Part 2
Part 2
Now it's time to get down to making some money. My second part has views on ENGLAND, although to be truthful I could write my thoughts on most nations taking part.
I will refrain from that, although I posted some initial plays in "World cup wagers" before reading this thread, so if I've stepped on anyones toes, I'm sorry. I will refrain my comments until all postings have been made, but I must urge participants to complete as soon as possible because the tournament starts Sunday morning UK time, so that Sunday night in southern hemisphere and the early hours of Sunday morning in North America. Clearly, we may need a day or two, due to time differences to offer views etc.
There is a strong trend in South Africa, stronger than anyway else in the world of top nations who play cricket. You must bat first. The wickets favour bowlers whose deliveries skid off the track, note Pollock from South Africa has reduced his pace when he play's at home. The ball bounces lower as the innings progress, and the moisture in the atmosphere early evening certainly effects the playing of the wicket. Newlands in Cape Town is the worst of them all. So tip number one:
Note any game played at Newlands, back the team who bats first to win. This has an 76 % win rate. However, I would only play this when two countries from the top eight in the world play each other.
Lets start my second write up on my home nation,
ENGLAND
England find themselves in the harder of the two pools. The pools were decided on world rankings of eighteen months ago, why?, I don't know. Back then England were seeded eight in the world, where as now they are number four in the official rankings. In fact Pool"A" has the number 1,3,4,and 6 ranked teams compared with Pool"B's" 2,5,7,and 8.
Englands chances of progressing to the second stage depends on beating either Pakistan or India. The game against Zimbabwe I feel from news leaking out of the E.C.B. is that it will not take place. I make England 11/10 chances to beat either Pakistan or India. However, as in the past, batting first will be to Englands advantage. In recent times they have thrown games away from winning positions, most recently against Australia at Hobart. If on the day of these games England win the toss and bat first then I would make them favourites to win.
As I mentioned in a previous post, in order to win the top batsman market, you must get as many innings as possible. with minows in each group the better sides will not lose too many wickets, so looking at batsman who bat at six and below must be crossed of lists.
England find themselves with a solid looking top six. Knight, Trescothick, Vaughan, Hussain, Collingwood and Stewart. The remaining line up will be, Flintoff, Perm any two from three of White, Blackwell and Giles, then Caddick at ten and Anderson the "rabbit".
The opening pair of Knight and Trescothick have won many a game in recent years leading from the front. Both hit the ball hard all around the wicket. Tresco's performances in Australia lacked confidence, where as Knight had some solid performances and looked a player in good nick earlier. Towards the end of that VB Series those performances by Knight were becoming a distant memory and it was Trescothick who appeared to be finding a little form. With the break between that series and the World Cup I feel that Trescothick will score more runs than his partner Knight. Enter Vaughan, without doubt the best batsman in the world of cricket at the present time. He's that good, he gained the respect of all the Aussies and taking Hayden to one side from their team he would play in front of any of the others. The facts and statistics in the last eighteen months bourne this out. His patience and stroke play is world class and his real strength is picking up the length and playing each ball on merit. Although a stroke maker he's not in the mould of a gun-slinger.
The remainder of Englands batting is much of a much, Hussain scores to slowly for one-day cricket, Collingwood is starting out in World cricket, Stewart has his moments and is steady, Flintoff plays a calypso innings or fails, no in between here. One thing they have in common is they all know how to let an innings collapse.
So my plays / recomendations for top batsman would be to play Vaughan each way in the tournament outrights (25/1) if you feel England can progress to the super six stage or play more conservatively and play top nation (england) batsman and take 3/1 with Ladbrokes. As a saver Trescothick at 3/1 bet365. For those who prefer the more speculative wager could do far worse than look at Collingwood at 16/1 with sporting odds.
The three front line bowlers here will be Caddick, Anderson and Flintoff. The other two bowling spots will be made up of White or Giles or Blackwell. On the plus side England can turn to both Vaughan and Collingwood if needed.
Caddick, after a lack lusture start to the Ashes tour really started to find his range in the last month. He is a confidence bowler and his stock delivery is just back of a length. I don't think that England can take chances with resting key players, so both Caddick and his opening partner Anderson will bowl most of their quota of overs. Flintoff, White and Giles have all returned from injury, so match play will be short in supply here. Blackwell showed he has more use with the ball than the bat in his recent performances. He's able to bowl in the middle part of the innings and his economy rate is pretty good. However, wickets is the name of the game in the top bowler market so as with the batsman, I feel it's foolish to dabble in the tournament market, so I will stay with top England bowler. Caddick will bowl six, seven overs at the start of the innings but it's his last remaining overs at the end of the innings he appears to achieve most of his success. I expect Flintoff to be bowling the remaining overs from the other end. So my main bet / recomendation is Caddick at 11/4 with Ladbrokes and Paddy Power with a saver on Flintoff at 8/1 with sporting odds.
on here it might be easier to share some of the effort. 