MATCH: Brisbane v Collingwood.
WHEN & WHERE: Gabba, 7.40pm (AEST) Thursday.
COVERAGE: Channel Nine.
LAST TIME: Brisbane 10.15 (75) d Collingwood 9.12 (66), 2002 grand final at the MCG. In one of the greatest grand finals of the modern era, the Lions hung on in a thriller to win back-to-back premierships. The Magpies were the biggest grand final underdogs for years but relished the wettest grand final conditions since 1958 with skipper Nathan Buckley inspirational. The Pies hit the front in the final quarter but the Lions regained the lead through Alastair Lynch and then sealed victory with a goal to Jason Akermanis with just minutes remaining. Lynch kicked four for the Lions while skipper Michael Voss was unlucky to be edged out by Buckley for the Norm Smith Medal.
THE MEDICAL ROOM: The Magpies suffered a massive blow during last week?s win over Geelong with star midfielder Tarkyn Lockyer suffering a season-ending knee injury. The Lions in contrast should have their side strengthened for Thursday night?s grand final replay with the likely returns of key forwards Alastair Lynch and Jonathan Brown. Lynch missed last week?s thrilling draw with the Kangaroos with a relapse of his long-running chronic fatigue syndrome while Brown was out with a hip injury.
THE FORM: Last year?s two grand finalists have made impressive starts to 2003 with both sides yet to lose in their first three matches. However the all-conquering reigning premiers showed some signs of vulnerability last week after tying with the Kangaroos at Telstra Dome. This came following a hard-fought ten point win over Port Adelaide at AAMI Stadium and the Lions will relish the return to home soil this week, having not played at the Gabba since thrashing Essendon in round one. The Magpies have been impressive in being the only team to record maximum points after round three, having disposed of Richmond, Carlton and Geelong.
WHO?S HOT: He is already staking claims to being the pick-up of the season with former Eagle Andrew Williams making a big impact in his first three weeks at Collingwood. Little-known outside of Perth during his time at West Coast, Williams has already become a favourite of the ?Black and White Army? with his ability to not only play as a midfielder but also take strong marks and kick goals in attack. For the Lions back pocket Chris Johnson has been in great form, amassing a staggering 31 possessions from the back pocket last week while skipper Michael Voss remains as dominant as ever.
WHO?S NOT: Veteran Marcus Ashcroft, a model of consistency throughout his long career, managed just three possessions against the Kangaroos last week and it was a major surprise to see him start the game on the bench and spent much of the night there. The Magpies have hardly got a player out of form and their even contribution across the board has been one of the reasons for their great start to the season although the loss of Tarkyn Lockyer will cut deep as he is not only one of the Magpies? best midfielders but also takes many of their kick-ins and can play in attack.
KEY MATCH-UP: Chris Tarrant (Collingwood) v Mal Michael (Brisbane). If Collingwood is to inflict a rare home defeat on the Lions then Tarrant will have to play a big one in attack. Tarrant is often accused of looking as though he is going through the motions but when he is hot he is near unstoppable as was the case last week when he took 16 marks against the Cats. If he produces a similar game against the Lions, the Magpies will have a great chance but Michael has been a model of consistency at full-back for the Lions since moving up north from Collingwood. However Michael had a rare quiet game against the Roos last week and the Magpies will be looking to capitalise if he is down on form again this Thursday.
ALL-TIME CLASSIC: These two clubs did not have a history of great match-ups until last year?s grand final which was one of the best grand finals of the past 20 years. In fact Brisbane did not beat Collingwood in their first 11 meetings with the then Bears taking six years to beat the Magpies from the time they joined the competition in 1987. But following last year?s epic grand final matches between these two clubs are now amongst the most eagerly awaited on the AFL calendar.
WE THINK: As impressive as Collingwood has been over the first three weeks of the season beating Brisbane at the Gabba remains the toughest task in the AFL. The loss of Lockyer makes the Magpies? task that more difficult and after last week?s shock draw against the Kangaroos the reigning premiers will be itching to bounce back. The likely return of Lynch and Brown further strengthens Brisbane?s side and in front of what is certain to be another sold-out Gabba the Lions should prevail. Brisbane by 21 points.
