It's that time of the year again fellas where we attempt to make some $$ and hope that our team sees the september action. I can't believe how quick the next season rolls around but I'm happy about it. The gabba seems to be sold out this week and for the next 2 games against sydney and west coast, so it looks like a melbourne trip may be calling sooner than expected. Pawa, christo, are we right for our wager that which ever of our teams finishes higher on the ladder recieves some team wear from the other two?? Percentage included if it comes down to it. You guys happy with that? Should be a good battle as all three look like they're on about the same level at the moment. Bris/saints should be a cracker to open up the season- can't wait!
AFL: Round 1
- Thread starter bombercoops
- Start date
Just waiting for some odds now, bomber.
Not sure how 'accurate' the betfair odds are, but definately like the look of one or two games early....Two actually!
Very tough to pick a winner of Thursday night's opener...Brisbane without Black, Lappin, Brown (and Lynch obviously)...St. Kilda horrible record both a) outside, and b) without Gehrig.
Hopefully a couple of firms will offer totals again this season...be looking at a low scorer I reckon.
Still more than happy to have the bet for sure, bomber...Hey, PAWA, did you get my mail I sent about a week back now?
Not sure how 'accurate' the betfair odds are, but definately like the look of one or two games early....Two actually!
Very tough to pick a winner of Thursday night's opener...Brisbane without Black, Lappin, Brown (and Lynch obviously)...St. Kilda horrible record both a) outside, and b) without Gehrig.
Hopefully a couple of firms will offer totals again this season...be looking at a low scorer I reckon.
Still more than happy to have the bet for sure, bomber...Hey, PAWA, did you get my mail I sent about a week back now?
ytd: 0-0 (+0.0)
West Coast (1.77 @ Betfair)
This is well over the odds. West Coast have opened at 1.55 at Australian books, and I'd say that was much closer to where it should be. West Coast will be a very strong team this year, Adelaide not so. Home advantage for Adelaide might keep it reasonably close, but West Coast strength should prevail.
West Coast (1.77 @ Betfair)
This is well over the odds. West Coast have opened at 1.55 at Australian books, and I'd say that was much closer to where it should be. West Coast will be a very strong team this year, Adelaide not so. Home advantage for Adelaide might keep it reasonably close, but West Coast strength should prevail.
Port Adelaide (2.00)
Again, the home team are being over-rated here.
Port won the Premiership last year, and have regained 2 key players from injuries that missed last season.
Fremantle are always a .500 team, they lost their last 4 games of last season by an av. of 40 points and nothing indicates this year will be any different.
Port have won 8 of the last 10 games v. Freo...5 of those wins have come @ Freo, inc. last year by 10 points....In fact Port have an excellent record in Western Australia winning 8 of their last 10 against both Freo and the Eagles.
Port will be keen to get 2005 of to another good start, and should have too much for Freo...either way, there's no way they should start as underdogs!
Again, the home team are being over-rated here.
Port won the Premiership last year, and have regained 2 key players from injuries that missed last season.
Fremantle are always a .500 team, they lost their last 4 games of last season by an av. of 40 points and nothing indicates this year will be any different.
Port have won 8 of the last 10 games v. Freo...5 of those wins have come @ Freo, inc. last year by 10 points....In fact Port have an excellent record in Western Australia winning 8 of their last 10 against both Freo and the Eagles.
Port will be keen to get 2005 of to another good start, and should have too much for Freo...either way, there's no way they should start as underdogs!
Can?t wait for Thu night and will be heading up to the Gabba for the Brisbane vs St Kilda match.
Only seems like yesterday I was sitting at the MCG trying to cope with the disappointment of a Grand Final loss ? still have this painful image of all these goofy Port supporters flocking into Punt Road Oval after the match - need to get that out of mind !!!!
I am tempted by Brisbane at $1.85 even with some big names missing ? it is starting to look like Gehrig might be ready and Harvey should be ok despite his injury at training today ? with these two on the field this bet will lose some of its appeal.
Have to love Port Adelaide at $2.00 and they are clearly the bet of the round in my opinion ? simply a much better side and their record in the west has been as good as any traveling side in recent years.
Will be looking closely at Richmond with the points start ? nothing special about Richmond but I do think Geelong might be worth playing against in the early weeks.
Have a slight lean on Collingwood and will be keen if I can get $1.85 or higher.
Still waiting for a few more books to put out their markets out before making any definite plays.
Only seems like yesterday I was sitting at the MCG trying to cope with the disappointment of a Grand Final loss ? still have this painful image of all these goofy Port supporters flocking into Punt Road Oval after the match - need to get that out of mind !!!!
I am tempted by Brisbane at $1.85 even with some big names missing ? it is starting to look like Gehrig might be ready and Harvey should be ok despite his injury at training today ? with these two on the field this bet will lose some of its appeal.
Have to love Port Adelaide at $2.00 and they are clearly the bet of the round in my opinion ? simply a much better side and their record in the west has been as good as any traveling side in recent years.
Will be looking closely at Richmond with the points start ? nothing special about Richmond but I do think Geelong might be worth playing against in the early weeks.
Have a slight lean on Collingwood and will be keen if I can get $1.85 or higher.
Still waiting for a few more books to put out their markets out before making any definite plays.
I'm in guys...though I'm still going through the Roos catalogue to pick out which gear I want. I'll get back to ya on that real soon!! :mj07:
I'm all over Port. I cannot believe they have been tagged the dog in this one!! :scared
Was tempted by the Lions but this is probably the Saint's best chance to win up there. Will sit back and watch.
Three weeks ago I had my Roos penciled in for a first up victory versus Carlton. Now I'm thinking we'll get hammered!!
Spent plenty of late nights lately, going over years of stats for my upcoming systems and learnt one really important lesson. Always save your work every few minutes instead of at the end. Damn power surges!! :cursin:
Yeah Christo, got your mail. Now that Bomber is back home we could tee something up over that weekend. Plenty of time.
Footy is getting real close now. Can't wait.
I'm all over Port. I cannot believe they have been tagged the dog in this one!! :scared
Was tempted by the Lions but this is probably the Saint's best chance to win up there. Will sit back and watch.
Three weeks ago I had my Roos penciled in for a first up victory versus Carlton. Now I'm thinking we'll get hammered!!
Spent plenty of late nights lately, going over years of stats for my upcoming systems and learnt one really important lesson. Always save your work every few minutes instead of at the end. Damn power surges!! :cursin:
Yeah Christo, got your mail. Now that Bomber is back home we could tee something up over that weekend. Plenty of time.
Footy is getting real close now. Can't wait.
Brisbane out to $1.95 now and still tempted - but I think there is better value available this weekend so will give this game a miss from a betting perspective.
Just 2 confirmed plays at this stage:
Richmond +18.5 vs Geelong
Port Adelaide $2.00 vs Fremantle for 2 units
Will have a closer look at a possible play on Collingwood over the weekend.
Good luck everyone - fingers crossed we can start the season well !!!!
Just 2 confirmed plays at this stage:
Richmond +18.5 vs Geelong
Port Adelaide $2.00 vs Fremantle for 2 units
Will have a closer look at a possible play on Collingwood over the weekend.
Good luck everyone - fingers crossed we can start the season well !!!!
It looks a little odd that port are @ 2.00. Definitely looks the play but why such good odds? I know freo have been good at home in recent times but geez! Port's record in the west is solid and they will be anxious to prove to everyone that last year wasn't a one off! Jumping on board with you guys for 1 unit to open accounts for the year. Cartman, +18.5 looks tempting but Richmond have straight up shafted me in past seasons so staying away from this one, but GL with your play there.
All you'll ever get from Richmond is pain & misery Cartman!! Geelong could well belt the bejesus out of 'em.
Stay away from them is my tip. They have cost me plenty in the past as well. :cursin:
Bomber...I reckon your guys will get touched up by the Demons too. With the Melbourne guys puting in a big one. Sending off Broadbridge who died in the recent tsunami disaster. No way they let this game slip.
Stay away from them is my tip. They have cost me plenty in the past as well. :cursin:
Bomber...I reckon your guys will get touched up by the Demons too. With the Melbourne guys puting in a big one. Sending off Broadbridge who died in the recent tsunami disaster. No way they let this game slip.
Last edited:
Pawa, at first look I thought the dons getting so many points might be worth looking in to, but without Lloyd down there it's going to be much harder for the boys to get some goals on the board. Will watch the game but that is about it for me. How do you feel about the roos? I see a close game here that could go either way. The dogs should also be competitive against the pies on Monday christo.
Bit like Cartman, actually bomber, leaning towards Collingwood.
We always seem to have problems with 2 big forwards. Whitnall and Fev showed it in the Wizzard Cup, and Tarrant and Rocca usually have big games against us.
Still not convinced we are any good tbh!...I know Collingwood aren't either, but I think my $$ will still be in my pocket on Monday.
Brisbane v. St. Kilda under 180.5 (2.35) for tonights game tho.
Brisbane will really struggle to score with no Lynch or Brown up forward...Gehrig not 100% for the Saints, and they looked very poor without him pre-season (scoring-wise). I think most clubs by now know to stop the Saints, stop Gehrig kicking big bags, so I won't be surprised to see Brisbane drop a man or two back in front of him tonight.
Saints have av. only 66 in their last 5 trips to the Gabba, and Brisbane have allowed just 69 in their last 5 @ home (Crows, WC, St. K, Kangas and St. K)
Not long to go now lads!......
We always seem to have problems with 2 big forwards. Whitnall and Fev showed it in the Wizzard Cup, and Tarrant and Rocca usually have big games against us.
Still not convinced we are any good tbh!...I know Collingwood aren't either, but I think my $$ will still be in my pocket on Monday.
Brisbane v. St. Kilda under 180.5 (2.35) for tonights game tho.
Brisbane will really struggle to score with no Lynch or Brown up forward...Gehrig not 100% for the Saints, and they looked very poor without him pre-season (scoring-wise). I think most clubs by now know to stop the Saints, stop Gehrig kicking big bags, so I won't be surprised to see Brisbane drop a man or two back in front of him tonight.
Saints have av. only 66 in their last 5 trips to the Gabba, and Brisbane have allowed just 69 in their last 5 @ home (Crows, WC, St. K, Kangas and St. K)
Not long to go now lads!......
Last edited:
Unlucky with the under play tonight christo but there's plenty more action this weekend to make it back. As expected, a good quality close game to kick start the season and cannot wait for my dons to run out on sat night- hopefully they don't get pummeled too hard!
bomber...scary thing is I don't mind one little bit in losing last night! That was one fantastic game of football!...Maybe exagerated a little by our withdrawals!...But a GREAT game to start the season off.
Only other game I'm thinking of is Hawthorn +29.5.
Hawks have a great recent record v. Sydney, and too many people are writing the Hawks off. Sydney won't be world beaters either.
Hawthorn were more than competative v. St. Kilda in the opening round of the Wizzard Cup.
Hawthorn have won 4 of the last 5 meetings, the loss last year was by 1 point @ the SCG as 3.15 'dogs. (The last win was also at the SCG by 17 points as 4.00 'dogs!)
Sydney have a decent home record, but they don't win games by big margins...36 has been the biggest in their last 10 home games.
....actually, quite surprisingly, their 2 biggest winning margins (36 and 32) both came as underdogs v. Brisbane and St. Kilda!!
1.25 fav v. Hawthorn....loss by 17
1.50 fav v. Freo...........win by 31
1.15 fav v. Geelong......win by 6
1.22 fav v. Richmond....loss by 13
1.38 fav v. Hawthorn....win by 1
1.55 fav v. Doggies......win by 26
1.45 fav v. Adelaide.....win by 13
1.35 fav v. Kangaroos...loss by 6
Looks to be a decent time to jump on the Hawks with everyone writing them off.
Would have liked a couple of extra points...will wait to see what the line does towards game time.
Only other game I'm thinking of is Hawthorn +29.5.
Hawks have a great recent record v. Sydney, and too many people are writing the Hawks off. Sydney won't be world beaters either.
Hawthorn were more than competative v. St. Kilda in the opening round of the Wizzard Cup.
Hawthorn have won 4 of the last 5 meetings, the loss last year was by 1 point @ the SCG as 3.15 'dogs. (The last win was also at the SCG by 17 points as 4.00 'dogs!)
Sydney have a decent home record, but they don't win games by big margins...36 has been the biggest in their last 10 home games.
....actually, quite surprisingly, their 2 biggest winning margins (36 and 32) both came as underdogs v. Brisbane and St. Kilda!!
1.25 fav v. Hawthorn....loss by 17
1.50 fav v. Freo...........win by 31
1.15 fav v. Geelong......win by 6
1.22 fav v. Richmond....loss by 13
1.38 fav v. Hawthorn....win by 1
1.55 fav v. Doggies......win by 26
1.45 fav v. Adelaide.....win by 13
1.35 fav v. Kangaroos...loss by 6
Looks to be a decent time to jump on the Hawks with everyone writing them off.
Would have liked a couple of extra points...will wait to see what the line does towards game time.
er...just noticed something....
1.55 fav v. Doggies......win by 26
1.50 fav v. Freo...........win by 31
1.45 fav v. Adelaide.....win by 13
1.38 fav v. Hawthorn....win by 1
1.35 fav v. Kangaroos...loss by 6
1.25 fav v. Hawthorn....loss by 17
1.22 fav v. Richmond....loss by 13
1.15 fav v. Geelong......win by 6
Seems the more the Swannies are expected to win, the worse they go!...How very strange!
1.55 fav v. Doggies......win by 26
1.50 fav v. Freo...........win by 31
1.45 fav v. Adelaide.....win by 13
1.38 fav v. Hawthorn....win by 1
1.35 fav v. Kangaroos...loss by 6
1.25 fav v. Hawthorn....loss by 17
1.22 fav v. Richmond....loss by 13
1.15 fav v. Geelong......win by 6
Seems the more the Swannies are expected to win, the worse they go!...How very strange!
Yeah, was a great game to kick the season off last night. Gotta wonder if Riewoldt's departure during the 3rd quarter could have changed the outcome. I was hoping for the 2 teams to bust each other up and I wasn't dissappointed!!
How tough is Chris Scott? He made Hamill's night hell and lost a couple of teeth in the process!! Hamill is still to become a match winner and I reckon he is over rated by people.
I'd love to have Scott and Mal Michael (how did Collingwood give him up?!!) in my team. They are just plain nasty!!!
Interesting stats on Sydney v Hawthorn Christo. Might be worth a nibble.
How tough is Chris Scott? He made Hamill's night hell and lost a couple of teeth in the process!! Hamill is still to become a match winner and I reckon he is over rated by people.
I'd love to have Scott and Mal Michael (how did Collingwood give him up?!!) in my team. They are just plain nasty!!!
Interesting stats on Sydney v Hawthorn Christo. Might be worth a nibble.
Fantastic game to start the new season - the crowd was unusually quiet up until late in the 3rd quarter but then started going nuts when the Lions got the lead back - thought some of the younger Lions stood up well.
Have to say the Riewoldt injury might have been the difference in the end - Saints had all the momentum when he left the field and seemed to lose all their structure without him.
I haven't seen the replay of the match on television yet but the Riewoldt injury looked like at least 4-6 weeks which is going to really hurt the Saints - in saying this they do have a reasonably soft draw for the next few weeks.
Christo - some really good info you have posted on Hawthorn and you have definately talked me into a play on them.
Have also found my price on Collingwood (with Pinnacle) so will add a play on them also.
Hawthorn +29.5 vs Sydney
Collingwood $1.87 vs Wstn Bulldogs
Have to say the Riewoldt injury might have been the difference in the end - Saints had all the momentum when he left the field and seemed to lose all their structure without him.
I haven't seen the replay of the match on television yet but the Riewoldt injury looked like at least 4-6 weeks which is going to really hurt the Saints - in saying this they do have a reasonably soft draw for the next few weeks.
Christo - some really good info you have posted on Hawthorn and you have definately talked me into a play on them.
Have also found my price on Collingwood (with Pinnacle) so will add a play on them also.
Hawthorn +29.5 vs Sydney
Collingwood $1.87 vs Wstn Bulldogs
GL fellas - too busy with other sports to do justice to the AFL so will be piggybacking the forum all yr long... 
BTW, where can i get livescore on these games? At official site of afl i see nothing right now...
I hope everyones had a great offseason and is ready to get back into it and start winning some $$$.
Excellent game to start the season on Thursday night. Had thought about a bet on Brisbane to start the season but decided against it.
1837, the scores will be on the AFL website when a match is on. The opener was thursday night Australian time and the next game is saturday afternoon Australian time.
Now for some plays in this first round. Always a tough round as no form to go on and using preseason and last year as a guide can be misleading.
Round 1 Plays
Carlton -10.5 d North Melbourne
The winner of the preseason comp has won in round 1 in 6 of the last seven years as follows:
2004 St Kilda by 61
2003 Adelaide by 56
2002 Port lost by 10
2001 Port by 6
2000 Essendon by 96
1999 Hawthorn by 15
1998 North Melbourne by 2
add this to the preseason form and Carlton looks a pretty good play to me.
Port d Freo
This game just sticks out a mile as a bet for the reason already posted by others.
Bulldogs d Collingwood
Just have a feeling the Bulldogs will get the win here.
Other Games:
Melbourne/Essendon No Play
This will be an emotional game for Melbourne and this may be a good or bad thng. I also have seen little of Essendon to know where they are at especially with Matthew Lloyd replaced at full forward by a player who has kicked 2 career goals.
Sydney/Hawthorn No Play
I expect Sydney to win this game but its too early in the season to be betting on a game like this.
Adelaide/West Coast No Play
Don't know how to read this game as West Coast don't travel well. As an Adelaide supporter I think I'll just enjoy watching the first game of the year.
Richmond/Geelong No Play
Richmond are involved in the match. Isn't that enough of reason to stay away?
Craig
Excellent game to start the season on Thursday night. Had thought about a bet on Brisbane to start the season but decided against it.
1837, the scores will be on the AFL website when a match is on. The opener was thursday night Australian time and the next game is saturday afternoon Australian time.
Now for some plays in this first round. Always a tough round as no form to go on and using preseason and last year as a guide can be misleading.
Round 1 Plays
Carlton -10.5 d North Melbourne
The winner of the preseason comp has won in round 1 in 6 of the last seven years as follows:
2004 St Kilda by 61
2003 Adelaide by 56
2002 Port lost by 10
2001 Port by 6
2000 Essendon by 96
1999 Hawthorn by 15
1998 North Melbourne by 2
add this to the preseason form and Carlton looks a pretty good play to me.
Port d Freo
This game just sticks out a mile as a bet for the reason already posted by others.
Bulldogs d Collingwood
Just have a feeling the Bulldogs will get the win here.
Other Games:
Melbourne/Essendon No Play
This will be an emotional game for Melbourne and this may be a good or bad thng. I also have seen little of Essendon to know where they are at especially with Matthew Lloyd replaced at full forward by a player who has kicked 2 career goals.
Sydney/Hawthorn No Play
I expect Sydney to win this game but its too early in the season to be betting on a game like this.
Adelaide/West Coast No Play
Don't know how to read this game as West Coast don't travel well. As an Adelaide supporter I think I'll just enjoy watching the first game of the year.
Richmond/Geelong No Play
Richmond are involved in the match. Isn't that enough of reason to stay away?
Craig
