AFL: Round 2

[bombercoops]

This weeks games:

Coll -31.5 v Carl
Ess -3.5 v Melb
Freo -6.5 v Syd
Haw -3.5 v West coast
West bull -3.5 v Rich
Adel -27.5 v St. Kilda
Bris -9.5 v Port Ad.
Geel -3.5 v Kang.

Looks like brisbane and Mr. Cristo's Bulldogs could be the money games of the weekend. Also like melbourne's value as 3.5 dogs against a dons side that will struggle this year after the loss of a few key players and with plenty of young faces who still need time to develop.

 

[MrChristo]

Good work, bombercoops.

Where'd you get the spreads this early in the week, mate?

All the books I use wait until teams on Thursday night.

Looks like another fav's weekend....Only one dog there I like (even with their skipper out )

 

[bombercoops]

Mr Cristo, got the lines from www.canbet.com. They post them mid-afternoon every tuesday. Hope your dogs can continue the fine form displayed last week against the tigers this weekend.

 

[souzathelooza]

Match Preview: Port Adelaide v Brisbane Lions
7:51:57 PM Mon 31 March, 2003
Kevin Diggerson
afl.com.au


MATCH: Port Adelaide vs. Brisbane

WHEN & WHERE: Saturday 5 April, AAMI Stadium, 7:10pm

COVERAGE: Channel 10 -- Melbourne (7.30pm), Adelaide (7.30pm), Brisbane (7.30pm). Fox Footy Channel -- Perth (5.30pm), Sydney (7.30pm)

LAST TIME: Brisbane advanced to the 2003 grand final with a 56 point win over Port Adelaide in the preliminary final. The Lions pulled away after half time, with Alastair Lynch kicking five and Des Headland best for the Lions. Stuart Dew booted four for Port.


THE MEDICAL ROOM: Port Adelaide: Cain Ackland (osteitis pubis), Wade Champion (modified program), Roger James (groin), Adam Kingsley (hamstring), Paul Koulouriotis (hamstring), Jarrad Schofield (hamstring), Darryl Wakelin (back), Damon White (ankle), Michael Wilson (hamstring). Brisbane: Clark Keating (foot), Craig McRae (wrist), Darryl White (corked leg).

THE FORM: Brisbane was efficient in its first up win over Essendon, enhancing its favouritism for a third consecutive flag. Port Adelaide continued to struggle, going down to West Coast by 48 points.

WHO?S HOT: Pick any Lions star. Michael Voss, Jason Akermanis, Nigel Lappin, Daniel Bradshaw and Brad Scott all kicked off their season in great fashion. Gavin Wanganeen, Peter Burgoyne and Nick Stevens were among the Power?s best.

WHO?S NOT: Tough to find a Lion who is down. For Port Adelaide, Matthew Primus will need to lift and Warren Tredrea will be better for the run.

KEY MATCH-UPS: Primus will need to give his midfielders first use of the ball, and he will likely match up against Jamie Charman and Dylan McLaren. Josh Carr will be missed and Mark Williams will need to find ways to shut down the Lions midfield.

ALL-TIME CLASSIC: There are plenty to choose from, with the clubs having played two draws and two other games decided by less than 10 points. It is tough to go past round 22 of last year. With the minor premiership on the line, the Power prevailed by six points, winning 13.12 (90) to 13.6 (84).

WE THINK: Brisbane is one of the most dominant teams of the recent era, and appears at the top of its game. Port Adelaide has endured an injury plagued pre-season but is always tough at home. The Lions to prevail by 38 points.

I'm on Brisbane -167 PK
CanBet.com

enjoy.

 

[MrChristo]

Cheers, mate.

I checked there after I left here....Didn't ever think they were out until Thursday either!!...nice surprise


EDIT: Nothing wrong with the Lions this week, souzathelooza, but if you take too much notice of the previews on the AFL site, chances are you'll be going backwards in the long run.

 

[bombercoops]

Well it seems that there has been some heavy early betting. Essendon, freo and geelong have strengthened as favs with the rest of the early money heading in carlton, richmond and st. kilda's
favour. Like the look of that pies line narrowing.

 

[souzathelooza]

MrChristo,

I've noticed the previews on the AFL
site can be quite biased. I originally
had a strong lean towards the Lions, and this
write up has justified my views. By no means
would i make a sound handicapping judgement
based on the AFL site alone.

I am looking forward to sharing some solid
handicapping info with all the boys down under
this season. I usually handicap these matches
on the internet from a technical standpoint,
due to the fact I have very limited access
to the AFL here in Southern California.

if you have any websites that can be used for
capping purposes, please let me know.

let's have some fun......:jump:

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

good luck this week, gents!!!

 

[MrChristo]

I cannot believe ANYONE putting any kind of money on Carlton, Richmond or St. Kilda!!!

I got a very pleasant surprise when I first saw 2 of those lines.......Then nearly sqeeled like Neddy Flanders when I looked back a couple of hours later!!!!!

 

[bombercoops]

Mr. Cristo. You're right about ANYONE puting money on St. Kilda or
Carlton. Unless they have some inside information that we don't know about (like maybe Rocca, licuria, prestig.,buckley, tarrant, molloy, burns, wakelin and some of the other boys aren't playing)
I would have to think they are crazy! Hopefully these thoughts don't backfire on me cause I'll be on the other side of all of them. Guess we'll see what happens Mr. Cristo.

 

[british bulldog]

Just received a telephone call from friend out there in sunny Australia. Big fan and bettor in Aussie rules.

Here's this weeks winners;


CARLTON + 29.5 @ 1.9
ESSENDON - 6.5 @ 1.9 + ML @ 1.72
BRISBANE - 10.5 @ 1.9 + ML @ 1.6
GEELONG - 5.5 @ 1.9 + ML @ 1.75
WEST COAST ML @ 1.9
BULLDOGS ML @ 1.9

 

[bombercoops]

Good luck on your last 5 games bulldog. On the other side of the carlton game but it should prove to be a tight line. Good luck to all with their picks this week.

 

[MrChristo]

** LATE BREAKING NEWS **

Carey, McLeod, Stevens and Edwards all killed in a light plane crash on Thursday!!.......

.......At leat that's the headline I keep expecting to see!!

Why the ****ing hell the Adelaide line is down to -22.5 is an absolute mystery to me!

Adelaide win this game by 10 goals, going away.....take it to the bank!!

British....I'd be surprised if Carlton got within 79.5 points!!
Also think the Kangaroos are good things down @ Geelong.
But good luck.

 

[beast2]

Year to Date: 1-2

Last week was half a point from going 2-1. Melbourne crashed from a 38 point lead to nearly blow the match before failing to cover by half a point.

Round 3 Plays
In an unprecendeneted move I have 7 bets this weekend. I tried reduce the number of plays but each time found a reasion to continue to support the team I was betting on.

Collingwood -30.5 d Carlton
Collingwood won the Friday night match late last year by 108 and I see no reason why it won't be a similar margin.

Essendon -5.5 d Melbourne
Essendon have won 10 of the last 11 against Melbourne.

Adelaide -24.5 d St Kilda
Am i nuts or something? OK don't answer that but why in the world is this line moving in favor of St Kilda. <possible bias> Adelaide looked awesome against Fremantle</possible bias>

Brisbane -10.5 d Port
Round 22 last year saw Port at their best only beat Brisbane by a goal. This time Port is struggling with injuries and with news that Hardwick is out things just go from bad to worse.

Sydney +8.5 d Fremantle
One of my less confident selection but just have a feeling Sydney will win as they should be confident team after the big victory while Fremantle were very poor against Adelaide.

Hawthorn PK d West Coast
West Coast only won 2 away games I believe and with that in mind I must back Hawthorn at York Park, a ground thaey have now played at a number of times and should be familar with.

Kangaroos +5.5 d Geelong
Kangaroos have won last two at Shell Stadium and I fancy they win another one.

Craig

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Yes Craig....you have gone friggin' nuts with that many picks this week.

Alas, I have to admit I was thinking the very same on all but the Carlton / Collingwood game myself. Too many to take a punt on with the train leaving soon!!! Will settle for the following:

Season to date: 1-0 +4.5u

Brisbane -9.5 versus Port Adelaide @ $1.90 2 units
Brisbane continuing where they left off last week and Port currently in disarray.

Kangaroos Under 39.5 versus Geelong @ $2.65 1 unit
My Roos have the best record playing at Geelong and have beaten them 6 of the last 7 times. We just match up well against them and I feel a lot of it is in their heads now!! We can't blow them out so I feel the under has better value.

Essendon Under 39.5 versus Melbourne @ $2.40 1 unit
A similar story here with the Bombers winning 10 of the last 11 encounters. They certainly have owned the Demons over the years. The Bombers may be on the slide but with Fletcher back in I'll take 'em.

Adelaide -24.5 versus St. Kilda @ $1.90 2 units
Nothing else to add that hasn't been posted above!!! Probably the 'banker' of the round.


Happy hunting fellas



**Got your mail MrC

 

[redsfan]

this is my first posting on this forum

I'm interested in following the 'Pawamech express' but am very naive on some of the terminology

Can someone explain under / over and which bookies quote this line?
I have an account with Centrebet and with Sportstab and Sportodds.

Pawaqatsi which bookie quotes the odds for your plays or does it vary. It's just a matter of time-saving for shopping around?

I'm strapped in and awaiting the off!

 

[mrshoes]

:shrug: need to know the same answers:lol2

 

[souzathelooza]

RedsFan,

For example, when Pawaqatsi mentions the wager...

"Essendon UNDER 39 1/2 vs. Melbourne"

It means Essendon MUST win the match
between 1 and 39 points. Any other outcome
is a loss.

GoodLuck.:jump:

 

[bombercoops]

MrC, how confident are you of your dogs having a win on sunday without grant in the side? Tossing up whether to take them or not.
Should be a good game between the dees and dons today and hopefully Adelaide can easily cover that spread. Love brisbane at
-9.5 tonight. Noticed that pawa and beast had the same picks so let's down down the books today fellas!

 

[jpblack34]

come on bomber, we need some W's on the board so we can get a new white lightning....following your picks this week. GL mate!

Pawaqatsi....can I just ride in the luggage compartment when your express rolls next week, I promise I'll fit.