Accenture Match Play

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lostinamerica

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I?ll do my duty and try again at starting a thread . . .

On Sunday morning I played Weir(28/1) for 0.30* e.w. (Top 2 @ ?) and another 0.20* (To Win) @ Bet365 and was thinking it would be my only outright wager in the Accenture Match Play. Weir?s win on Sunday probably invalidates by at least one additional play that selective strategy on my part, and also leaves me with an investment I would not have made for that amount if I had known he wouldn?t be willing to wait another week. And since it worked for me with Olazabal last year, I jumped in on Friday and made a play on Weir(66/1) for 0.40* e.w. @ Bet365 for The Masters.

Now I?ll go check out the tentative brackets posted under the golf section at the ESPN web site.
---------- ---------- ----------

YTD:
Outrights: 11-38 (-1.58*)
Matchups: 8-9 (-2.67*)
3 Balls & Groups & Parlays & Hedges: 6-9 (+2.71*)

I keep track of my plays based on posted units and with a separate category for any of the more exotic matchups.

I?m in the hole and now I'm due for a slump.

GL
 
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steved

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I will join in lostinamerica...
0.5 ew Leaney...150 (Tote)...I am wondering if we are about to see a better Leaney than before, one that can finally realise his aim of a PGA Tour card...accurate player, now hitting it further...
 
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lostinamerica

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bettingmad

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Previous results...

http://www.europeantour.com/Tournaments/fullreport.sps?iTourNo=2003009&id=1076157

Estes and Allenby both 66/1 at Bet365 are my two hopefuls.

Steved,
Leaney plays Estes in round 1.... so may the best man win.... unless Leaney is best.... then we'll just have to have the luckiest instead!

Ian,
Do you just mean 20/1 Faxon as in 1/4 of 80/1 or have you found 20/1 in some books actual quarter betting?
 
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Myron

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Betting on 2 - David Toms e/w at 48-1 and Shigeki Maruyama e/w at 60-1.

Maruyama for some reason always does well in these match play tournaments.
 
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rio

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Go with last years pick Fasth outright - fancy him for a shock tomorrow.

Can see Monty being sent packin by Cejka and any 5/2+ A Hansen taking care of Toms is worth a little look.

Casey and Rose could well take care of DL3 & Duval.

Nice to see Olly/ Leonard and Mick/ Karlsson renewing acquaintances.

Good Luck all.
 
DOGS THAT BARK

DOGS THAT BARK

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I agree Stan, Ben Hogan looks weak along with Snead. I have been toying with idea of letting odds dictate choices such as Sutherland and Verplank @ 25/1 and 30/1 and counter with opposing each in matches @ 5 times place bet. The only way you could have modest loss is for each to go to last event before semi finals and each lose that event.--and with Murph lurking I can see that happening.:)
Might wait till 2nd rd and see what the odds dictate.Wish D Clarke was about 20/1,might take shot in 3 brackets.
________________________________________________
Any guesses on what odds of 30/1 and 25/1 would be reduced to after if winning in 1st rd?
Or one could pass on opposing 1st rd and take chance as risk on place wager would be minimal?
 
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DOGS THAT BARK

DOGS THAT BARK

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Will take a look at this process.Stan if you don't want to use these in yearly totals it is fine by me as they will be varying
$ wagers and not units and will result in wagers countering others.
Will start with place wagers while at their highest return an not oppose in match 1st rd. Will play from these.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Feb 25 5:17pm Golf - Pending 10.00 to win 250.00
1. Golf - WGC Accenture Match Play Feb 26 - March 2, 2003
Odds to Make the Semi Finals
Odds to Make the Semi Finals
Scott Verplank (+2500) [pending]

Feb 25 5:18pm Golf - Pending 10.00 to win 150.00
1. Golf - WGC Accenture Match Play Feb 26 - March 2, 2003
Odds to Make the Semi Finals
Odds to Make the Semi Finals
Darren Clarke (+1500) [pending]

Feb 25 5:18pm Golf - Pending 10.00 to win 300.00
1. Golf - WGC Accenture Match Play Feb 26 - March 2, 2003
Odds to Make the Semi Finals
Odds to Make the Semi Finals
Kevin Sutherland (+3000) [pending]
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
2nd rd
Two still in, only needed the one to quarantee profit via hedges.Will take smallest hedge possible of $1 profit and try and max outright profit if fortunate enough to get there.Will let Clarke ride another rd for free. Will play for 2nd rd

Feb 27 3:17am Golf - Pending 40.30 to win 31.00
1. Golf - WGC Accenture Match Play Feb 26 - March 2, 2003
Ben Hogan Bracket Matchups
Kevin Sutherland vs Justin Rose
Justin Rose (-130) [pending
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Rd 3 Both still hanging.Made blatant error yesterday as could have took Rose @ -110 @ $plays but was going to try and keep all at same book,however Olys 30 cent line(20 cent variable in yesterdays line) prohibit it as small variations make big differences on bottom line.Currently profit will be between $1 and $136.25 depending on outcome today,as will do full hedge tomorrow if any are fortunate to advance.
Todays wagers
Scott -105 over Sutherland $43 to win $41 @$plays
Furyk -115 over Clarke $34.50 to win $30 @ WSEX
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
rd 4 Clarke advances now decisions to be made.
could continue the final hedge and take Lonard at 5dimes @ +105 for quaranteed smaller profit or get greedy and let Clarke ride. Considering there is now $63.50 invested to earn $160
($150 +return of $10 wager) which equates to Clarke at a little over +150 odds vs Lonard and he is currently -130 most places, there is little consideration but to let it ride.
Regardless of outcome this little experiment has proven one thing,it is foolish to play anticipated hedges throughout regardless of quaranteed profit as I would much rather be where I was at the beginning with $30 riding on potenial return of $160
:)
With that being said i do think Lonard has good shot to win for the simple reason of if there is one person in this field Tiger does not want to play it is Clarke and Tiger usually gets what Tiger wants.
 
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warner

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was able to attend tourny last week and had a great time was second tourny for me this year and weir won both also did well as i won 290 so up 1022 for the year.This is probably not a good week for golf wagering but im going to go with 1st round
d clarke 0 t clarke 155/100
faxon 0 parry 135/100
cabrera 0 verplank 125/100
garcia 0 sutherland 150/100
fasth 0 howell 100/125
 
S

Shadetree

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My picks:

Haas +161 Goosen [Pinnacle]

Factoring in Haas' recent strong play and the fact that he is a streaky player, I give Goosen only about a half stroke edge (per round), which makes +161 more than enough. One caveat is Haas' lack of birdie power in a match play event, but I'm willing to accept that at these odds.


Hoch +120 Lehman [Pinnacle]

I rate these players as about even for this event, so am taking the +120. Hoch, one of the streakiest players on tour, was mediocre last week in his first event of the year. He has historically performed quite poorly after long layoffs, so I am less concerned about last week than I might otherwise be with a player so affected by momentum. Lehman played very well in a stroke play event at this course in 1997 (2nd place, Mercedes) while Hoch only posted a 24th and 19th at the same reduced-field event in 1997 and 1998. On the other hand, Lehman ranked just 177th in birdies/round last year (vs. a scoring average rank of 101st) -- a trend that should hurt his chances in match play. Overall, this is a value play on Hoch, who is generally better than Lehman and even considering some specific factors working against him this week, should play well enough to make this match a coin flip.


Sutherland +125 Garcia [Pinnacle]

This is more of an anti-Garcia play than a pro-Sutherland play. Sergio is streaky and is playing very poorly at the moment. In addition, he is playing in back-to-back weeks, which historically has been very tough on Garcia (scoring an average of 0.33 strokes/round worse than his norm when playing unrested, based on 52 unrested events from 1997-present). He also scores few birdies relative to his skill level, which should hurt his cause in match play. I would actually prefer it if Garcia was matched against anyone other than Sutherland, since I don't value Kevin's victory at this event last year nearly as much as the public probably does. Nevertheless, Sutherland is match play tested and I rate him as a half-stroke better than his opponent this week.
 
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lostinamerica

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OUTRIGHTS:

Weir(28/1) for O.40* e.w. (Top 2 @ ?) and for 0.20* (To Win) @ Bet365

Rose(21/1) for 0.20* (Top 4) @ Olympic


MATCHUPS for 1*:

(A) Lehman(-128) over Hoch @ 5dimes

(B) Lowery(+100) over Beem @ Bet365

(C) PARLAY Woods(-400) over Pettersson WITH Weir(-175) over Roberts WITH Els(-320) over Tataurangi @ 1.58/1 @ 5dimes

(D) Sutherland(+120) over Garcia @ Bet365

(E) PARLAY Rose(+100) over Duval WITH Fasth(+135) over Howell @ 3.7/1 @ Bet 365

RAMBLE ON . . .
Last year in this event I did well off the start by committing myself to only a single match on each of the first two days, although I gave it all back before the event was over. While I?m leery of a slump and these real and dynamic matches are tailor made to knock the stuffing out of the players and the punters, it?s also the case that playing the fictitious 18 hole matchups offered every week is also a minefield to be avoided when it's not working, and I won?t ease off just yet since it doesn?t feel like I?m struggling to recognize solid opportunities when I see them . . . Weir was previously posted and prematurely played . . . A big concern with Rose in this event is his real penchant for taking his time off the start before hitting his best stride, but I?ll be there so long as they keep offering juicy prices on Rose in America . . . It is the consensus of the players that it is a long hitters course this time out, and FWIW they have gone and switched the front nine and back nine this week after decades of playing it the other way on tour . . . Cheers to having a prestigious and anticipated match play event between the best players finally take root and for the madness it is sure to produce as soon as it starts . . .

GL
 
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Ice Picks

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DOGS RULE...

DOGS RULE...

or do they????


Last year I made a lot of money playing the DOGS in ALL OF THE MATCHES in this event - beginning to end. The odds were such that I only needed to have about 30% of the dogs win to break even. Thsy did much better - and the 47th [?] seed ended up winning as Kevin Sutherland came from nowhere to post an unlikely victory.

I DO NOT THINK THIS IS THE WAY TO PLAY THIS YEARS EVENT.

This course is extremely long and much tougher than last year. It will favor the long hitters, and those that can get it up and down when they miss the green.

I will post some plays later - but on form, you would have to look at ELS, and of course, TIGER. WEIR is in top form right now, but not a long hitter.

Sutherland is a GO AGAINST in the first match. He shot his wad last year - and has done nothing since. TIGER really wants this one - and he is tough to go against - but the odds are too steep.

Back later...IP:)
 
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