2023 Bowls

[RBD]

New thread for bowl seasons, SOP, plus I want to get out of my regular season thread 'cuz I got killed in it at 24-36.

Below is the play #, detail of what it's based on, record, and W % on the various bowl systems I've developed over the years.
I have 16 years of data on Plays #2, #3 and #4
15 yrs on Play #5, 14 yrs on Play #6, 13 yrs on #7, and 12 yrs on 7a.

Play # 1 - eliminated due to losing record

Play #2: Has a better # in all six categories I rate, 18-11, 62%,
This year: UCF, Clemson

Play #3: Has a better # on five of six, including the two categories with the highest W%, 21-12, 63%
This year: Utah St, S 'Bama, Utah

Play #4: T/O differential of X, 18-19, 48%
No plays this year

Play #5: Second half adjustment on team total, 31-15, 67%
To Be Determined after first half of games are played

Play #6: Has a better # on all six categories AND also the better T/O #, 9-5, 64%
No plays this year

Play #7: SOS differential of X, AND better # on PD (Passing Defense), 11-5, 68%,
This year: Iowa St, Oregon

Play #7a: Play #7 AND better # on RO (Rushing Offense), 4-1, 80%,
(No plays)

Yes, I do a lot of work on bowls, not only on the spots detailed above but also 4-5 other spots, such as Wrong Favs, Ov/Un's etc.
It takes a lot of time and unfortunately I missed out on better lines on some games, and even worse - missed some key #'s, such as -7 now -9 for example.

I will add some Ov/Un spots and halftime adjustments based on Play #5 as the season moves along.

GOOD LUCK TO ALL OF YOU THIS BOWL SEASON!

Buys:
UCF (wait, opened -6, -4' now)
Clemson -7
Utah St +1
S 'Bama -16
Utah (wait)
San Jose St -9'
V Tech -7, -120
Iowa St -8'
Oregon -16

 

[boomer1]

New thread for bowl seasons, SOP, plus I want to get out of my regular season thread 'cuz I got killed in it at 24-36.

Below is the play #, detail of what it's based on, record, and W % on the various bowl systems I've developed over the years.
I have 16 years of data on Plays #2, #3 and #4
15 yrs on Play #5, 14 yrs on Play #6, 13 yrs on #7, and 12 yrs on 7a.

Play # 1 - eliminated due to losing record

Play #2: Has a better # in all six categories I rate, 18-11, 62%,
This year: UCF, Clemson

Play #3: Has a better # on five of six, including the two categories with the highest W%, 21-12, 63%
This year: Utah St, S 'Bama, Utah

Play #4: T/O differential of X, 18-19, 48%
No plays this year

Play #5: Second half adjustment on team total, 31-15, 67%
To Be Determined after first half of games are played

Play #6: Has a better # on all six categories AND also the better T/O #, 9-5, 64%
No plays this year

Play #7: SOS differential of X, AND better # on PD (Passing Defense), 11-5, 68%,
This year: Iowa St, Oregon

Play #7a: Play #7 AND better # on RO (Rushing Offense), 4-1, 80%,
(No plays)

Yes, I do a lot of work on bowls, not only on the spots detailed above but also 4-5 other spots, such as Wrong Favs, Ov/Un's etc.
It takes a lot of time and unfortunately I missed out on better lines on some games, and even worse - missed some key #'s, such as -7 now -9 for example.

I will add some Ov/Un spots and halftime adjustments based on Play #5 as the season moves along.

GOOD LUCK TO ALL OF YOU THIS BOWL SEASON!

Buys:
UCF (wait, opened -6, -4' now)
Clemson -7
Utah St +1
S 'Bama -16
Utah (wait)
San Jose St -9'
V Tech -7, -120
Iowa St -8'
Oregon -16

Thanks for sharing

 

[RBD]

Boomer, you're welcome,
and thanks for the "likes" Otro and Tcon.
Hope my Bowl formulas work better than my regular season stuff did.
I like the odds that it will.
Good luck to you all this bowl season.

I have three different ways I try to identify Wrong Favorites.
One is two years old, the other two I just started last year.
When playing against the WF's:
Play A is 10-3
Play B is 8-5
Play C is 13-5
Overall very good, but, reminder - there is always the chance that what works one year may not work the next year.

For example, Play A (the one I have two years of data on) looks great at 10-3.
But . . . it was 3-3 last year; lost juice on it.

I do a couple of subsets within these three to try and find a play with a higher winning percentage.

For example, when I get a match on a game that fits all three I get a record of 2-0.

When A and B get a match it's 3-0.

Another is when the differential I have between my dog and the line on the favorite is 10 points or > I get a 1-0 record on Play B and 3-2 on Play C, for a 4-2 record combined (all spots on Play A were < 10 pts.)

Even better, when I use 14 or more pts as my differential I get 3-0 on Play C.

I've completed all work on the first two plays, still have more to do on C but just noticed I have a diff of 15' on Wrong Fav Old Dom.
At 3-0 last year, this looks like a strong reason to make a buy on Western Kentucky, but, another reminder:
You can always find stats that support both sides of a game!

So, not so fast on that play against WF Old Dom because this spot is also a Flip-Flop Fav.
Old Dom opened as a Dog, now they're the Fav. And my numbers from last year show that teams that open as Dogs but then flip-flopped and became the Fav were 5-0 ATS (anyone has anything different let me know) and 10-1 the last two years.
So I have a 3-0 spot against a 10-1 spot.
What to do?
Fuck if I know.
Sometimes handicapping is a pain in the brain.
But still fun.

Update on early buys:
Still waiting on UCF, line still the same.
Really bad move on Clemson -7; -5 now.
Good buy on Utah St +1, they're at Pic 'em to -1 now (remember, FF Favs are a strong play as noted above. Also, I have Geo St as a WF in Play C, which was 8-5 LY.)
No change on South 'Bama.
Good buy on San Jose State - 9'; -10 now.
Good move on Oregon -16; -17' now.

Just bought Utah St at pic 'em, making it a very rare two unit play for me, based on the fact that it qualifies for THREE different spots I track with solid numbers:

Play #3: Has a better # on five of six, including the two categories with the highest W%, 21-12, 63%

FF Fav at 10-1 last two years

WF on Play B, 8-5 LY

Getting it now because I expect the line to go even higher.

Buys:
UCF (wait, opened -6, -4' now)
Clemson -7
Utah St +1
Utah St pic 'em
S 'Bama -16
Utah (wait)
San Jose St -9'
V Tech -7, -120
Iowa St -8'
Oregon -16

 

[tcon142]

Way to dial it in RBD I get into a pretty detailed bowl contest. Your information certainly helps out I appreciate it.
Thanks

 

[JOHNNYWAD119]

Thanks for sharing.

 

[RBD]

Tcon and Johnny - thanks for stopping in and good luck to you this bowl season.

Starting off - for clarification (I have so much data stuff going on I sometimes get confused myself, and I'm not sure I posted clearly) when I talk about Wrong Favorites being 8-5 in Play B for example, I'm talking about playing ON the team that I think should have opened as the favorite.

When I talk about Flip Flop Favs (teams that opened as the Dog but are now the Fav) being 5-0 ATS last year, I'm talking about playing AGAINST the original favorite who has now become the Dog.

I hope that clarifies things a bit, if not, if anyone has any questions just ask.

I see three FF Favs this year:
Ohio opened -2', now +3 (G. South)
W Kent opened -2', now +2' (Old Dom)
Toledo opened -2', now +3 (Wyoming)
If anyone has something different let me know, like I said I have a lot of stuff going on, sometimes I miss a stat.

For public record keeping purposes, and in case anyone wants to play along, I'm going to list all the teams that I see as ones that opened as WF's in each of the three different ways I use to come up with them.
As noted above these are teams that I would play against.

A: Jax St, Old Dom, V Tech, W Virg, Az, Mizoo, Aub, Wyoming

B: Jax St, N Mex St, UCLA, Tex Tech, Old Dom, Syr, UCF, Ark St, Geo St, San Jose St, Min, Louisville, Tex A&M, Clem, Mizoo, Wyoming, Mich

C: G South, UCLA, Old Dom, Syr, N Ill (more to come, I haven't completed running all games through this scenario, hope to have it done by the weekend.)

For when I have a match within the plays I have:

A&B 3-0

A&C 0-1

B&C 2-1

A, B & C 2-0

Yeah, a lot of stuff I know.
As the games are played I'll update all the stats.

Below, an update on games I bought or will be buying. One new addition since I last gave the list: UL Laf.
Plays A&B say Laf should have opened as the favorite so I'll take them and hope that last year's numbers work this year, too.
Waiting to buy, Jax is -2' with a price of -115 to -120, hoping I can get to +3 without having to pay any extra juice.

I really want to have some action on the first game of the season but...
Georgia Southern is a FF Fav (5-1 LY, 10-1 last two years)
and Ohio is a WF in Play C (13-5 LY.)
I'll have action probably but not something I'll recommend as a buy.

I'll update again Saturday morning.

Update, Saturday morning.
The extra juice on Jax St -2' is starting to drop off at some houses, does it look like La Laf is going to make it to +3, buying it now in case it's going to go to - 2.
If I add any new plays to today's card I'll post in a reply in this thread.

Update: Aaaaand late money coming on Jax St, La Laf at +3 now, I wasted some juice there.

Game just kicked off, like I said not a recommended play, I ended up going with Ohio since late money came back on them and G South barely qualifies now as a Flip-Flop Fav at -1. Going to lean more to my Wrong Fav spots then FF Favs.

Buys:
La Laf +3 -119
UCF (wait, opened -6, -4' now)
Clemson -7
Utah St +1
Utah St pic 'em
S 'Bama -16
Utah (wait)
San Jose St -9'
V Tech -7, -120
Iowa St -8'
Oregon -16

 

[RBD]

From post number one:
Play #5: Second half adjustment on team total, 31-15, 67%
To Be Determined after first half of games are played.

This spot averages three plays per bowl season, first game of the season and I already have one game that qualifies, Georgia Southern team total Un.
Waiting for the line to come out, will post the line and whether I buy it or not in this post.

First line I see is 9' -115 (Heritage sucks, lousy number and lousy price.)
I'll pass on that but waiting to see if I can get a better number.
Update: I see a 13' -170.
I would have taken Un 10', got a strong defense, got a really good running game with a conservative coach who will use that running game to work the clock down in the 4th quarter with the lead he's likely to have, but I'm not buying a bad line at 9' and I'm not laying -170 to get 13'. Don't have access to anything in the middle so no buy for me.
If anyone else sees a different number please take a minute to post it up and let me know what the number is and where you got it. I need to add some outs to play at.

Update: just saw Un 10' -120 but I can't get it, no account because it's not not available where I'm at, but that's the number I'll use to grade the play.

 

[RBD]

Recap: I got a push with La Laf +3
Record: 0-0

I'm usually pretty good at timing my buys but I screwed up with La Laf. They opened +3', dropped to +2'. I paid extra juice to get +3 thinking it would keep dropping. It's closed +3'.
So, two mistakes, didn't buy it early at +3', didn't buy it late enough at 3'. Pushed with what should have been a win by the hook. Charted as a win but a push in my bankroll.

Updated records:

Flip Flop Favs, 0-1 (betting ON the team that is now the Fav)
Two left, Old Dom, Wyoming

Wrong Favs:
A 1-0
B 2-2
C 1-1

I have one spot to play today, Old Dom is a WF in all three categories, A, B & C.
Morning start 11:30 a.m. PST.
W Kent is currently at +6'. I'm buying the Hilltoppers but monitoring the board to see if it goes to the full TD, if not I'll buy the hook (again, not something I usually do but it saved me on my first play.)

Good luck with your play today, Mallers.

Buys:
W Kentucky +7 -120
La Laf +3 -119 Push
UCF (wait, opened -6, -4' now)
Clemson -7
Utah St +1
Utah St pic 'em
S 'Bama -16
Utah (wait)
San Jose St -9'
V Tech -7, -120
Iowa St -8'
Oregon -16

 

[RBD]

Are we having fun yet?
Yes, we are.

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 1-0

There are a lot of games left but I doubt I'll get one that will be as fun to watch as yesterday's game.
I''m not going to say I knew W Kent would come back from that 28-0 deficit but I didn't change the channel in disgust, because they weren't getting whupped by a better team, it was a case of them beating themselves with turnovers, and that is a problem a team can fix. And they did.
I was sure I had the better team, and a game tying TD with 19 seconds left put me in a solid position in OT, where +7 pts is a high probability % for a W.

From post #6:
For when I have a match within the plays I have:
A&B 3-0
A&C 0-1
B&C 2-1
A, B & C 2-0

From yesterday:
Old Dom is a WF in all three categories, A, B & C.
That's 3-0 now and I have two left in the same spot as Old Dom yesterday, Mizoo and Wyoming.
I'm buying both.

Here are my updated charts:
Flip Flop Favs, 0-2 (betting ON the new Fav, one left, Wyoming; *correction, Wyoming and Mizoo)

Wrong Favs:
A 2-0
B 3-2
C 2-1

All three WF spots on the + side of the ledger.
Here's what's left:

A: V Tech, W Virg, Az, Mizoo, Aub, Wyoming

B: Syr, UCF, Ark St, Geo St, San Jose St, Min, Louisville, Tex A&M, Clem, Mizoo, Wyoming, Mich

C: Syr, Ark St, Min, Tex St, Mizoo, Aub, Wyoming

Just noticed I have a conflict - B says UCF is a WF (11-7, 61% last year and this season) but . . .
I have them in Play #2 (post #1 above): Has a better # in all six categories I rate, 18-11, 62%, This year: UCF, Clemson
I had a "wait to buy" notice on them so for now I'll remove them from the list and make a decision on Friday.

Mizoo is at -2' -115 and looks to be moving in my favor, so Ill wait to buy that one, hopefully can get +3.
*I just noticed Ohio St opened as the Fav and is now the Dog which makes Mizoo a Flip Flop Fav, 0-2 so far this year, more reason to like Ohio St.

Wyoming is -3'

Buys:
W Kentucky +7 -120 W
La Laf +3 -119 Push
Clemson -7
Utah St +1
Utah St pic 'em
S 'Bama -16
Utah (wait)
San Jose St -9'
V Tech -7, -120
Iowa St -8'
Ohio St (wait)
Oregon -16
Wyoming (wait)

 

[RBD]

Record: 1-0

Screwed up X 2 last night.
Had Syr as the Wrong Fav, in two different spots, B&C. Updated record on those was:
A 2-0
B 3-2
C 2-1

B&C combined record 5-3, so okay there.
Had one game that matched B&C, Boise St was the play and it lost, so 0-1, not okay there.

Screw up #1 was not using my play. Syr was the WF as they got blown out 45-0.
That was another W for B%C, updated chart:
A 2-0
B 4-2
C 3-1

Screw up #2 was, as Sherlock Holmes said to a clueless Watson, "You see, but you do not observe."
I saw that 'Cuse was down 31-0 at halftime but was not observant enough to realize that the score made Syracuse qualify as Play #5:

Play #5: Second half adjustment on team total, 31-15, 67%
To Be Determined after first half of games are played.

That's 67% with 16 years of data. And the second time in one night that I didn't use my play.
WTF is the sense of doing all the work if I don't use the #'s that are in my favor??!!

That play had one spot already this year, G South Un 2nd half, and I laid off because I didn't get the # I wanted.
Good move as the Over came in.
Last night I didn't get a 2nd half # Un team total on Syracuse because as I said I wasn't paying attention, but the 2nd half line was pick 'em, 23, so the team total would have been in the 11' range, and it won easily as the Orange went scoreless.
#5 is 1-1 now, hope to get at least 1-2 more.

No buys on today's game, conflicting plays.
WF Play B (4-2) says take G Tech
Play #2 (has a better # in all six categories I rate, 16 years of data, 18-11, 62%) has UCF.

I am adding N Ill for tomorrow. WF in B (4-2 ) and C (3-1); 1-1 in games where both have the same side.

Ohio St opened as the Fav, then became the Dog, and is now the Fav again. Believe it or not I have a stat on this, somewhere in my charts.
I'll post an update after I dig it up.

Buys:
W Kentucky +7 -120 W
La Laf +3 -119 Push
N Ill +3
Clemson -7
Utah St +1
Utah St pic 'em
S 'Bama -16
Utah (wait)
San Jose St -9'
V Tech -7, -120
Iowa St -8'
Ohio St (wait)
Oregon -16
Wyoming (wait)

 

[RBD]

Record: 1-0

No recap, laid off last night's game because of conflicting plays. Removing UCF from my Wait-to-Buy list was a good move as they get beat by G Tech. I was leaning towards going with the stat with the 16 year winning record over the stat with only last year charted but decided to just stay off the game. Another good move as the WF spot won.
WF Play B is now 5-2.

Here's what's left, and with a MAJOR correction - I had the wrong sides listed for ALL three plays in post number 10. (As I said, it gets confusing for me sometimes, I imagine it must be hell for anyone trying to follow.) Fortunately I listed the correct team in my buys at the end of each post.


A: Geo St, N Car, Ok, Ohio St, Maryland, Toledo

B: N Ill, Utah St, Coastal Car, B Green, USC, Ok St, Kentucky, Ohio St, Toledo, 'Bama

C: N Ill, B Green, Rice, Ohio St, Maryland, Toledo

Got a conflict with Georgia State in A and Utah St in B, going with Utah State because they fit two different plays:
WF Play B, 5-2 this season
Play #3 from Post number one, 21-12 over the last 16 years, 0-0 this season.
On the negative side they're a FF Fav, opened as a Dog now the Fav, 10-1 the last two years but 0-2 this year.

Buys:
W Kentucky +7 -120 W
La Laf +3 -119 Push
N Ill +3
Clemson -7
Utah St +1
Utah St pic 'em
S 'Bama -16
Utah -6, -115
San Jose St -9'
V Tech -7, -120
Iowa St -8'
Ohio St (wait)
Oregon -16
Wyoming (wait)

 

[RBD]

Troy second half Un 10' -120 qualifies as Play #5.
1-1 this season. No play for me.

Added two FF Favs to my chart. Utah State as mentioned above, opened +2' now -1', and A Force, opened +3, now -2'.

 

[RBD]

Record: 3-3 (one loss was a two unit play on Utah State)

I bought, or had a "wait to buy" notice, on every game in the seven formulas listed in post number one. Should have waited until I did my handicapping work on Wrong Favs, to cross reference the plays and make better informed buying decisions. For example, when I removed UCF because Georgia Tech was a WF. This is important because games that qualified for those first seven systems are 0-2 when they go head to head against a WF.
I don't see any more of the conflict this year BUT it's important to make a note of this for next year, and I added it to my charts.

Today, B Green is a WF in both B (7-3) and C (4-1). Also, Minnesota lost their last four games of the season SU. Playing against teams that have lost their last two regular season games SU is usually a profitable situation (which is a nice way of saying I can't find my f****** notes to post the record from last year) so there's another reason to take Bowling Green.

Update: Found my note on teams that lost their last two regular season games SU.
The note says they are 6-14 in their bowl game, a very nice 70% fade. But the note doesn't say if that's SU, or ATS.
It also doesn't say over how many years.
I don't have time to do any number crunching today but I'll try and get those stats added tomorrow because there are two more teams left in this spot: Louisville and UAB and it's already 1-0 this bowl season playing Against Georgia Southern.

Missed out on the best number (been doing this too much lately) opened at +6, quickly dropped to +4, +3 this morning.


Buys:
W Kentucky +7 -120 W
La Laf +3 -119 Push
N Ill +3 W
Clemson -7
Utah St +1 L
Utah St pic 'em L
S 'Bama -16 W
Utah -6, -115 L
San Jose St -9' L
B Green +3
V Tech -7 -120
Iowa St -8'
Ohio St (wait)
Oregon -16
Wyoming (wait)

 

[RBD]

Adding the next WF, Play C (4-1, B Green pending.)
Again, missed out on the best number cuz I was watching the game and not monitoring the +4 that it was at this morning. Only 5 cents extra to get the hook added, paying it as penalty for missing out on the best number AGAIN.

Buys
Rice +4

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-2
Record:
3-4 regular plays
0-1 on two unit plays

I'm putting the work in but not seeing any benefits from it. Yet.

Thanks to an early buy I have V Tech -7 in my pocket; they closed at -13 today.
Should I have grabbed the +13 for a nice middle?
V Tech is in Play #3 (it was left off the original list, along with S Jose St) which is 1-3 going into today.
This spot is 63% over 16 years so at 1-3 I think 2-3 has a better chance of coming in than 1-4 so I didn't grab the middle.

On the rest of today's card I have:
N Car and Tex A&M (WF Play A, 2-0) Added Tex A&M (based on current line)
USC and Ok St (WF Play B, 7-4 after yesterday's loss with B Green; Ok St is WF based on opening lines)
Tex A&M (WF Play C, 4-3 after yesterday's loss with B Green and Rice)
AGAINST Louis (team off two SU losses to end the regular season (1-1 this year)

Tex A&M added for both B&C, Rutgers added for C.

Ok St is a FF Fav, was the Dog, now the Fav. These are 0-3 this yearif you bet on the new Fav (G South, Old Dom, Utah St.)

No additional buys for now, will update when I get my next one.

Update/forgot to mention, I will be adding N Car (WF Play A, 2-0) currently at +5', waiting in case it goes up, worse case it drops and I get +5, not much diff with that or +5.'

Update: Grabbed the +5' as I see the hook dropping at a couple houses.

Buys:
W Kentucky +7 -120 W
La Laf +3 -119 Push
N Ill +3 W
Clemson -7
Utah St +1 L
Utah St pic 'em L
S 'Bama -16 W
Utah -6, -115 L
San Jose St -9' L
B Green +3 L
Rice L
V Tech -7 -120
N Car +5'
Iowa St -8'
Ohio St (wait)
Oregon -16
Wyoming (wait)

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-1
Record:
4-5 regular plays
0-1 on two unit plays

Split last time in, hit with V Tech, missed with N Car.

For today, I already have Iowa St, bought early at -8', good move as they're -10/10' this morning.

I have Clemson -7, a really bad early buy as they are now -3'. Also it's another conflict between my original plays and the WF stuff I've been looking at, a WF in Play B (7-4) so a play I'd likely lay off if I didn't buy it early.

I had a wait to buy on Ohio St who were a WF in A,B, and C.
Mizoo is now the Dog so Ohio St no longer qualifies as a play.

Ohio St opened as a small Fav, moved to the Dog, now back at Fav.
I only found one similar game in my notes, last year, Tex SA opened as a Fav -3, moved to the Dog +2, closed as Fav -3.
They lost SU to Troy. Because of that, no buy on Ohio St for me. May add a play later.

Adding Ore St/N Dame Ov this morning, missed a few wins in this play, hoping I'm not Johnny-Come -Lately jumpiing in today. It opened 47/46, it's at 40 right now and still dropping, a few 39' showing up this morning.

Bought Maryland this morning at +7.
They're a WF in Play A (3-4) and C (4-5) and the "Play AGAINST any team that lost their last two reg season games SU" spot, 2-1 this year.

Buys:
W Kentucky +7 -120 W
La Laf +3 -119 Push
N Ill +3 W
Utah St +1 L
Utah St pic 'em L
S 'Bama -16 W
Utah -6, -115 L
San Jose St -9' L
B Green +3 L
Rice L
V Tech -7 -120 W
N Car +5' L
Clemson -7
Ore St/N Dame Ov 40
Iowa St -8'
Maryland +7
Oregon -16
Wyoming (wait)

 

[RBD]

Oregon St Un 2nd half qualifies for #5, 1-2 this season.
I see 6' and 7', both too low for me, no buy.

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-2
Record:
5-7 regular plays
0-1 on 2 unit plays

Screwed again by another early buy that conflicted with one of the WF's I've been using.

Only bright spot on the day was three good moves:
Dropping Ohio State from my card.
Not playing the second half Un on Oregon St.
Adding Notre Dame Over to the card.

Transfer portal affecting the games, along with more players sitting out than usual. I should have (and will for next year) looked at the record of my top seven plays for the last 2 years only, when there was a transfer portal factor. The previous 14-15 years doesn't have much weight anymore.

Running out of time to finish in the black, need a good day today.

Adding Georgia game Ov, same spot as Notre Dame yesterday.

Adding Mississippi Ov, a situational spot that is 0-0 this bowl season but had a nice 17-9 regular season.

in a rare (this year) situation where an early buy help me I have Maryland +7, they're only +4' now, that's big, getting a full TD.

Had a "Wait to buy" notice on Wyoming, good thing because they were the wrong side. Toledo is the WF and all three categories, A, B, and C.
May add a play on that one later.

Buys:
W Kentucky +7 -120 W
La Laf +3 -119 Push
N Ill +3 W
Utah St +1 L
Utah St pic 'em L
S 'Bama -16 W
Utah -6, -115 L
San Jose St -9' L
B Green +3 L
Rice L
V Tech -7 -120 W
N Car +5' L
Clemson -7 L
Ore St/N Dame Ov 40 W
Iowa St -8' L
Miss/Penn St Ov 51'
Geo/Fla St Ov 45
Maryland +7
Oregon -16
Wyoming (wait)

 

[RBD]

Recap: 3-0
Record:
8-7 regular plays
0-1 on 2 unit plays

Even when I have a good day I still make a mistake. Was going to use Toledo because they fit all 3 WF plays, also Wyoming was a FF Fav, which are having a losing season. But I thought it was a later start. I was watching one of the other games when I saw an early score flash on the screen and realized I missed getting my bet in. It's been that kind of year.

I have Oregon - 16 today, another one of those early buys that I wish I hadn't made. The number has moved in my favor as they're -18 but it's from one of my original plays that I've been tracking for 16 years and the transfer portal era has not been kind to those. Same spot as Iowa State which lost.

I like the LSU game Un (correction: that should read Ov.) I like it over but, another screw up - didn't buy it earlier and I won't buy a number that's a field goal or more than what I should have gotten like today's game is.

I have a nice play on Iowa Un but doesn't that one just seem a little too obvious?

I will have a play on at least one if not both of the two playoff games, just watching the numbers and hoping they move my way.

Added: I don't like Michigan. I don't like Harbaugh. I don't have any of my situational plays that say take 'Bama but that's exactly what I'm going to do. Right now I see juice being added to the +2', so I'm waiting to see if I can get +3. I doubt I'll get it and if I don't I'll just buy the hook. Not something I usually do but did it twice already this ball season and it didn't hurt me either time.

Good luck with your plays today.

Buys:
W Kentucky +7 -120 W
La Laf +3 -119 Push
N Ill +3 W
Utah St +1 L
Utah St pic 'em L
S 'Bama -16 W
Utah -6, -115 L
San Jose St -9' L
B Green +3 L
Rice L
V Tech -7 -120 W
N Car +5' L
Clemson -7 L
Ore St/N Dame Ov 40 W
Iowa St -8' L
Miss/Penn St Ov 51' W
Geo/Fla St Ov 45 W
Maryland +7 W
Oregon -16
'Bama +3 -120