2023 Kid's ball

[RBD]

Recap: 4-2
Record: 27-28

Yes, I'm happy with a 4-2 day, but slightly disappointed cuz I was at 4-0 after the early games.
Also happy I dropped the plays that were hovering at .500 and looked to find something new to try.

Updated charts:
Play #1
HF 9-11
HD 0-0
RF 7-6
RD 4-7

Play #2
16-11
Hm 8-1
Rd 8-10
Subset has "Any game with a differential of 5 or > my number is 3-2."

Today's spots:
Play #1
G Tech (HF 9-11)

Play #2.
Ball St, Ind, Rich, Neb
Neb fits Hm spot, 8-1, but I don't feel like betting AGAINST Purdue today.

Buys:
Ball St +7
Ind +3'
Rich +3

 

[RBD]

Recap: 2-1
Record: 29-29

New stuff/Play #2 keeps paying off, as it goes 3-1.
I got too conservative, stayed off Neb, a 7 pt Hm Dog, won SU by 16!!!
Guess I should trust the spots more until they show otherwise as Hm spots are now 10-1.

Updated charts:
Play #1
HF 9-12
HD 0-0
RF 7-6
RD 4-7


Play #2
19-12
Hm 10-1
Rd 9-11
Subset has "Any game with a differential of 5 or > my number is 3-2."

Today's spots:

#1
Wright St (RF 7-6), Kennesaw St (HF 9-12)

#2
Purd FW, LaSalle, UNC Ash, Ind St (diff of 6), Valp

Valp is in the Hm spot, can't ignore it. There are a few +10 out there but +9' is the common # so I'll use that.

Buys:
Valparaiso +9'

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-0
Record: 30-29

Got a pleasant surprise this morning.
Scoreboard watching last night, I saw Valpo down by 11 with under a minute to play.
Final score flashes - they lose by 10. I had +10 in my pocket but was going to take a loss by a hook here because I used +9'.

Why didn't I use what I bought? Because it was at +10 at only 2-3 houses, everyone else had moved to +9'.
What is the sense of sharing plays with point spreads that most bettors cannot get?
That doesn't help anyone, it's an exercise in ego-boosting.
I see it all the time (other places, not here) - posters shaving pts off the real line just to try and look good. It's a dick move.
But . . . this morning I check my balance and see I got credited with a W.
I check the box scores, and it looks like they gave Valpo a score at the last second of the game.
Anyway, whatever, I got a win by the hook instead of a loss by the hook.
And the record for that play is now - what? Check the post above. And add a W.

Too many spots to list today, just adding the games I bought in Play #2, Hm spot.

Buys:
Tulane +8
UT Rio +7'
Central Ark +7'

 

[RBD]

Recap: 2-1
Record: 31-29

Another good night, hit two of three with Play #2 Hm spot.
Unfortunately, none of those today, but with a big card tomorrow I should have a few to use.

Updated charts:

Play #1
HF 13-13
HD 0-0
RF 8-6
RD 4-7


Play #2
26-18
Hm 13-2
Rd 13-16
Subset has "Any game with a differential of 5 or > my number is 4-3"

Play #1 has Kennesaw, HF.

Play #2 has two RD spots today, Dayton and Rice. Dayton fits subset "Any game with a differential of 5 or > my number is 4-3", slight edge there, and I do like them, but it's been a very productive week, think I'll take today off.

Back in Saturday morning, good luck with your play today.

 

[RBD]

Thanks for the upvote, athaole.

Recap: No buys yesterday. Maybe a little too conservative, had an edge on the Dayton game but stayed off it and they won SU.

Updated charts:

Play #1
HF 13-14
HD 0-0
RF 8-6
RD 4-7


Play #2
27-19
Hm 13-2
Rd 14-17
Subset has "Any game with a differential of 5 or > my number is 5-3".

I have two spots in Play #2 Hm, Georgia and Louisville.
Got 'Bama and Sam Houston in the subset with a differential of 5 or >.

Buys:
Georgia +8 (correction)
Louisville +7'
'Bama +1'
Sam Houston pk

 

[RBD]

Recap: 4-0
Record: 35-29

Anybody take a chance on one of those Play#2 Hm spots yesterday, or the subset of 5 or >?

Updated charts: (dropping some plays that are only about .500)

Play #1
RD 4-7

Play #2
33-21
Hm 15-2
Rd 18-19
Subset "Any game with a differential of 5 or > my number is 7-3".

Got one Play #2 Hm spot today, Manhattan.

Based on the current record I should play it, but I like choices and I don't have a choice today just the one game. And at 15-2 it's a good candidate for reversion toward the mean.
Usually in these situations I say "If you've been riding the streak keep going. If not, don't jump on the streak, reversion toward the mean will kill you"
I've been riding the streak but I don't know, just not feeling it today so on Sunday I'll rest.

Been tracking another play that has numbers that make it worth sharing.
Overs only, 32-51, a solid 62% Fade.
Three spots today, I'll post them in case anyone is looking for angles on these games.
Ov on Wash/Ucla, Rutgers/Mich St,
St Peter's/Manhattan.
If you're considering Unders on those games there's some additional ammo for you.

Good luck with your play today.

 

[RBD]

"Anybody take a chance on one of those Play#2 Hm spots yesterday, or the subset of 5 or >?"
No?

Recap: no buys yesterday
Record: 35-29

Played tight Friday and missed out on a W, but stayed off Play #2 Hm spot Manhattan yesterday and it lost, so overall saved some juice.
The new spot for Over Fades I gave yesterday went 2-1, so hopefully that will keep trending in the right direction and I can bank a few of those.

Updated charts

Play #1
RF 11-7
RD 4-7

Play #2
33-22
Hm 15-3
Rd 18-19
Subset "Any game with a differential of 5 or > my number is 7-3".

Overs Fade, 33-53, a solid 62% Fade.

Today's spots.
Over in GM/G Wash, Dart/Prince, Col/Yale, Gram/Fla A&M

Play #2 has Vil, NO, Fla A&M
Fla A&M is Hm and 5 or > so I'm on it.

Update: Playing too tight. Un Fade is 2-0 today, 33-55 now. Can't jump on the last two, bad mojo after passing on the first two.
I hope someone used them.

Buys:
Fla A&M +2'

 

[RBD]

Recap: 0-1
Record: 35-30


Updated charts:

Play #1
RF 11-7
RD 4-7


Play #2 (2 plays below)
36-25
Hm 16-4
Rd 20-21
Subset "Any game with a differential of 5 or > my number is 7-4".

Ov 37-58 (2-7 when the # goes up by 2 or more pts, like Miss/Kent), Un 18-23 (2 Fades below)

Buys:
Depaul +9'
Tulane +2'
Miss St/Kent Un 157'
Fla St/Mia Ov 156'

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-3
Record: 36-33

Been fine tuning plays, dropping ones that weren't of value, looking for new ones.
Doing well with finding "Wrong Dogs" so I'm jumping back in and sharing them here.
Hoping its not going to be one of those "Doing great in pocket but turned to shite when I started posting" things.
(And hope I didn't just jinx myself by saying that. Should probably delete it but I'm not going to be a slave to superstitions!)

I don't like the Rice game but it qualifies as a play, hits the correct parameters, so I'm on it. It's a 21-13, 63% spot, also has Bucknell and Murray St.

Cle St and Loy-Chi are in a 3-0 subset of a 9-3, 75% new play. Not a lot of data at just 12 games charted but given the choice between jumping on a streak that's already established and hoping it continues, as opposed to trying to identify a new one and getting in on it early, I'll take a chance on identifying a new play every time.

ND/Duke - I have one situational play that says take the Un (27-19) and another that says Over (14-9), but ND is 0-2 in the 27-19 spot, so . . .

Buys:
Bucknell +1'
Murray St +2'
Clev St +3' (I got +4 this morning in case anyone wants to play the # I got; will use 3' for record here.)
Loyola Chi +4
Rice +7
ND/Duke Ov 134

 

[RBD]

Recap: 3-3
Record: 39-36

Last time in I hit my three early games (I think all three Wrong Dogs won straight up if I remember correctly), just needed one of three late games to get a profit on the day, but...no.

Notre Dame went NINE minutes without scoring a single point in the first half, killing any chance of hitting the Over in that one.

Rice got blown out, qualifying my concern from the post ("I don't like the Rice game but it qualifies as a play, hits the correct parameters, so I'm on it.")

Profit or loss for the day came down to Murray State +2'.
They had the lead SU in the final minute but blew it thanks to missing free throws. I still had the cover by a hook with ONE SECOND left in the game but Murray State committed a foul, and . . .

I bought three today.
All three are teams that fit my parameters for one of the three different Wrong Dog spots I'm using this year.
Listed below are the teams I bought and the records of the play.

The Nicholls State play has a losing record but it's 1-1 on home teams and though Nichols State hasn't appeared in the spot yet this season their opponent has and they lost so I bought it.

Kansas and Texas Southern fit the same situation, hitting at a decent 61%, but they also fit a subcategory based on the number I have them favored by being more than five points which comes in at 17-9.

Buys
Nicholls State +3 (3-6)
Texas Southern +2 (19-12)
Kansas +3 (19-12)

 

[RBD]

Recap: 1-2
Record: 40-38

Treading water, underwater actually with juice.

Buys:
Chat +2'
Northwestern +2
N Tex +2'