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DOGS THAT BARK

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Outright: Gil Morgan 20/1 @Surrey e/w 1 unit total
No consideration for his great past history here as I believe this is a virgin course.Going solely on his record of 12 top 5's in 24 events last year @ 20/1 odds and break even odds (discounting wins)of 16/1 per event in 2001.
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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Bmad They are based on top 5 finishes which is what I had Stan run for me at conclusion of 2001. Which was error on my part,however I counted wins the same as place (1/4 odds) so would consider (break even odds) skewed on low side if any despite top 5 vs top 4 format I calculated.

ie: place odds would have to be 4/1 to recoup win portion and place portion if placing in 1/2 his events if you disregarded wins.

five lowest ratio's in 2001 were
Lietzke 13.3
Irwin 14.85
Doyle 16
Morgan 16
Fleisher 20.6

These should be skewed heavily on low side as all were multiple winners of which there were 10 last year.

Another flaw was that on a few players I tabbed results on all tours,not just Senior tour.
 
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Clive

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DTB

One thing to factor on this tour is that virtually all players are deteriorating, and it gets harder to perform at the same level each year as the youngsters come aboard. Two years ago Morgan would have been no greater than 4/1 for every event he entered. My belief is that the price available now is simply a correct reflection of his chances....
Unlike the following gentlemen!!!

Jay Overton 100/1 - comes through Monday qualifying again...living the club pro dream...you could argue he is the form player at the moment

Walter Hall 80/1 - are you sure? That can't be the same Walter who was joint leader for a while last week can it? Time for a new category there Stan, players who led or shared the lead during the final round but finished out of the places...Hall and Tewell did it for me last week.

Dana Quigley 66/1 - you know, people actually get paid for compiling these odds...are they watching the same game!

All Stan James, all 1/5 first five.

Lots of others to consider, and none of them should be below 20/1...this tour is too competitive until McNulty arrives, although Purtzer could be the most likely of the shorties to dominate...he was impressive last week.

Bobby Wadkins shouldn't be 40/1...and should Zoeller be four times the price of Purtzer...couldn't have predicted that a week ago.

Some great value to be had again....would you rather bet here or pile on Woods at 3/1!!??
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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Very good point on age Clive. Tried to look into reduction of scoring ave of just basically the top guns during winter break during each sequentual year from 50 on and could come up with no common denominator.However as you noted when you reach these ages just one year can have huge impact especially with variances in health conditions,noteably Trevino in years past.I don't know if it was due to younger guns coming on the scene or if he lost desired but he dropped off charts overnite never to return.Using a couple examples of Morgan and Nelson.While eachs ave declined from 2000 to 2001 Morgan still continued to lead tour in scoring ave both years while Nelson declined from 2nd to 6th yet won more tourneys than any. Whether this tracking will pay off is yet to be seen but it has been interesting.
I don't think anything can compare to just watching them and noting changes from a knowledgeble viewers insight thus I put more emphasis on you Euro mates (who have been doing this for years) takes than I do on #s. It sure does make challenging entertainment.:)
 

Stanley

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Outright plays

Outright plays

Tom Purtzer to win 10/1 e.w. @ Surrey
Impressive 7th place last week on his Senior debut. Playing on this Tour could easily re-ignite his enthusiasm for the game - making 3 of 16 cuts on the PGA Tour last year can be demoralizing - and on a course on which none of this week's field have experience (bar the Father/Son event), he will be at less of a disadvantage this week.

Doug Tewell to win 33/1 e.w. @ Surrey
Came very close last week to securing a top-5 position until two last bogeys, so will gladly retain him at 33/1 when so many are quoted at single figures.

Dana Quigley to win 66/1 e.w. @ Stan James [5 places option]
Like Tewell, Quigley looked destined for a top-5 finish until late bogeys wrecked his chances in last week's shortened event. Already 4th in the first event of the year and with a good record in this event (6th and 2nd in the last two years) albeit on a different course, he represents value at this price.
 

Stanley

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54-hole plays

54-hole plays

Tom Purtzer to beat Tom Watson -102 @ Five Dimes
Rare to see Watson compete in three straight Senior events. He's been impressive so far, but so has Purtzer and will back him again at this price.

Hale Irwin to beat Bruce Lietzke -102 @ Five Dimes
Both finished mid-table in the season-opening MasterCard Championship and missed last week's event, but Irwin was particularly impressive when setting a new earnings record in the Senior Skins two weeks ago. Maybe he's not too old yet and like the Purtzer play, will back him at this price.

Walter Hall to beat Dick Mast -105 @ Five Dimes
Can't understand why Mast is the favorite here. He has yet to record a top-5 on the Senior Tour and was 12th last week. Hall finished ahead of him in 7th place, was 5th in the MasterCard Championship, won the Canada Senior Open last year and has finished 7th, 2nd, 17th in this event, albeit on a different course, in the last three years.
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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72 hole
Hall -105 over Mast
Fleisher +105 over Kite

Agree with Stan on Hall,appears they have lines reversed to me.
Taking Fleisher on a whim. Would give Kite the slightest of edges but can't remember last time I saw Fleisher +105 against anyone.
 

bettingmad

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DTB,
Still struggling to try and understand your break even points.

Taking Gil Morgan's 12 top 5's in 24 events.
Ignoring his wins.

Assuming like Stan says you get first 5 places and I also assume this is 1/4 the odds.

For a 1 unit each way on all the 24 events the outlay is 48 units.
To break even you need to return those 48 units.
So if he was placed 12 times you need to return 4 units per place.

4 units on a place is 3/1 which = 12/1 at 1/4 the odds.

So isn't his break even price 12/1 ? And this is still low as we have ignored any wins....
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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You are correct.I errantly was deducting stake of place bets that won.Thank you for heads up. Would I be correct in assuming I could take all my current figures and multiply them by .75 and fix the matter?
 

Stanley

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No. You simply subtract 4 from each of your current break-even odds.

The confusion arises from the return of the stake and the difference between fractional and decimal odds.

So I assume DTB has been calculating the break-even place odds for Gil Morgan as such:

units * (events/places) = place odds

Assuming two units are places on the each-way bet, for Gil Morgan:

2 * (24/12) = 4

This is the correct break-even place odds, but the 4 refers to decimal odds not fractional odds. In other words, 4.0 (or 3/1) and not 4/1. Hence the correct break-even outrights odds are (3/1)*4 = 12/1 not 16/1 as bettingmad says.


As another example, if you have Irwin at 14.85, then you must have calculated Irwin's place odds to be 3.7125 (14.85/4) which is correct in decimal format, but not in fractional format (ie. 3.7125/1).

So therefore the correct break-even outright odds for Irwin are (2.7125/1)*4 = 10.85/1 and not 14.85/1. In other words, a reduction of 4 points.


The difference of 4 arises because there is a difference of 1 between the decimal odds and the fractional odds (e.g. 5.0 = 4/1) and then you are multiplying this difference by 4 because the place odds are 1/4 the full outright odds.
 
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Clive

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If I can interject with my own formula, gentlemen.

For senior betting....
ignore all players that have ever won a major on the regular tour
ignore all players under 10/1
do your research
take your average pga tour bet, multiply by five, and lump on....
I believe that can be expressed in the following terms;

x=1m<10+(p*5)=??????, or $$$$$ of course!
 

Stanley

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Final update

Final update

Matchups: 1-2-0; -1.07 units

Purtzer/Watson LOST by 7
Irwin/Lietzke WON by 8
Hall/Mast LOST by 3

Outrights: 1-2; -0.13 units

Purtzer 12th
Tewell 19th
Quigley 5th

Disappointing to have a losing event. Could have been quite different had Quigley not bogeyed the last. Instead of sole 5th place, he had to share with two others

Senior PGA Tour ytd
Matchups: 3-2; +2.93 units
Outrights: 2-7; -1.25 units
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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finals 1-2
Fleischer/Kite win
Hall/Mast loss
Hall/Mast 1st rd loss

outrights 1-1 Doyle 5th Morgan 8th

Need help from the e/w on figuring units. I bet $10 E/W for total of $20 on Doyle and Surreys return says $16.67. So I assume as with most place wagers I happen to hit there I lose money on it also. Right?

Matches week 1-2 /-1.12 units ytd 2-4 /-2.27 units

Outrights week - 1.17 ytd - 3.17
 
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