Yeah, this week the Cartguru had similar thoughts to me, so hardly any need to say anything, was ambivalent about Brisbane, but well done there sir.
Megasports actually had 41.5 on Essendon which was cool. SportsTAB had 47.5 too Cartman, but I didn't think a middle was too likely, and it was 1.80. Typical run over the top by them (Lloyd had 10, yeesh) and the cash cow continues to be so. Power rating was 60 odd for this, and exactly the sort of game where I am much more comfortable with taking a handicap of that large size - a super team vs a crappy one on a good day wanting to kick someone - as (should we call him Super 88?
) suggested.
Nice call on the Crows, too, Anders, guess the Tassie thing helped them a bit in the end there. I was not brave enough for this one. In hindsight taking Hawthorn, Port and Brisbane just to win not necessarily a bad thing, do that reasonably often, but not too useful posting 'hey bet these 1.30 guys to win'
Looked like said Croweaters would get kicked, early, but held and obviously came back a bit in the last quarter.
Made one of those five minutes before leaving the game decisions on Collingwood, too, so didn't have time to say anything.
Crappy game, the Roulettes and Barnsey were good though - planes diving out of the sun over the G, very cool.
This is after the fact, though, but might be worth talking about what I was thinking at the time, plus a few after game comments as well :-
Thinking was this though - weather was bloody good, and last time with something like that it was a Collingwood massacre. Would not have bet them if it was iffy. Also, more team speed, if you want to use an American term. When I got there I was even happier, the surface of the G looked like a carpet, pretty much best condition I think I have ever seen it in.
Other quick thoughts was that neither team has any key position players of note, except Whitnall and the sort of Tarrant - and Whitnall had been thrown around a bit recently due to zero key defenders. Also, don't think Glenn Manton is as focused on football as he should be, and not good enough either necessarily to be on the best player (except vs Essendon). Key 'Utility' Beaumont had a down day as well.
Also, big occasion game and if Collingwood lost they were close to toast, so players would have been more scared for them I think.
That being said, still a bit lucky, as Carlton were off their game, a lot of horrible errors and some basic ball handling and marking stuff too, Anders, so you were a bit unlucky with that one, although Carlton did not look like winning for most of it. Collingwood was quite wayward to start with, and were attacking about twice as much, so could have killed the game and been 7-8 goals up if accurate early.
Also, bizarre decision to not use Houlihan more, boy is perhaps the fastest in the AFL, and on that carpet, perfect day for him. When he came on more later in the game, is when Carlton made their run (and were actually ahead by 3 points, pretty much the second time in the game, the first quarter for a bit, and then, briefly.) You can't say it was to big an occasion when played important role vs Essendon, so this one baffles me. Particularly as Carlton pretty lacking in speed in general.
Mansfield had a shot for goal, out on the full, another miss, and Franchina (who admittedly is a horrible kick) kicked into the man on the mark from 40 out. My wife asked me 'is he a good kick' and I said, no, crappy, but I was pretty horrified with that little effort - I would have been dragged in under 10s for that. However, he was doing it to try and make the distance, it looked like, but geez. So even a couple of behinds missed would have been useful in the context of the game.
However, fact remains Carlton is lacking in firepower still. Again, this time a dead average score, due to perfect conditions - a 12 goal type team will find it very hard to win. Kouta started at full forward (he still can't jump, it looks like, hopefully one day he recovers, so that move does make sense). They tried to get him into a fight at the start of the game, didn't work, but it was all downhill after the first unpaid push in the back. Delivery too him was very ordinary, as well, given the fact that he could not jump.
Collingwood stuck to a game plan pretty much, and actually delivered the ball to Rocca who kept his mind on the game and played well (bets against are in trouble when this blue moon occurrence happens). Due to the weather not much zone stacking as such, either - and presumably Malthouse had figured out that Carlton did not have the firepower to worry about it, better off having 'runners' positioned in several spots to feed the ball through, rather than using them defensively, which was pretty much what they did all day, except for the last few minutes defending a slight lead. Interesting positioning by Malthouse and company, certainly, it was a bit different.
They did this quite well, racking up 100 marks or close enough, which is very very high for Collingwood recently. The Blues had more kicks, (which is generally who wins the game Anders, as a basic stats note for the newcomer), being the most important thing - hence the error rate a problem. They also had some semblance of key defense, with Wakelin and Richardson doing fairly well.
About time to look at some team stats for seriously after a few games now, but Collingwood's, bar marking, were average. Every other year they have slumped they started out average and crashed to the 160ish level (which was where the Crows were last year) so next game will be very interesting - unlikely a Malthouse team gets that bad though I think. Much more even team effort from Collingwood, with Buckley very good, but not relied on to do everything. Still can't believe I saw Anthony Rocca do something though.
Another note, for those of you that have never been inside an AFL club or worked with one, I picked up the Australian weekend edition and has the start of a Patrick Smith article series on spending a week with Collingwood, which is quite good so far.
So, be interested to talk to anyone that sees any of the Hawthorn game, to see how they went. Looks like Essendon only has two worries left (although they get the wobbles against Carlton sometimes, as we have seen), Hawthorn (who have the key position cattle Carlton doesn't), and Richmond - ??
