Preview & plays:
For once the Crosby weather seems to be absent this week. For a tournament that was cancelled outright five years ago, had the 3rd round completed six months later three years, was reduced to 54 holes two years and was completed on the Monday last year, it must be a huge relief to the organizers and the players if the weathermen are correct and it is not Puddle Beach on view this week. It may cast a shadow over the course form stats that such extreme weather conditions have been prevalent, but this an unusual event. Three days of pro-am golf on three different courses, followed by (hopefully!) a return to Pebble Beach on Sunday. The form of 'giggle golf' does not lend itself to predictable winners even in the absence of weather chaos.
This week also marks a return to the scene of Tiger's humiliation of his compatriots last June. Weather and course conditions may be very different this week, but the specter of that event will hang over every player this week. It will even do so over Tiger, for his fallibility has been all too evident in the past three months and that US Open was the pinnacle of his domination of world golf. He won twice at Pebble Beach last year, but his poor performances in 1998 and 1999 in pro-am golf and his current form leave no value in odds which are no longer odds-on.
The courses used are Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill and Poppy Hills, which Pebble Beach playing the hardest of the three. In recent years it has played 0.5 shots harder than the other two, but Poppy Hills marginally the easiest of the three, but with weather conditions expected to be less extreme, this may render these course comparisons useless. Often described as the most spectacular golf course in the world, Pebble Beach will more than make up for the 'celebrity' distractions this week.
The three outright plays this week are David Duval, Davis Love and Justin Leonard, all each-way plays paid on the first five places. Until last year when he come off a tough time with fans in Phoenix, Duval had a very record in this event: 15th in 1999, 2nd in 1997 and 2nd in 1995. By progression, he does look good this year! His missed cut last week, like some many of the big names, can be downplayed with his first use of the Nike irons, it will be better this week and as with his performances in the Bob Hope, he can settle in this format whatever the weather. Expect a bounce-back this week.
Davis Love did threaten at times last week, but when Calc had such a large lead and the rounds were not being finished on time, it is easy to explain Love's poor finish. Like Mickelson, he is not the most motivated of players when not in contention. It can in part help to understand his relatively poor performances in this event in its disrupted history, but he has still finished in the top-25 in four of the last five stagings, including 3rd in the undisrupted 1995 event, so he is not unsuited to the pro-am format. Good odds for someone who has finished in the top-5 in over a quarter of all events he has played in the past 3 years.
Justin Leonard did miss the cut by a stroke last week as a selection, but he still looks in good form and his stats can hardly be faulted either. This season he has hit 76% of fairways and 82% of greens in regulation on the PGA Tour. He has also shown an aptitude for pro-am golf and this course. He was 16th at last year's US Open, and in this event he was 4th two years ago and 15th last year despite having playing the hardest course in the worst of the weather: Pebble Beach in the first round. Like Duval, I expect a strong bounce-back.
Outright plays:
David Duval to win 16/1 e.w. @
Victor Chandler
Davis Love to win 28/1 e.w. @
First Stake
Justin Leonard to win 40/1 e.w. @
First Stake
72-hole plays:
Andrew Magee to beat John Daly -111 @
First Stake [2 units]
One top-10 does not signify a change of form and especially when it's a week when patience with your playing partners is essential. Daly is not a regular pro-am golfer and has avoided this tournament for a few years; can't see him making it until Sunday
Hal Sutton to beat Steve Elkington -111 @
First Stake [2 units]
A case of survival of the fittest! Sutton does not have a good record in this event, but nor does he in wet weather so the two may be related. Has shown glimpses of a return to form, though not over 72-holes, yet still much better than Elkington's only appearance so far this year - virtually last at the Tucson Open
Kirk Triplett to beat Grant Waite -120 @
Carib
Both come off missed cuts and not very impressive past performances in this event, but Triplett does appear to be playing much the better golf of the two - he has hit 80% of greens in regulation so far this year compared to Waite's 70% and gets the nod in accordance
DTB, Opposing Triplett and Magee? Yikes! I'm in trouble