AFL Round 18

[UT-Longhorn]

Just wanted to go ahead and get this thread going..........

ROUND 18 Matches

FRIDAY JULY 30 ACST
Adelaide vs Kangaroos
AAMI Stadium 8:10 PM ACST

SATURDAY JULY 31 AEST
Carlton vs Fremantle
Optus Oval 2:10 PM AEST

Collingwood vs Richmond
MCG 2:10 PM AEST

Essendon vs Port Adelaide
Telstra Dome 7:10 PM AEST

Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions
S.C.G. 7:10 PM AEST

SUNDAY AUGUST 1 AEST
Geelong vs St Kilda
Skilled Stadium 1:10 PM AEST

Melbourne vs Hawthorn
MCG 2:10 PM AEST

West Coast Eagles vs Western Bulldogs
Subiaco Oval 2:10 PM AWST


Anyone know of any early lines yet on these games? or possible lines? Any early opinions/leans?

 

[Cannon]

Without knowing the lines...I like GEELONG @ Skilled Stadium over St.Kilda.....and FREMANTLE...they aren't getting much respect...I think there will be a decent line for that match.

 

[MrChristo]

Match odds are out on each Monday at Centebet....Lines generally there by late Tuesday/early Wednesday.
Odds usually at Pinnacle late Tuesday, lines follow.
Canbet seem to be all over the place!!....But generally lines come out late Wednesday.
No lines at Olympic until Thursday night.

Geelong @ 1.75 isprobably a bit skinny, but by some kind of logic...I took Melbourne to beat the Saints @ 1.60, so I guess 1.75 isn't too bad.
Freo 1.90 @ Carlton. No real idea about that game!! Best left WELL alone imo.

All in all not a great betting week, I don't think.
1 good bet, and a couple of maybes.

Back later...PAWA, any system thoughts??

Oh, and you and beast, feel free to give us some thoughts on how you think the Kanga's/Crows will pan out on Friday night.
(bomber, you're gunna love this....)...My GF is currently 2 tips ahead in a local comp. worth $700....and I gotta tell ya that I think there are 4 very dodgy games this week!!

 

[MrChristo]

41-29 (+21.73)

Port Adelaide -11.5 (2 units)

Essendon have only beaten one team in the top 8 this season..That was Sydney at home. They are still very over-rated.
Although Essendon are likely to get Hird and Fletcher back...Lucas is the biggest key..and he is still unlikely.

Port have won 8 of their last 9 games and are back at full strength. Port have won the last 6 meetings by an av. of over 45 points. Port have also won 7 of their last 8 games in the dome by an av. of 27 points.

 

[MrChristo]

Geelong -5.5

Geelong haven't lost a game in Victoria since Rd. 2!!
They have won 10 of the last 12 games, losing by 4 points @ Port and 2 points @ West Coast.
They have won their last 6 games @ Geelong going back to last year by an av. of 21 points....inc. beating the Saints in Rd. 22 last year by 19 points as 2.50 'dogs.

St. Kilda have lost their last 4 games outdoors by 57, 46, 23 and 36 points...and the difference in their stats outdoor is amazing! They go from over 20 more inside 50's a game in the dome, to 2 less outdoors!! They also go from 113 points per game, to a measly 81 outdoors!!

Like Geelong to get another home win here, and should be able to cover the 5.5

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Two 'express' system plays for this week. First up is Fremantle to do the cross-country trip and take home the 'win' against Carlton. The second is Geelong to cover the goal start to the Saints. Christo has told you the telling stats between these two teams. I'm seeing the Cat's tight backline strangling the Sainter's offensive juggernaut.

Also plenty of 'strong plays' (too many in fact!)
Kangaroos, Fremantle,Brisbane, Melbourne and West Coast all qualifying as goers. Most will win but I don't think they can all cover their respective numbers. I do like the first three.

With Schwab getting the dick after the Kangaroos pounding last week, new stand-in coach (and ex-Kangaroo player!) Donald McDonald will have his work cut out. But then again.....50+ is a big headstart!!

 

[bombercoops]

Christo, good to see the Mrs. doing well in the local comp. Do you happen to be involved in the same comp and forgot to leave it out?? And has she got you covered for the year mate- had to ask!
Like your thinking this week 'C' on port and the cats. Love port at 11.5 and honestly thought that they would be giving 25ish before the lines were released. Dons still way over-rated and will get beaten comfortably IMO on sat night. Might load up here.

 

[MrChristo]

Do you happen to be involved in the same comp and forgot to leave it out?? And has she got you covered for the year mate- had to ask!

:cursin: I think you already know the answer to that question, bomber! :142lmao:

 

[UT-Longhorn]

Thanks guys for your input, my question now is in regard to MELBOURNE and WEST COAST. I am wanting to do another Moneyline Parlay this week, do you feel pretty Confident that Melbourne should win outright, as well as West Coast? Let me know if you think these two should win their matches this weekend or not........

Also thinking of taking Collingwood by themself on the Moneyline, should they win, or is that just a toss up game about who should win it?

 

[MrChristo]

Hey...Love how we've 'recruited' a few guys from the ol' US of A!

Can't see any problem with eith er West Cost or Melbourne winning, but I think they are too short and don't see any great value. (If that makes sense?)
Hawthorn did beat Melbourne in Rd. 1 by 49 points!! (Man, is that hard to believe now!! )...but they have only won one game since...However, the threat of some rain might even the game up a bit.
Also the Doggies DREW with West Coast in Perth last year as 5.25 'dogs. Scott West's 250th game SHOULD get some heart into the Bulldogs! (Although from what I have seen the last 2/3 weeks, it is fairly unlikely!)
Actually kinda like the Dogs +45ish. West Coast's biggest win all year has been by 44. Gardiner and Embly killed the Dog's in Rd. 1....they are both out....

...Having said all that, I WILL be surprised if eith er Melbourne or West Coast lose.

As for the Richmond game, I really think this is best left alone. Collingwood's win last week (against a horrible Bulldogs performance!) was their first of the year without Tarrant and Rocca (Their 2 key forwards.). They have a reasonably poor midfield and usually rely on these 2 to kick a decent score.
Richmond are terrible, no doubt, but they might actaully see this as a winnable game.
When Darcy went forward for the Dogs last week, Collingwood had to put Cloke on him!!....So Richo should have a big day on who-ever (no Wakelin), and if they can sneak Ottens forward and mybe even Ray Hall, they should really be able to stretch the Collingwood backline.

One of those funny games that could go absolutely anyway at all!!
IMO, Richmond are definately some chance @ 3.30!!...But I'd much rather take them to win than on the spread, because if they don't win, there's every chance they get beaten by 60+!!

Hope all/some/any of that made sense!! :lol:

 

[MrChristo]

Well...I've just talked myself into it..........

Richmond @ 3.30 (Pinnacle)

Odds are simply WAY too high, as this game is a toss up at best.
Tarrant, Rocca, Didak out....even against Richmond's "defense", this team really should struggle to score.
Wakelin and Presti out also....Richo, Ottens and Hall SHOULD have a big day!

What surprised me is the Inside 50 stat. Richmond dead last on 782 for the season...but Collingwood 794!!
Richmond have more clearances for the year 585 to 573.
Their respective defenses are EXACTLY the same...both allowing a shot at goal every 1.91 times the ball enters their 50.
BUT...Collingwood have the statistical advantage in scoring...Until these injuries!!

Really think Richmond are a MASSIVE show here....3.30 is just too tempting! (God...How am I gunna regret this!) :cursin:

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Good luck with the Tigers Christo......but they are the one team that has given me the most pain and misery $-wise over the years.

I swear I'll never back em again!!

 

[UT-Longhorn]

Thanks for your input guys, what about if I buy Hawthorn and Western both up to +50? Should that be better? Think they could stay within 50? Actually I can buy up to +10 points, so seeing that, would you touch either of the huge dogs this weekend? Lines would look like this---

Hawthorne +57.5
Western +53.5

Mr. Christo-- did you have any thoughts on the Port Adelaide game?

 

[MrChristo]

On Port -11.5, Longhorn....Think they win easily.

Couldn't possibly play Hawthorn...and will wait until closer to game time to think about the Bulldogs...Rain and wind forecast in Perth should even it up a bit.
Bandy also in for sure...BIG inclusion for the Doggies.

But, still....There are better games this week.

Load up on Port and Geelong, and have a bit of interest on Richmond mate....All should work out well enough! :toast:

 

[PAWAQATSI]

I fully concur with MrC.

Port and Geelong look good for a big serve of $ pie.

I'm having a little on my Roos tonight Under 39.5pts v Beasty's boys in Adelaide. I expect they'll be out to gain some of that respect that Brisbane tore off them last week but we have too much to play for with the finals looming on the horizon and our 'winable' games running out!!

GO YOU ROOS :firing:

 

[UT-Longhorn]

So you think the ROOS win at home today?

do you have any thoughts BEAST?

 

[nehpets]

DONT BUY THEM UP TO +57 or +53 or anything silly like that! (very little chance that the fave wins by 40-60 pts)

I like:
PORT
GEELONG
Western Bulldogs

 

[beast2]

Year to Date: 39-23 (62%) for +12.1 Units

The Roos are the away team Longhorn and while they will probably beat Adeliade I believe this is one game to avoid.

Adelaide coming off an embarassing 141 point loss should play with some pride and can make this a closer game many think and even possibly cause the upset.

Craig

 

[nehpets]

Now I see why I was uncertain where that roos game was!
I would have thought a line closer to pk would have been in order for a match in adelaide ... roos leading 13-2 at the moment

 

[MrChristo]

Adding: Bulldogs +45.5

West Coast haven't won a game by this much all year. They only beat Richmond by 37 at home.
Dogs play (relatively!) better outdoors than in the dome...they are 4-2 ATS this number outside...losing by 55 and 68 @ Port and Brisbane, both significantly better than WC.
West Coast's biggest winning margin in the last 8 head-to-heads is 32 points...and as I said earlier, the teams drew last season when the Dog's were BIG outsiders.
Bandy is a big inclusion. West's 250th...Cousins, Gardiner and Embly out for Eagles.
Not expecting Dogs to get up, but a 30odd margin won't surprise me.
Forecast IS for a wet/windy day too...hopefully will be nice and windy, will make it hard for WC to win too big.

And, lord!!...Is this THE worst game of footy EVER??
Kanga's don't deserve a finals spot after this "effort".