Hi Guys,
Here goes for Round 6 of the AFL. The odds I have listed are the standard odds on offer with most books although as always there are variations if you shop around.
KANGAROOS $3.00 (+21.5) VS RICHMOND $1.35 (-21.5)
COLONIAL STADIUM FRI 7.40PM AEST
Richmond scored a nice away win against the West Coast last week while the Kangaroos lost to an improving Adelaide side. Richmond should take care of the Kangaroos who are missing Wayne Carey due to suspension. I favour Richmond to cover the spread but not enough to be confident.
ST KILDA $2.05 (+5.5) VS SYDNEY $1.75 (-5.5)
COLONIAL STADIUM SAT 2.10PM AEST
St Kilda have impressed me in patches this year and they pushed Carlton for most of last weeks game. I think coach Malcolm Blight nearly has his combinations right and St Kilda are not far off putting everything together. Sydney started the year 3-0 but only against Adelaide West Coast and Kangaroos. They were then hammered by Essendon and were brave in defeat against Melbourne. Sydney are again affected by injuries which makes it even harder for them to win away from home. Also interesting to note last year Sydney were 3-0 before losing 5 in a row.
Playing St Kilda +5.5
FREMANTLE $2.20 (+8.5) VS MELBOURNE $1.65 (-8.5)
SUBIACO SAT 7.40PM AEST
I have no doubt that Melbourne are the better side here and they will be confident following their defeat of Sydney. Fremantle looked good for 85% of last weeks game and had Brisbane in real trouble at the GABBA before that bizarre last 15 mins where Brisbane were kicking a goal nearly every minute. I don?t like betting against Fremantle at Subiaco unless I am really keen on the other side, and I don?t rate Melbourne a top side just yet. I think there are better games for betting this week.
PORT ADELAIDE $1.22 (-27.5) VS WSTN BULLDOGS $4.00 (+27.5)
FOOTBALL PARK SAT 7.40PM AEST
I like the look of Port Adelaide this year. They won the Ansett Cup impressively. They are 4-1 for the year. Their only loss was against Essendon where they showed some fight in the final quarter and last week they were way too good for Geelong. But I don?t think there is any value in backing them at $1.22 or ?27.5 against a solid Wstn Bulldogs outfit. I am not prepared to bet against Port Adelaide in this one either but I can understand if others see good value in backing Wstn Bulldogs at the spread.
BRISBANE $1.33 (-23.5) vs GEELONG $3.25 (+23.5)
GABBA SAT 7.40PM AEST
Brisbane have not exactly been on fire this year but they are a talented side. I think the final quarter blitz against Fremantle last week will give them plenty of momentum to carry into this game. Geelong have lost there last 3 matches and have looked fairly ordinary. Brisbane at home are capable of racking up big scores and I think they will easily account for Geelong who are making their first trip away from Melbourne for the year.
Playing Brisbane ?23.5
ESSENDON $1.10 (-42.5) VS WEST COAST $7.00 (+42.5)
COLONIAL STADIUM SUN 2.10PM AEST
The best side in the competition will hammer possibly the worst side. West Coast have lost Scott Cummings and in desperation will make some positional changes this week. Bottom line is they just can?t match up with Essendon who still have a point to prove after what has been considered a mixed start to the season. I was expecting around ?47.5 for Essendon so I am pleasantly surprised by the line of offer.
Playing Essendon -42.5
HAWTHORN $1.30 (-23.5) VS ADELAIDE $3.50 (+23.5)
YORK PARK SUN 2.10PM AEST
Every week I keep repeating how good I think Hawthorn are and every week they keep getting the cash for me. They are the only undefeated side remaining in the AFL and I do think they will beat Adelaide. I would not be at all surprised if Hawthorn cover the spread easily but I am not confident backing them at ?23.5 when Adelaide are starting to come into solid form. Adelaide have beaten Carlton and Kangaroos in the past fortnight.
COLLINGWOOD $2.10 (+5.5) VS CARLTON $1.70 (-5.5)
MCG SUN 2.15PM AEST
One of the biggest grudge matches in the AFL and can produce some unpredictable results. Bookies seem to have this one about right with Carlton slight favourites. If Carlton blow out to $1.80 or $1.85 I would consider backing them but no bets on this one at the moment. Will have another look on Sunday.
SUMMARY OF PLAYS
St Kilda +5.5
Brisbane -23.5
Essendon ?42.5
Good luck to everyone !!!!
Here goes for Round 6 of the AFL. The odds I have listed are the standard odds on offer with most books although as always there are variations if you shop around.
KANGAROOS $3.00 (+21.5) VS RICHMOND $1.35 (-21.5)
COLONIAL STADIUM FRI 7.40PM AEST
Richmond scored a nice away win against the West Coast last week while the Kangaroos lost to an improving Adelaide side. Richmond should take care of the Kangaroos who are missing Wayne Carey due to suspension. I favour Richmond to cover the spread but not enough to be confident.
ST KILDA $2.05 (+5.5) VS SYDNEY $1.75 (-5.5)
COLONIAL STADIUM SAT 2.10PM AEST
St Kilda have impressed me in patches this year and they pushed Carlton for most of last weeks game. I think coach Malcolm Blight nearly has his combinations right and St Kilda are not far off putting everything together. Sydney started the year 3-0 but only against Adelaide West Coast and Kangaroos. They were then hammered by Essendon and were brave in defeat against Melbourne. Sydney are again affected by injuries which makes it even harder for them to win away from home. Also interesting to note last year Sydney were 3-0 before losing 5 in a row.
Playing St Kilda +5.5
FREMANTLE $2.20 (+8.5) VS MELBOURNE $1.65 (-8.5)
SUBIACO SAT 7.40PM AEST
I have no doubt that Melbourne are the better side here and they will be confident following their defeat of Sydney. Fremantle looked good for 85% of last weeks game and had Brisbane in real trouble at the GABBA before that bizarre last 15 mins where Brisbane were kicking a goal nearly every minute. I don?t like betting against Fremantle at Subiaco unless I am really keen on the other side, and I don?t rate Melbourne a top side just yet. I think there are better games for betting this week.
PORT ADELAIDE $1.22 (-27.5) VS WSTN BULLDOGS $4.00 (+27.5)
FOOTBALL PARK SAT 7.40PM AEST
I like the look of Port Adelaide this year. They won the Ansett Cup impressively. They are 4-1 for the year. Their only loss was against Essendon where they showed some fight in the final quarter and last week they were way too good for Geelong. But I don?t think there is any value in backing them at $1.22 or ?27.5 against a solid Wstn Bulldogs outfit. I am not prepared to bet against Port Adelaide in this one either but I can understand if others see good value in backing Wstn Bulldogs at the spread.
BRISBANE $1.33 (-23.5) vs GEELONG $3.25 (+23.5)
GABBA SAT 7.40PM AEST
Brisbane have not exactly been on fire this year but they are a talented side. I think the final quarter blitz against Fremantle last week will give them plenty of momentum to carry into this game. Geelong have lost there last 3 matches and have looked fairly ordinary. Brisbane at home are capable of racking up big scores and I think they will easily account for Geelong who are making their first trip away from Melbourne for the year.
Playing Brisbane ?23.5
ESSENDON $1.10 (-42.5) VS WEST COAST $7.00 (+42.5)
COLONIAL STADIUM SUN 2.10PM AEST
The best side in the competition will hammer possibly the worst side. West Coast have lost Scott Cummings and in desperation will make some positional changes this week. Bottom line is they just can?t match up with Essendon who still have a point to prove after what has been considered a mixed start to the season. I was expecting around ?47.5 for Essendon so I am pleasantly surprised by the line of offer.
Playing Essendon -42.5
HAWTHORN $1.30 (-23.5) VS ADELAIDE $3.50 (+23.5)
YORK PARK SUN 2.10PM AEST
Every week I keep repeating how good I think Hawthorn are and every week they keep getting the cash for me. They are the only undefeated side remaining in the AFL and I do think they will beat Adelaide. I would not be at all surprised if Hawthorn cover the spread easily but I am not confident backing them at ?23.5 when Adelaide are starting to come into solid form. Adelaide have beaten Carlton and Kangaroos in the past fortnight.
COLLINGWOOD $2.10 (+5.5) VS CARLTON $1.70 (-5.5)
MCG SUN 2.15PM AEST
One of the biggest grudge matches in the AFL and can produce some unpredictable results. Bookies seem to have this one about right with Carlton slight favourites. If Carlton blow out to $1.80 or $1.85 I would consider backing them but no bets on this one at the moment. Will have another look on Sunday.
SUMMARY OF PLAYS
St Kilda +5.5
Brisbane -23.5
Essendon ?42.5
Good luck to everyone !!!!
