneged on anything low in the strike zone, forcing the studs to adjust, which they did (Halladay 0 BB's, as per usual, and Tim passed 3)...5 of Nelson's last 6 games at AT&T have played under the total, including one in '05 before those corporate crooks bought the name (I'll be redundant all I want, thank-you). Four home runs hit in g#1 (2 vs each) and the total only hit 7...should be keeping it in the confines in this one, though I would prefer better wind word. These guys should "rebound," if that's what's required. Halladay is another non-streaky pitcher and is quite capable of gemming it after an off-outing. Lincecum has rejuvenated himself since earlier troubles and should be mojo'd whatever the #4 reveals...back-to-back CY winner beating the possible CY takeoverer twice in the playoffs should be enticing for him and his grandma. There won't be 4 HR hit in this one. Under 3 for 1st5 is a likely endeavour once availability permits and for Hendrix-sakes please gimme a Canadian spellchecker already...

un5.5 +105 2/2.1


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[EXTRAPOLATER]

1st5 phil@SF un3 -110 1.1/1


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[EXTRAPOLATER]

Philly and me sure didn't need that insurance run top of 9, for what it's Werth.:facepalm:
Dropped about a third of my playoff profits with that miscue. Actually, Huff (miscue Thurs and TB>Howard Wed) has cost me in two straight days. I'll have a puff and blow his house down.


fri g#6
nyy 55%(-108)+3
ov9 52%(-113)-2

sat g#6
PHIL 58%(-158)-4
ov7 59%(-117)+5

---ump Brian Gorman is an under-ump--rather big K-zone so this one may not drag as most AL playoff games have been doing; wind forecasted in from dead-center at a mild 8mph also weens me off the over or yanks ov4.5
---ump Tom Hallion is even; wind for CitBank forecasted out to right-center at a "medium" 14mph


I think that both series are going 7, even before catching above numbers. I think that the yanks price has already come down--slightly--and if I thought it would come down more than I would wait (what, with Hughes pukey performance in #2, you would think...), but yanks price usually goes up so I'll grab a piece now. Guess I'll make money no matter what--either the moneyline or my Rangers series play. Not touching 1st5 as it may come down to Rangers BP fudging things as Lewis is a longshot to go deep.

yankees -108 1.08/1


Thinking about Philly -1 -107 but currently distracted by prospects at the beer store which opens in about 7,200 seconds. Hard to say how that relief appearance affects Oswalt, who was dominant in g#2, and equally tough to say how Sanchez performs; overs are looking better as these playoffs continue, methinks.


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[oceanguy]

yeah was with you on under last and I don't like insurance either

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

yeah was with you on under last and I don't like insurance either

no worries...
we'll get 'em tonight
or tomorrow
or the next day


updatage:
pending:
Phillies NL pennant -126 2.52/2
Rangers series +155 1/1.55
-
17-8-4 +6.43
-
ml:1-1 -0.14 (fave:0-1 -1.14) (dogs:1-0 +1.0)
rl:1-0 +1.17 (-xxx: ) (+yyy:1-0 +1.17)
1st5:2-1 +0.99 (fave:1-0 +1.0) (dogs:1-0 +1.09) (un:0-1 -1.1)
totals:2-3-1 -2.86 (ov:2-1-1 0) (un:0-2 -2.86)
team tot:2-1-1 +0.71 (ov:same)
parlays:1-0 +1.0
props:7-2-2 +4.28
futures:1-0 +1.28 (series:same)
-
system sides:13-8 (60%+:5-0)
system totals:8-10-3 (ov:5-5-3) (un:3-5)
-

fried:
prop Jeter>Young TB +108 0.5/0.54
prop Cano>Cruz TB -130 1.04/0.8
-

sitting:
sf@PHIL ov7 -117 1.17/1
Phillies ov4 -105 1.47/1.4
-

---Young has more power at this stage but, as opposed to admonishment due to Hamilton hitting behind, I think that whatever pitcher will need to totally go after Young to avoid facing Josh with too many on; Young poor vs, in 7 reggae, while Jeter has excelled in tiny sample from pre-war years
---price came down some and Cruz experiencing hammy issues though should start; Cano should be back at #3 spot and has been smokin', though same for Cruz
---I think that Philly will need at least 4 to force a 7 and Sanchez--though retaining wicked stuff--can be a head case, as many hard-chuckers can; Oswalt is unlikely to be as dominant as in #2 and forecasted wind suggests a couple of dingers in this matchup, being at the unfriendly confines of CitBank


some early Steve Winwood, pre-Blind Faith...
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