AFL Round 9

[Cartman88]

Hi Guys,

When I had a quick look at the games earlier in the week, nothing really stood out as a great bet in Round 9. I still can?t find any great value but I do think there a couple of matches worth playing.

Fri May 25 at MCG 7:40pm AEST
Kangaroos $2.60 (+16.5) vs Carlton $1.50 (-16.5)

Playing Carlton ?16.5

Traditionally this is a fairly close game with the Kangaroos having the better of recent matches (winning 6 from 7). Both teams are starting to run into a bit of form, but the Kangaroos main problem is their inability to kick match winning scores. They racked up 100 points for the first time this year in last weeks win over St Kilda. I still have a question mark over how they are going to cope against stonger sides. Carlton are one of the strong sides and their best players are all starting to hit their straps now. Carlton were very impressive in hammering Brisbane last week and if they repeat that performance they should cover the spread here.

Sat May 26 at MCG 2:10pm AEST
Collingwood $1.35 (-22.5) vs St Kilda $3.20 (+22.5)

Playing Collingwood ?22.5

Collingwood come into this game following a wonderful away victory over Port Adelaide. Collingwood are presently 4-4 but as I have mentioned in previous posts they have had a tough draw to date. They have played Hawthorn Fremantle Wstn Bdogs Richmond Essendon Carlton Kangaroos and Port Adelaide. The 4 games they lost were by less than 15 points and with their style of footy they are capable of winning by a big margin in my opinion. They face some weaker teams over the coming weeks and will keen to use this match to build some further momentum. St Kilda have been disappointing to say the least and are 2-6 for the year. I have real concerns about their midfield (Harvey will help now that he has had a run) and their defence. Malcolm Blight is a great coach but even he is struggling to find the right formula with them. If this match goes to form then Collingwood will cover the spread.

Sat May 26 at Colonial 7:00pm AEST
Essendon $1.45 (-17.5) vs Hawthorn $2.75 (+17.5)

No Play

This promises to be the clash of the year with the two top sides facing each other. Essendon are a champion team and for that reason alone I am not going to bet against them. However they have shown they are beatable and even Melbourne gave them a fright last week. I have really rated Hawthorn since the beginning of the year and they will make it very interesting. Injuries may play a part. Essendon are missing Mercuri & Alession with Hird & Caracella in doubt. Hawthorn are missing Holland & Rawlings. Should be a great game to watch but perhaps not so good to bet on.

Sat May 26 at Subiaco 7:40pm AEST
West Coast $3.20 (+23.5) vs Wstn Bulldogs $1.35 (-23.5)

Playing Wstn Bulldogs ?23.5

West Coast are struggling and their injuries have reached crisis point. They will be forced to present a new look side which is some ways could bring some uncertainty to how the match will pan out. Wstn Bulldogs are starting to put some fair form together. The past 5 weeks have seen 3 good wins over Brisbane Melbourne & Sydney, and 2 losses against form teams Hawthorn and Port Adelaide. Subiaco is not the big advantage it has been in previous years, and I think Wstn Bulldogs will prove a bit too classy here.

Sat May 26 at GABBA 7:40pm AEST
Brisbane $1.45 (-18.5) vs Adelaide $2.75 (+18.5)

No Play

Tough game to pick here. Brisbane at home are always tough to beat and whilst they have Power back, they are missing Akermanis. Adelaide gained plenty of respect with their good win over Richmond last week, and some of their better players are showing some solid form. I really like their midfield combination of McLeod Ricciuto Goodwin and Edwards. All things considered I think the line is about right here, and no play for me.

Sun May 27 at Shell Stadium 2:10pm AEST
Geelong $2.10 (+6.5) vs Richmond $1.75 (-6.5)

No Play

Frankly I would be happy to bet against either side at the moment so it is a shame they are playing each other. Geelong have been very ordinary this year but apparently played alright against Fremantle. I didn?t get to see that game so it is slightly hard to weigh up the form. The fact they were up by 10 goals and only won by 4 goals wasn?t a positive sign. Richmond showed signs of promise early in the season but must be low on confidence after getting hammered by Essendon and then letting a good lead disappear against Adelaide in the 3rd quarter. Richardson is out for 2 weeks which is a blow, although they seem to cope without him playing. The key here is whether Richmond can bounce back, and if they do I think they will beat Geelong. But I am not tempted by the price and won?t be betting on this game.

Sun May 27 at Football Park 2:10pm AEST
Port Adelaide $1.45 (-17.5) vs Melbourne $2.75 (+17.5)

No Play

Port Adelaide had won 9 in a row at home before their loss to Collingwood last week. The general feeling now is that the way to beat Port Adelaide is to outrun and match them for pace. The injury to Primus is a real blow and I?ll guess this week could show us how much his leadership will be missed. Melbourne are 4-4 but they have only beaten weak or out of form teams to date. They gained respect with a close match against Essendon last week but I still have some concerns about them overall. They huge problems at board level may not affect the team but is can?t be helping them. I am leaning towards Port Adelaide to cover the spread here but not quite enough to back them with confidence at this stage.

Sun May 27 at SCG 2:10pm AEST
Sydney $1.28 (-23.5) vs Fremantle $3.50 (+23.5)

No Play

Sydney have lost their last 5 and Fremantle have lost all 8 matches this year so not exactly an easy game to assess. Sydney are showing signs of improvement with competitive matches against Brisbane & Wstn Bulldogs. Fremantle were not playing that badly before they were smashed by Geelong. I was really disappointed with their effort in that match. Sydney at the SCG should win but I think the line is about right here.

SUMMARY OF PLAYS:

Carlton ?16.5
Collingwood ?22.5
Wstn Bulldogs ?23.5

Good luck to everyone !!

 

[Anders]

Cartman - you're not my long lost brother by any chance?

My work is basically done for the weekend AFL-wise unless something jumps out at me; these look like the 3 best bets around.
GL pal

 

[gloveski]

I tend to agree with your picks Cartman but will add essendon at this stage aswell
Plays
Carlton-16.5
Coll'wood -22.5
Essendon -17.5
W.Bulldogs -23.5

 

[Cartman88]

Some movement with the lines for some of the games I am betting on this weekend:

Carlton -16.5 (Darwin All Sports)
Collingwood -20.5 (Darwin All Sports)
Wstn Bulldogs -20.5 (Centrebet)

Every point helps when you are betting ATS. Collingwood and Wstn Bulldogs looking even stronger now.

 

[AussieVamp2]

hawthorn might miss Hay too, so the injury situation gets pretty ugly there

might well go to this week to this one

 

[AussieVamp2]

and first thought was 'saints have a chance at this one' which is a worry, so have to look at that one more

 

[gloveski]

Revised lines for my picks
Carlton -17.5
Coll'wood -21.5
Essendon -11.5
Bulldogs -20.5

Also adding a pick 4
carlton,coll'wood'essendon,bulldogs for a price of $4.06 at centrebet

 

[Way out West]

Hey guys,

Good stuff here. I was born in Canada, but my dad was born in New Zealand, so I like to keep an eye on what happening on the other side of the world.

Olympic lines right now have:
Carlton -15.5
Collingwood -20.5
W.Bulldogs -19.5
Essendon -10.5 (gloveski)

 

[dawgball]

I don't know anything about what you guys are talking about, but this is one of the best threads I have seen in a while. This is the majority of threads looked like not too long ago.

Keep up the great team work. Good luck!

------------------
Sic 'em
dawgball

 

[Cartman88]

There seems to be a flood of money for Hawthorn in the past 48 hours and they have moved in considerably.

This sees Essendon now paying around $1.60 with some books at that is becoming a tempting price for a champion team. Rumour has it that Hird is going to play as well.

If Essendon blow out any more I will strongly consider backing them.

 

[Anders]

Hi guys - haven't had a lot of time to pore over the AFL this week so will do this day by day.
Jumping on the Blues bandwagon tonite. The Kangaroos are still pretty toothless and the improvement in recent weeks from Whitnall and Silvagni's involvement has bolstered Carlton, who have a heap of top players reaching good form like Kouta, Ratten, Bradley etc. Quality-wise, only the Bombers at their peak are classier than the Blues and they should cover here.
PLAY CARLTON -16.5

Cartman - really think Hird might play? Bombers are definitley tempting. Early leans towards the Pies, Buldogs and Adelaide but will confirm these later.
GLTA

WOW and dawgball - great to see you guys in here; feel free to visit anytime; this really is a burgeoning corner of Jack's empire

[This message has been edited by Anders (edited 05-25-2001).]

 

[AussieVamp2]

Have to agree with that I think Cartman - a goal move - and a high profile game, not Bulldogs Melbourne, so interesting

Last time that happened Essendon won by a lazy 50

 

[AussieVamp2]

just reviewed st kilda's numbers, anyone that fundamentally bad currently not sure I can recommend

also a note on the Roos - completely changed their gameplan it looks like - 104 handballs, and 144 last 2 games - 144? Think I was half my age last time that happened

 

[AussieVamp2]

So can a team that put up the superb numbers of the Blues last week take advantage of a possibly shaky new gameplan? Quite possibly you would think

If Pagan pulls this one off, wow.

Power rating would be about 22 I think, add a few more for the nonexistent Kangaroos support, so as you say, I think, Blues or the highway.

 

[beast2]

Haven't had time to do any write ups this week so here are my plays.

Plays for Round 9:
Carlton -18.5
Essendon -11.5
Sydney -20.5

Craig

[This message has been edited by beast2 (edited 05-25-2001).]

 

[Cartman88]

Originally posted by AussieVamp2:
Have to agree with that I think Cartman - a goal move - and a high profile game, not Bulldogs Melbourne, so interesting

Last time that happened Essendon won by a lazy 50

AV,

I presume you are referring to the Essendon vs Sydney game earlier this year where everyone wanted to back Sydney. I recall that I bet my house on Essendon @ $1.70 that day and it was never in doubt !!

 

[Cartman88]

Originally posted by AussieVamp2:
just reviewed st kilda's numbers, anyone that fundamentally bad currently not sure I can recommend

AV,

That is the exact reason I am betting against St Kilda this week. Collingwood fundamentally appear strong whereas St Kilda fundamentally appear weak.

Looks like a winning formula to me.

 

[Cartman88]

Originally posted by Anders:
Cartman - really think Hird might play? Bombers are definitley tempting.

Anders,

I have heard a very strong rumour that Hird will play but in all honesty I have heard it before and it has turned out to be incorrect.

If he becomes a confirmed starter then Essendon at $1.60 (possibly more) look a strong play to me.

 

[AussieVamp2]

Yes, that was the game Cartman, easy money.

Will admit to wussing it and just backing the Blues to win tonight, considered Kangaroos +18 again late but did not do it as I thought if close they might roll them later (only sort of it seems), dunno why I did, but they jumped them to start with, and looked like Pagan was going to pull something out, but nope.

Lot more wide handball from North too, again, which the Blues finally worked out in the second half.

Carlton should have won handily but their disposal by foot in the first half was horrendous, and nearly every player fell over.

Guess when they started coming back? Yep, when Ryan Houlihan came on. No freaking idea what Brittain has been upset by by this kid, unless he keeps him as a 'weapon' on the bench so to speak. Also, Michael Mansfield scored one of his long pretty left foot goals when he came on, and made no mistakes at all.

Nearly everybody in the Carlton side was slipping and sliding and falling over and dropping the ball in the first half, not Houlihan when he came on though. Perfect conditions for small skillful forwards when a bit slippery, but started with 3 tall forwards? Weird. Except McKay and Lappin - kept them in the game barely.

McKernan was decent, didn't let him go anywhere near the ruck though, very sensibly, being shithouse at it. They
started Christou on him! I know that Ang being taller gives them some more flexibility, but thats a bit ridiculous, and he promptly kicked a couple, and, of course, Silvagni was moved from full forward to McKernan's minder.

Burton was very good, handily on top of Porter to start with - which was why he was brought in, and took some useful marks around the ground.

Strange thing was, Carlton had tons of Inside 50s, but couldn't score, and North were very 'efficient' on the few times they got there, so just some good coaching I think got them that close.

Shannon Grant was not a matchwinner, so that was done.

Couple of highlights - Matty Lappin was robbed of a huge hanger. One big run by Pickett down the wing. Darren Hulme was in a 1 on 2 contest vs McKernan and someone else, whose name escaped me, won it, got the ball down the other end, and Campo scored. A classic, this one, David and the 2 goliaths. Certainly helped to lift them. He was the other guy who was very good in the first half (relative term for the Blues, but getting the ball and not falling over was that) . Campo scored a soccer goal out of the air Dwight Yorke probably would not have minded.

King was useful, McKernan was back to his usual dumb self.

Blues still have scoring problems. Kouta did not leave the ground all night and was handily contained, not marking anything - but, and this looked like the plan, battling to get his hand on the ball to tap it out one-out. Shitty lack of defensive stats won't show the class of the Kangas man Colbert on him - no spoils listed these days.
Did not give him an inch - except once, but that was out wide in a pocket anyway.

North gameplan again - more handballs than the Blues - did fall apart as was expecting.

Umpiring in general was maybe the worst I had seen this year, not helped by the atrocious playing of a lot of the players.

 

[AussieVamp2]

oh yeah ,and if wondering about the big numbers for Blakey, was pretty much loose in the backline all night, sometimes nominally on Hulme, too - so getting some marks, but Hulme had 6! Not bad for your 5 foot midget.

and Freeborn, around the ball a lot and 'holding' for them, if could not kick.

Adam Simpson pretty handy for the Roos as well.

Other strange thing was Bradley was running around in the last 2 quarters in his own right half back flank paddock with no opponent - clever plan to get him free all the time, or ordinary defending/coaching - then again, he's a fair player still.

Interesting sign of Lappin's maturing as a footballer, Pickett was on him later - didn't even flinch when he was coming at him from behind - whereas Massie wimped a contest early in the same situation and got dragged.

So, battle of two teams who can't score, who failed the most, lost, but on the Inside 50 story should perhaps have been 15 goals to 10, much screwing up done here.

The 100 gamer types - Burton was better - good move to put him in, but Whitnall kicked the goal at the end that put Carlton 8 points up for the second time in the last quarter so was chaired off. Not bad to have 100 up at 21. Scary, even. Seems that he does not want to have shots from around 50 at goal at the moment, whether that is instruction or not, I am not sure - strange when they are struggling to score a lot, too, as he is a great kick - some sort of leg issue we don't know about?

Anyway, for Kangaroos new gameplan to work have to retool that side somewhat, and actually get some forwards to lead, too, something Rocca is notorious for not doing. Was a couple of Lange sightings, always thought he was useful, so maybe they should use him more.