AFL Round 5

[Cartman88]

Opening odds (from Centrebet):

25 Apr 14:10 AEST
COLLINGWOOD 4.25
ESSENDON 1.20

26 Apr 19:45 AEST
BULLDOGS 2.10
MELBOURNE 1.68

27 Apr 14:10 AEST
HAWTHORN 2.05
RICHMOND 1.70

27 Apr 15:40 AEST
WEST COAST 4.20
BRISBANE 1.20

27 Apr 19:10 AEST
ST KILDA 4.25
SYDNEY 1.20

27 Apr 19:30 AEST
ADELAIDE 2.60
PORT ADELAIDE 1.45

28 Apr 13:10 AEST
GEELONG 1.53
FREMANTLE 2.40

28 Apr 14:10 AEST
CARLTON 2.00
KANGAROOS 1.75

 

[Cartman88]

Opening odds (from Qld TAB):

25 Apr 14:10 AEST
COLLINGWOOD 4.50
ESSENDON 1.16

26 Apr 19:45 AEST
BULLDOGS 2.20
MELBOURNE 1.60

27 Apr 14:10 AEST
HAWTHORN 2.00
RICHMOND 1.72

27 Apr 15:40 AEST
WEST COAST 4.25
BRISBANE 1.18

27 Apr 19:10 AEST
ST KILDA 5.75
SYDNEY 1.10

27 Apr 19:30 AEST
ADELAIDE 2.70
PORT ADELAIDE 1.40

28 Apr 13:10 AEST
GEELONG 1.50
FREMANTLE 2.40

28 Apr 14:10 AEST
CARLTON 1.72
KANGAROOS 2.00

 

[Cartman88]

Looking at the early markets my initial ATS leans are towards:

Hawthorn
Brisbane
Port Adelaide
Fremantle

Back later in the week once I have had a decent look at all the games. Note that Round 5 starts on Thursday this week due a public holiday.

 

[MrChristo]

Be careful this weekend guys....the weather may be a factor.

Looks like it will be raining for Essendon/Collingwood.
Still wet for Richmond/Hawthorn.

This may nullify Hawthorns height advantage. Of course, it may not

Also anather HOT one forecast for Perth on Saturday...Then again if anyone can handle it, it will be Brisbane. Remember it's over 4 hours plane trip, tho

Primus is doubtful for Port.

The only bet I'll be having for the weekend is Melbourne -8.5.
Playing good football and Bulldogs struggling. Bit of a let down after last weeks so-close v. Brisbane.

Good luck with what-ever we all take.

I'll be at Essendon/Collingwood and Bulldogs/Melbourne games.

Gunna be tough on Friday night...Sitting in Bulldogs members area (of which I am one!) and barracking loudly for Melbourne

Oh, well....Have to pay for my membership somehow

 

[gloveski]

year to date 7-7

Essendon -29.5
melbourne -8.5
Tigers -4.5

 

[Cartman88]

Essendon vs Collingwood

Each year on Anzac Day these two teams clash. In recent years Essendon have generally started a heavy fav and whilst Collingwood rise to the occasion the record book shows Essendon have won the past 7 matches by an average of 18 points.

Essendon overall have been in good form this season and they currently sit 2nd on the ladder behind Brisbane. They will be aware this is a danger game and will not lack any motivation. Their big advantage is upfront and the forward line is certainly going to test Collingwood. They also have the advantage of any extra day to prepare for what is basically a mid-week match.

Collingwood will be boosted by their impressive win over Hawthorn last week but will really miss Tarrant who was suspended and Cummings who is still on the injured list. On the positive side Molloy and O?Bree return to the side.

I expect Essendon to win fairly comfortably but I have a bit much respect for Collingwood to give them 30 points start. The prospect of a wet MCG could also keep the scores closer.

No play for me on this one.

 

[Cartman88]

Melbourne vs Wstn Bulldogs

Historically the Wstn Bulldogs have dominated Melbourne winning 6 out of the past 7 clashes although that one Melbourne win came last time they met.

Melbourne are a very hard side to follow but generally when they start the season well they have the ability to keep momentum. They are currently 3rd and when you look at their next 5-6 games they mainly meet the lower sides and have a big opportunity to be in or near the Top 4 mid season. They have looked very good to date led by Powell in the midfield and Neitz up forward.

Wstn Bulldogs are 0-4 for the season but overall there form has not been that bad. They have been competitive in most matches and last week almost caused an upset against Brisbane. They have simply not been kicking enough goals (12 per game average to date) to win and will look for Grant to lead from the front.

I have to stick with the form side here.

Playing Melbourne ?7.5

 

[beast2]

Year to Date: 8-5 (61%)

Round 5 Plays

Western Bulldogs +9.5 d Melbourne
Adelaide +17.5 d Port Adelaide
Kangaroos -7.5 d Carlton

Craig

 

[Cartman88]

Hawthorn vs Richmond

Hawthorn have won 3 of the past 4 clashes against Richmond but prior to that Richmond had won the previous 6 clashes.

At the start of the season this would have seemed a great match between two teams vying for Top 4 spots. Currently these sides are 12th and 14th and a win here is crucial for both clubs.

Hawthorn have really under achieved this year to date infact they have won only 5 out of 16 quarters so far. Week 1 they were beaten by Melbourne. Week 2 they lost by over 100 pts in Brisbane. Week 3 they snuck home against Freo but in many ways were lucky to win. Week 4 they went down to Collingwood. Number 1 draft pick Hodges makes his senior debut today and rookie ruckman Campbell comes into the side also. Smith (injured) and Rehn (dropped) are the main exclusions.

Richmond are sitting 2-2 for the year but would be disappointed with how they have performed overall. They have had one days less rest and have had to contend with a long flight back from Perth after a humiliating loss to Fremantle. Richardson has been named but doubt remains whether he will play. There is also a serious question mark over Gasper and he would be a huge loss if he does not play.

The MCG will still be slippery and whilst some say this will suit Richmond I personally think it will slightly favour Hawthorn.

The bookies have the line about right on this game however I have a strong gut feeling that Hawthorn will bounce back today. I am going to take Hawthorn with the bonus of a few points head start.

Playing Hawthorn +5.5

 

[Cartman88]

West Coast vs Brisbane

West Coast have played better than expected so far this year currently sitting 2-2 including a 1 pt loss to Collingwood. The reality is though that they do have a weak playing list and they will really miss McIntosh (injured) and Matera (suspended).

Brisbane have won their last 20 games and the AFL record of 23 consecutive wins is well in their sights. They have publically said they are focusing a week at a time but also realise what it would mean to break such a long time record. They are resting Lynch and there has to be some doubt whether Voss can play the whole match. The depth at Brisbane is amazing when you consider Brown Power Keating and Bolton are back into the side this week.

Brisbane are way superior all over the paddock. I will back them to win by more than 5 goals and cover the spread. The only word of warning is that last year they travelled to Perth in a very similar situation and only won by 22 points.

Playing Brisbane ?28.5

 

[Cartman88]

St Kilda vs Sydney

St Kilda started the season with a fairly average playing list and going into todays match they are missing 9 of their 10 best players. No Harvey. No Everitt. No Loewe. The list goes on. Last week they went down to Geelong by 122 points and again they will be forced to put a very young and inexperienced team on the field. St Kilda are really going to struggle.

Sydney have been up and down but after last weeks dramatic win against the Kangaroos they now sit 2-2 and confidence will be increasing. The side is basially unchanged from last week.

I expect Sydney to win this match easily but in Melbourne I can?t confidently back them to cover the 46.5 pt spread.

No Play

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Season to date: 7-9

Like Port Adelaide -19.5 in the Derby
Fremantle +15.5 against an over-rated Geelong
and my Kangaroos -6.5 to comfortably get home against the Blues

I came across an e-mail during the week concerning a rumour about a prominent Hawthorn backman about to get in some strife with the boys in blue. It stated that it could be career ending!! Interested to know if anyone else has heard it?
Anyway good luck with whatever your on...

 

[Cartman88]

Adelaide vs Port Adelaide

The local South Aust derby always creates plenty of interest and with the sides placed 4th and 5th on the ladder it takes on even more meaning.

Adelaide are 3-1 at the moment with their only loss coming against Essendon where they remained competitive. McLeod (suspended) is a mammoth loss which Adelaide will find hard to cover.

Port Adelaide are still in my opinion the 3rd best team in the comp and over the past fortnight they have started showing it with convincing wins over St Kilda and Carlton. When momentum is with them Port Adelaide can put points on the board very quickly. I am still awaiting confirmation whether Primus will play (at last report he was rated a 60% chance).

I am sticking with Port Adelaide as I think they are the classier side. This play will obviously become stronger if Primus starts.

Playing Port Adelaide ?15.5

 

[Cartman88]

Summary of Plays:

Melbourne -7.5
Hawthorn +5.5
Brisbane -28.5
Port Adelaide -15.5

I am leaning towards Carlton and Freo in the Sunday matches but I will have a further look at those tomorrow.

 

[Cartman88]

PAWAQATSI,

I haven't heard or read anything about any Hawthorn players in strife. Will watch with interest and see if anything comes out over the next few days.

 

[TIME TO MAKE $$$]

What a shocker in both games, Sydney draws and Brisbane goes down in defeat. How can a team favored by 43 points draw??

There was a God watching ove me as at the last minute I wagered $4550.00 to win $1000.00 on Brisbane to win the match, but I guess due to being late, my wager was not accepted as I made the wager at 1:42 AM, the match started at 1:40AM. Boy, do I have a big smile on my face, this just goes to prove that nothing is certain in sports wagering.

 

[beast2]

A great match but a disappointing result as my team Adelaide are run over in the final quarter by Port but at least they covered the spread for me.

I am making my last play of the weekend a double play:

Kangaroos -7.5 d Carlton (Now becomes a Double Play)

Craig

 

[Cartman88]

Playing the following today:

Fremantle +15.5 vs Geelong (2 units)
Carlton +8.5 vs Kangaroos

 

[MrChristo]

Kangaroos -7.5.

McKernan v. Portor in the ruck is one of the biggest mis-matches you will ever see on a sporting field!

Carlton came out and admitted during the week that it "wasn't the best thing to do, but seemed like a good idea at the time"


They are of course 100% right!

The Kanga's get way too much ball today and win by 20+

 

[MrChristo]

Well.....I was half right!

It was Burton who destroyed McKernan in the ruck.