Watched a fair amount of Essendon-Brisbane too - Bombers never in the game really, and ball nowhere near Lloyd, so not much chance for dives!
AFL Round 10
- Thread starter Cartman88
- Start date
Interesting Kangaroos note :-
kick to handball ratio with their gameplan is usually around 2.2 or so
this year in home games 1.8 and same for opponents
away games 2.5 and opponents 2.1
actually 3-2 in these away games as well
last 2 games this ratio has been over 2, with McKernan and Rocca as targets
so perhaps if the Roos try the running handball game they get killed, but were forced to out of desperation - but when they don't, a much bigger chance
actually didn't v Essendon, but hey, healthy Essendon kills you anyway
one game they covered and did not have the standard gameplan was Collingwood, so lucky perhaps
kick to handball ratio with their gameplan is usually around 2.2 or so
this year in home games 1.8 and same for opponents
away games 2.5 and opponents 2.1
actually 3-2 in these away games as well
last 2 games this ratio has been over 2, with McKernan and Rocca as targets
so perhaps if the Roos try the running handball game they get killed, but were forced to out of desperation - but when they don't, a much bigger chance
actually didn't v Essendon, but hey, healthy Essendon kills you anyway
one game they covered and did not have the standard gameplan was Collingwood, so lucky perhaps
and, a bomber flaw?
165-71-69
they did not just look crap, they were crap
230 odd disposals?
they had TWO games with less than 200 kicks last year, basically
this is their worst game for a long, long, long time
one of them the crappy rain game v Sydney, still close to 300 disposals there
interesting fundamental form slump
absolutely slaughtered, their new ruckman, tough task that of course, interesting, as never rated Barnes as being important - but the experience is it would seem
165-71-69
they did not just look crap, they were crap
230 odd disposals?
they had TWO games with less than 200 kicks last year, basically
this is their worst game for a long, long, long time
one of them the crappy rain game v Sydney, still close to 300 disposals there
interesting fundamental form slump
absolutely slaughtered, their new ruckman, tough task that of course, interesting, as never rated Barnes as being important - but the experience is it would seem
yet another trivia trend - Magpies 0-4 ATS as a fave - not that great opposition, fre, kan, stk, syd
all home games, too 4-0 as road dogs
reverse team, fundamentals significantly better away, and vs good teams - whacky
all home games, too 4-0 as road dogs
reverse team, fundamentals significantly better away, and vs good teams - whacky
Well Round 10 was certainly the worst round this year with my 3 picks all going down.
The form has been fairly inconsistent in the past few weeks. Some of the teams that were looking really solid (Wstn Bulldogs Collingwood & Essendon) all played very poorly on the weekend.
A couple of weeks ago I mentioned that there was not that much difference between most of the sides and I think the recent results are showing that.
I also recall Aussie Vamp had raised the issue of whether backing point spread favs is the way to go, and the inconsistent performances by some of the better sides shows me that he has a good point.
By backing point spread favs (especially -20 or more) you not only need to win but you need to win impressively to cover the line. Certainly this will happen in some games but not enough to hit 60% which is what my aim is.
The disappointing AFL results were fortunately off-set by the NRL which went 4-0 on the weekend.
The form has been fairly inconsistent in the past few weeks. Some of the teams that were looking really solid (Wstn Bulldogs Collingwood & Essendon) all played very poorly on the weekend.
A couple of weeks ago I mentioned that there was not that much difference between most of the sides and I think the recent results are showing that.
I also recall Aussie Vamp had raised the issue of whether backing point spread favs is the way to go, and the inconsistent performances by some of the better sides shows me that he has a good point.
By backing point spread favs (especially -20 or more) you not only need to win but you need to win impressively to cover the line. Certainly this will happen in some games but not enough to hit 60% which is what my aim is.
The disappointing AFL results were fortunately off-set by the NRL which went 4-0 on the weekend.
another way to put it is, in general, if you look at the AFL for a long time, the difference between the 'top' teams and an average team, is, basically around 20 points
(Essendon notwithstanding) - would have to look up my research on average to bottom - but in that situation you are relying on 'not so good teams' to both score and defend, which is tough - e.g. the Geelong and Swans deals this week as 'obvious' examples fo this situation - not taking into account other factors. Good team vs average team at home, have to add on a bit for the HFA of course.
As an historical note - Hawthorn were close to 30 for their bigtime period, speaking of freak teams.
and the league is more even with teams with much less depth due to stupid team list sizes
and one other quirk - scoring for the opposition can be a valid defensive option in footy, this is almost never the case in any other sport - especially sports that are incredibly low scoring like American Football, Rugby League, soccer, etc.
here's the current list
RATINGS LADDER
Essendon 39.93
Carlton 25.79
Port Adelaide 18.08
Brisbane 11.95
Melbourne 6.99
Hawthorn 3.96
Sydney -0.12
Adelaide -0.30
Western Bulldogs -0.74
Kangaroos -0.79
Richmond -1.49
Collingwood -3.28
Geelong -6.66
St. Kilda -25.16
Fremantle -31.43
West Coast -36.84
-- ignoring the bombers, as a statistical freak (scumbags) Carlton and Port are your standard 'top class' teams currently. West Coast is also an aberration at the opposite end currently, some of the worst football being played ever - or for many years, at least.
(Essendon notwithstanding) - would have to look up my research on average to bottom - but in that situation you are relying on 'not so good teams' to both score and defend, which is tough - e.g. the Geelong and Swans deals this week as 'obvious' examples fo this situation - not taking into account other factors. Good team vs average team at home, have to add on a bit for the HFA of course.
As an historical note - Hawthorn were close to 30 for their bigtime period, speaking of freak teams.
and the league is more even with teams with much less depth due to stupid team list sizes
and one other quirk - scoring for the opposition can be a valid defensive option in footy, this is almost never the case in any other sport - especially sports that are incredibly low scoring like American Football, Rugby League, soccer, etc.
here's the current list
RATINGS LADDER
Essendon 39.93
Carlton 25.79
Port Adelaide 18.08
Brisbane 11.95
Melbourne 6.99
Hawthorn 3.96
Sydney -0.12
Adelaide -0.30
Western Bulldogs -0.74
Kangaroos -0.79
Richmond -1.49
Collingwood -3.28
Geelong -6.66
St. Kilda -25.16
Fremantle -31.43
West Coast -36.84
-- ignoring the bombers, as a statistical freak (scumbags) Carlton and Port are your standard 'top class' teams currently. West Coast is also an aberration at the opposite end currently, some of the worst football being played ever - or for many years, at least.
This is another interesting topic of discussion at the moment.
There has been cases this year where teams with huge injury lists such as St Kilda Sydney and West Coast have been trying to pick there sides from only 22 or 23 players (which is ridiculous).
Some are saying that this is caused because they are drafting players too young, and their bodies can't cope with top level footy. With the natural injuries to the older players, they need the younger players on deck.
The obvious solution is to increase the player list. The trouble is that there is really only a pool of about 600 players suitable for top level AFL. If you bring more players in then the quality of football may start to drop.
So what is the solution ??
In my opinion they do need to increase the player list. However the only way to do this without affecting the quality of the game is to axe possibly two sides from the competition. This of course would open up a huge can of worms.
With the way West Coast and Fremantle are going I think that a merger could be the answer to their prayers. Unfortunately even if you combine their competition points together they would still be coming last !!!
Once again Beast thanks again for posting my results (working weekends at present)
1-2 for the weekend and missed out on the pick 4 due to the bulldogs
season to date
At the line picks 16-15
Pick 4 1-1 +2.05.
Great info their Cartmann and Aussievamp keep them coming much appreciated.Worst results as a group so far I feel we will make amends this weekend goodluck to all.
1-2 for the weekend and missed out on the pick 4 due to the bulldogs
season to date
At the line picks 16-15
Pick 4 1-1 +2.05.
Great info their Cartmann and Aussievamp keep them coming much appreciated.Worst results as a group so far I feel we will make amends this weekend goodluck to all.
I am not sure at all that there are only 600 afl quality footballers around with where some guys get picked up from sometimes - but playing kids is definitely a problem - at 18 I might have been a little faster, but at 22 you would beat the hell out of your 18 year old self.
The Paul Salmon classic, so to speak. Teams used to have three whole teams to chooNse from, senior, reserve and under 19 - now tons of 18 year olds running around admittedly the threat of literal physical violence is less now, but still.
How many 25 year olds etc. get dumped because of lack of team list length because you have to cut to draft.
No injured reserve lists, no picking up extra players, all not helpful.
The Paul Salmon classic, so to speak. Teams used to have three whole teams to chooNse from, senior, reserve and under 19 - now tons of 18 year olds running around admittedly the threat of literal physical violence is less now, but still.
How many 25 year olds etc. get dumped because of lack of team list length because you have to cut to draft.
No injured reserve lists, no picking up extra players, all not helpful.
