2023 Kid's ball

RBD

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Record: 0-0

Wisc GB/IPFW Un 140
Bell/Louisville Un 139
Sam H/Az St Un 136'
 

RBD

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Recap: 0-3
Record: 0-3

Wow. It only took me one day to remember why I hate college basketball.
If tonight is any indicator it's going to be a loooong season.
 

RBD

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Okay, hoping this doesn't turn into one of those "Works on paper but sucks when I post it" things.
The only play I'm focusing on this year is one method for sides and totals, instead of the usual three or more that I track. I'm hoping that focusing on just one will keep me from jumping around and missing out on winners in any one play.

So far I've got totals at 12-23; Ov 11-14, Un 1-9.

Sides I have 5-9. Here's the breakdown:
HF 2-2
HD 0-0
RF 3-3
RD 0-3
(The breakdown is one game short of the combined totals and always will be because I didn't chart one game in my log book, and don't recall which game it was.)

I'll fade all Unders and hope there's no regression to the mean until I bank a few.
Road Dogs also look like a good fade so far at 0-3.

In my first post I faded three Overs and went 0-3.
Back at it tonight, hopefully different results.

I have three games that say take the Under and one that says take the RD.
So . . .

Buys:
UMBC/St Peter's Ov 145'
UAPB/S Fla Ov 159'
Coppin St/G'town Ov 139
*Min -23

* I'm no fonder of laying such a large number than I am of taking such a large number, but the first three Favs in the spot were -16, -16' and Creighton -31 on 12/9, and they all covered. "Ride it until it bucks you."
 
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RBD

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Recap: 2-2
Record: 2-5

Review:
Minnesota and South Florida games were easy winners.
St Peter's and Coppin State games never had a chance.
After an 0-3 start I'll take a 2-2 split.

Totals now 14-24, Ov 11-14, Un 3-10
Sides 5-10
HF 2-2
HD 0-0
RF 3-3
RD 0-4

Two spots today.
N ' Bama/Charl Ov 143
Long/Milw Un 147'

Fading both.

Buys:
N 'Bama/Charl Un 143
Long/Milw Ov 147'
 

RBD

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Recap: 1-1
Record: 3-6

Review: Another split, got an easy win with Charleston. Thought I was going to bank Longwood too, was right on pace for where I needed to be with a minute left, fouls and free throws would put me Over but I lost by half a point thanks to some chucker missing both of his free throws in the final 40 seconds.

Totals now 15-25, Ov 11-15, Un 4-10
Sides 5-10
HF 2-2
HD 0-0
RF 3-3
RD 0-4

Got one spot today, UL Mon/Lamar Un145.
I'm fading.

Buys:
UL Mon/Lamar Ov 144'
 

RBD

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Okay, that was an easy one as Lamar sailed over by 25 points.
Totals now 15-26, Ov 11-15, Un 4-11
Sides 5-10
HF 2-2
HD 0-0
RF 3-3
RD 0-4

Got one today, Port/S Diego Un 152.
Like yesterday, I'm fading again.

Buys:
Port/S Diego Ov 152
 

RBD

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Gave a unit back last night but it could have been worse, when updating my chart this morning I saw that the New Mexico game should have been a Fade the Under spot, and it stayed Under so I saved a unit.

I'm going to play every game that qualifies today, what the hell it's small money anyway, I'm in the mood for some action and, hopefully, fun?

Totals now 17-26, Ov 11-15, Un 6-11
Sides 5-10
HF 2-2
HD 0-0
RF 3-3
RD 0-4

The record on Unders still seems to be worth fading, and I have three of them today.
Also have five plays on sides unfortunately none of them are Road dogs where I have the best record to Fade.

Buys:
Southern +14'
A Peay +9'
G Tech +2
UCLA +2
San Fran +3
Southern/Tulane Ov 160'
A Peay/W Kent Ov 143
Evan/Bella Un 140'
Florida A&M/Iowa Ov 152' (is Iowa basketball any better at scoring then Iowa football??? I hope so.)
 

RBD

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Recap: 5-4
Record: 9-11

Yesterday, I thought I had a 4-5 day but updating charts this morning it looks like I went 5-4. I'll double check when I get to my office tomorrow, too much going on this morning to do much 'capping. I'll confirm or correct tomorrow.

Totals now 19-28, Ov 11-16, Un 8-12
Sides 7-13
HF 3-5
HD 0-0
RF 4-3
RD 0-4

Two spots today:
Tex SA/Ore St Ov 149 (Ov 11-16)
Fla A&M +35 (RD 0-4)

Buys:
Tex SA/Ore St Un 149
*Iowa -35


*Like I said last time when I used Minnesota -23: I'm no fonder of laying such a large number than I am of taking such a large number, but the first three Favs in the spot were -16, -16' and Creighton -31 on 12/9, and they all covered. "Ride it until it bucks you."
Minnesota covered that day, so . . .
 

RBD

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Did the recheck on Saturday's play, 5-4 is correct. Had a little fun, came out slightly ahead, that's all I ask for.

Yesterday hit an easy one with Oregon State Under (by 18 points) and a close one with Iowa State, a 35 pt Fav that won by 38.

I hope I NEVER have to bet a Fav laying that many points again!!! Late in the game they were up by 33 and I was thinking, "If you bet a team who wins by 33 and yet you lose the bet - THAT would suck, BIG TIME!"
But, at 0-5, I'll keep fading that spot until the trend reverses, regardless of what the number is.

So a good weekend gets me back to .500, making up for the 0-3 start. Now let's see if I can build on it this week. Staying with the same stuff.

Totals now 19-29, Ov 11-17, Un 8-12
Sides 7-14
HF 3-5
HD 0-0
RF 4-3
RD 0-5

Today, three games qualify.
Morgan State/Campbell Ov
Murray State/Little Rock Un
East Wash/Cal Poly Ov

Fading 'em all.

Buys:
Morgan State/Campbell Un 137'
Murray State/Little Rock Ov 152
East Wash/Cal Poly Un 146'
 

RBD

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Recap: 1-2
Record: 12-13

Gave one back last night.

Totals now 21-30, Ov 12-18, Un 9-12
Sides 7-14
HF 3-5
HD 0-0
RF 4-3
RD 0-5

Six plays qualify today, I'll play five of them.

Ov: Sam/Val, Queens/Mercer, Alcorn State/Drake
Un: Virg/Memphis

Sides: Samford -8', Nicholls St +17'

Samford is a Rd Fav, the only category with a winning record so I'll lay off that one.

Or, thinking out loud here, both of the other plays that have a record have losing records, should I expect the only one with a winning record to join them? I think I'll go with that kind of thinking. What the hell, why not, I'm having fun.

Buys:
Sam/Val Un 157
Queens/Mercer Un 149'
Alcorn State/Drake Un 152
Virg/Memphis Ov 131'
Valpo +8'
Maryland -18'
 

RBD

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Recap: 2-4
Record: 14-17

After a final scoreboard check last night I went out thinking I was 3-3 break even, woke up this morning and see I lost two.
Virg/Mem was on an almost sure thing pace for the Over with just 6 minutes left, now I see a lost by a hook.
How? The usual suspects - missed FT's in the final minute, combined with the winning team going FOUR minutes w/out a score, and the team getting crushed by 20 pts chucking up 3 pt'ers that missed.
I hate college basketball.

Then there was this mistake, from yesterday's post:
"Samford is a Rd Fav, the only category with a winning record so I'll lay off Fading that one.
Or, thinking out loud here, both of the other plays that have a record have losing records, should I expect the only one with a winning record to join them? I think I'll go with that kind of thinking. What the hell, why not, I'm having fun."


Turns out I had NO fun at all. My original thinking was correct - lay off the play with a winning record as Samford won by 18 pts!!!

Totals now 23-32, Ov 13-20, Un 10-12
Sides 7-14
HF 3-5
HD 0-0
RF 5-3
RD 1-5

NEXT!

Today;
Wof/Ok St Ov
Ver/Tol Ov
Toledo -5
Jax St +26

What to do, what to do?
Overs are 13-20, a 60% Fade, buy those two?
Toledo is a HF, 3-5 on those, looks like a spot to Fade but I'm not sure if I should trust the Vermont Kanamits, TV history certainly says DON'T! (someone will get that reference?)
Jax St is a RD, 1-5 on those. Don't like laying that many with the 'Zags (1-2 ATS laying 20 or >.) Lost the last time I used this spot, but hit a few others.

Ahh, what the hell - I'm in on the whole card. College basketball is small money, not large bets, not investment size wagers like my college football unit (which is why I got my ass kicked there this year.)

GOOD LUCK TO THE 'MALLERS with whatever you decide to play today.

Buys:
Wof/Ok St Un 145
Ver/Tol Un 148'
Vermont (wait, +3' up to +5' now)
'Zags -26'
 
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RBD

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Recap: 2-2
Record: 16-19

Okay, I'm starting to get a little pissed off now.
I got Wofford Un 145. It's at 144 with just TWO SECONDS LEFT.
Ok St has possession, up by 4 pts. Game over, right?
Noooo.
Wo-fuckin-ffords HC calls a time out!,
Down by four, two seconds left and this douchenozzle calls a T/O ??!!

The TV crew sticks the overhead mic in to hear what's going on and the coach says to his little rat Terriers, "Look, we're down four points with just two seconds left. There's no chance of us winning, but we CAN fuck RBD and his Under, so go out there and commit a totally unnecessary and ridiculous foul and put Ok St on the line for a couple of free throws."
The Cowboys hit both FT's.
The game lands on 146.
I lose by one point.

And were the Basketball Gods done messing with me?
Nooo.

Against my better judgment I took the 'Zags laying 26' (from yesterday: "I don't like laying that many with the 'Zags; 1-2 ATS laying 20 or >.")
I'm up by 30 pts with just over a minute left. The Jax St Tigers will commit a couple Wofford-like ridiculous fouls and I'll get the cover right?
You know the answer.
Four missed Zag free throws in the final minute and change and they win by 24.

I'll say it again - one day they're going to find me on the living room floor, dead of a heart attack.
And if they match the time of death to what was on my TV they'll find it was a college basketball game.
I have to stop watching and just check the scoreboard at the end of the night.
Yelling at the aggravating little bastards in definitely NOT healthy for me.

NEXT!!!

Totals now 24-33, Ov 14-21, Un 10-12
Sides 10-15 (correction from yesterday)
HF 3-6
HD 0-0
RF 5-3
RD 2-5
(reminder - the record for sides will always be off by one game because I didn't properly add one to my chart and don't remember what it was.)

Two spots today:
Jax St/Ark LR Un (10-12)
Char (HF 3-6)

Lost Fadin' Ark LR Un on Monday, but I'm playing it again today. Why? The same reason I play Kid's Ball at all - I'm a glutton for punishment.

Buys:
Jax St/Ark LR Ov 141'
St. Joe's +2'
 

RBD

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Recap: 1-1
Record: 17-20

Updated charts:
Totals now 24-34, Ov 14-21, Un 10-13
Sides 10-15
HF 4-6
HD 0-0
RF 5-3
RD 2-5

Four games qualify today.
G Mason/Tulane Un (10-13)
Mid Tenn St/S Utah Un (10-13)
Tulane -4 (HF 4-6)
Chi St +24 (RD 2-5)

Tulane was in the HF spot on Sat 12/16 and they covered vs Southern, so the Fade lost, but overall, all teams, the play is 2-5 so I'll fade it.

Buys:
G Mason/Tulane Ov 156
Mid Tenn St/S Utah Ov 140
G Mason +4
Wisc -24
 

RBD

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Recap: 2-2
Record: 19-22
Another night, another split.

Nothing fits in either of the two players I've been charting but I'm going to do the "Two top 25 teams, lower ranked team at Hm, and their the dog - take the dog.

Buys:
Fla Atl +7
 

RBD

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Recap: 1-0
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A happy accident last post, used Fla Atl in the "Two top 25 teams, lower ranked team at Hm, and they're the dog - take the dog" spot, BUT . . .
Fla Atl was the RD team, not the Hm team so it really didn't qualify.

Updated charts:
Totals now 26-34, Ov 14-21, Un 12-13
Sides 11-17
HF 4-7
HD 0-0
RF 5-3
RD 2-6

Two games qualify today.
CoppIn St +31 (RD 2-6), Cal St N Ridge -3' (RF 5-3)

Good stats on RD's but Fading Coppin means buying Maryland and they are one of the two losses in this spot. Pass.
RF's are 5-3 so I'll take Cal St NR.

Buys: Cal St NR -3'
 
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RBD

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Record: 21-22

The value of keeping stats, and sub-stats. RD's were 2-6 going into last night's spot, looked like a decent Fade, but sub-stat said Maryland was 0-1 in that spot, so I laid off it. And Maryland lost again.
And RF's are the only sub-category with a winning record, so I rode Cal St N Ridge and got a W.

Updated charts:
Totals now 26-34, Ov 14-21, Un 12-13
Sides 13-17
HF 4-7
HD 0-0
RF 6-3
RD 3-6


Two spots today.
Wright St (RF, 6-3) and Mia Fla (RD 3-6)

Buys:
Wright St -7'
 

RBD

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Recap: 0-1
Record: 21-23

Three games qualified today, Fading all three.

Alabama (HF)
James Madison (HF)
Tennessee Martin (RF)

Updated charts:
Totals now 26-34, Ov 14-21, Un 12-13
Sides 14-18
HF 4-7
HD 0-0
RF 6-4
RD 3-7

Buys:
Liberty +10
Tenn Tech +3'
Tex St +12'
 

RBD

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Recap: 0-3
Record: 21-26

With football nearly over I'll stick with basketball for a while until it bores me. Small dollar plays for fun and action.

Updated charts.
Totals 26-34, Ov 14-21, Un 12-13
Sides 17-19
HF 6-8
HD 0-0
RF 7-4
RD 3-7

Lots to choose from today, suspicious though, I haven't had a total in about a week all of a sudden there's seven of them today??!!

Ov in Purdue, Iowa, Wyoming, Illinois
Un in Toledo, Harvard, Belmont

Sides N Car (RF, 7-4), Chi St (RD, 3-7), Ill (HF 6-8)

Overs are a solid 60% Fade, I should buy one of those, but don't know which. I'm going to check the record of today's teams to see if they've been in the spot before, will make a decision later after I do the work.

RD's are 3-7, but Fading it means I have to lay 22 with K-State; not in the mood today

Making two buys for the wrong reason today - because I can watch them on TV.
N Car -4' (I got -4 but -4' is the common number. Got to be fair and use lines that most bettors can get.) And Toledo/Ohio Ov 158'

Buys:
Tol/Ohio Ov 158'
N Car -4'
 
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RBD

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Thanks for stopping in Iron City, nice hit for us with UNC double digit cover.

Recap: 2-0
Record: 23-26

Haven't posted in a couple days here are the updated charts.
Totals 37-42, Ov 21-27, Un 16-15
Sides 20-20
HF 8-8
HD 0-0
RF 7-5
RD 4-7

Still a bit of an edge on Fading Overs but everything else is hovering around .500, giving me no edge to play On or Against. So I started tracking something different this week.
Small data sample after just two days but here's what my chart looks like:
6-2
Hm 5-1
Rd 1-1
Subset has "Any game with a differential of 5 or > my number is 2-0."

Means nothing of course after just two days.

With 19 spots to choose from today (typical Saturday college basketball type number) there's too many to list out and I'm definitely not playing them all, but I'll pick and choose a few spots, three HM Dogs and three spots where I have that differential of 5 or >.

Buys:
S Miss +7'
E Mich +10
USC Upstate +7
Campbell +3'
Iowa State +3
Furman +2
 
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