AFL Systems week #1

[PAWAQATSI]

Last season the "Express" system plays started slow before cranking up as the season progressed. An average 14 - 9 at the end of the Home and Away but finished up 18 - 10 after the finals.
Playing with just a couple grand bankroll this time 'round and only playing 10% per selection, compounding.

Two 'Express' plays qualified to kick off this season's system

Carlton +10.5 versus Sydney @ $1.95 on Saturday night at the Dome.

Kangaroos ML versus Collingwood @ $2.00 on Easter Monday also at the Dome.

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Last season my new 'Hybrid' version started slow at 4 - 4 before I tossed it out. It then went on a 10 - 1 streak to finish 14 - 5. Needless to say I won't be bailing out on it this time around if it gets off to a slow start!!

10% per pick rolling over once again.

Three teams qualify this week....all look like "no brainers"!! Time will tell.

Geelong Over 15.5 pts versus Hawthorn @ $1.22
Third game in a row at home for the Cats. They have "pasted" two former AFL "powers" in the last 2 weeks without a problem. This will get very ugly for the Hawks.....very quickly!!

West Coast Over 15.5 versus Richmond @ $1.18
The Tigers last two trips out west had them belted by 52 & 37 pts. Needless to say...they have another hard night ahead of them!!

Western Bulldogs Over 15.5 versus Essendon @ $2.05
The Doggies are a lean, mean..scoring machine. The Bombers won't keep up with them.


Lets get this thing up and running...... :box2:

:burnout :burnout :burnout :burnout

 

[pharlap]

Just wondering whether you could let us know what odds these bets are going off at, as I cant find these lines with my books (those in the hybrid system I mean). I assume the Geelong and West Coast bets in your hybrid system are pretty skinny odds seeing as though the line is 40 points + in both games.

Cheers, and good luck.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Yeah those two are skinny indeed pharlap. I was going to post the updated prices before gametime in each match as they can obviously fluctuate over the weekend.

Because of this it is pointless to name all the prices this far out. I must make it clear that these bets are placed one at a time rolling the accumulated bankroll over into each game over the course of the round.

I will edit the original post now for the immediate prices available, but I would expect that some will change as each game approaches.

 

[pharlap]

OK. Thanks for the info and all the best.

 

[MrChristo]

Yeah, best of luck Pawa...

...can't for the life of me see why your boys keep popping up tho!!

Pies in a canter

 

[InSpades]

Carlton +10.5 versus Sydney @ $1.95 on Saturday night at the Dome.

Kangaroos ML versus Collingwood @ $2.00 on Easter Monday also at the Dome.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Last season my new 'Hybrid' version started slow at 4 - 4 before I tossed it out. It then went on a 10 - 1 streak to finish 14 - 5. Needless to say I won't be bailing out on it this time around if it gets off to a slow start!!

10% per pick rolling over once again.

Three teams qualify this week....all look like "no brainers"!! Time will tell.

Geelong Over 15.5 pts versus Hawthorn @ $1.22
Third game in a row at home for the Cats. They have "pasted" two former AFL "powers" in the last 2 weeks without a problem. This will get very ugly for the Hawks.....very quickly!!

West Coast Over 15.5 versus Richmond @ $1.18
The Tigers last two trips out west had them belted by 52 & 37 pts. Needless to say...they have another hard night ahead of them!!

Western Bulldogs Over 15.5 versus Essendon @ $2.05
The Doggies are a lean, mean..scoring machine. The Bombers won't keep up with them.

Where do I get the "Over 15.5" lines?

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Yeah, best of luck Pawa...

...can't for the life of me see why your boys keep popping up tho!!

Pies in a canter

Christo.........Get Fu**ed!!! :thefinger
I threw another hook in there somewhere but you didn't bite?!! Have another read!!
Man....you really got it in for my Roos haven't ya!!

IS.......I can get the "Over 15.5pts" or "tri-bet" betting option at two Aussie books down here. I have noticed the bigger books don't list it as an option unfortunately. Unless someone else has seen it at a book that I haven't :shrug:

Globalsportsbet.com.au is one of the locals I use. **Mods...feel free to wipe this if I'm out of place posting it**

 

[InSpades]

Globalsportsbet.com.au is one of the locals I use. **Mods...feel free to wipe this if I'm out of place posting it**

Do they have a good reputation for paying people?
Is my money safe there?

IS

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Do they have a good reputation for paying people?
Is my money safe there?

IS

I've used em fo a couple years and have never had any dramas from em.

Aussie books are regulated heavily by the government so they are safe and ligit.

They aren't on an island out in the Carribean!!! :mj07:

 

[bombercoops]

Good to see the system up and running paw! See how it produces in its' opening week this year! Dons can't keep up with the scoring power of the dogs you reckon! Lmao! If we come out and start the game as we did against Sydney, we may kick 20-25 goals on that short doggy back-line! Thoughts on this game C? Should be a high scoring game at the dome on sunday.
Saints looked better last night against the lions who we can now say have officially slumped from being one of the power houses in the AFL- gotta love it!
Pies will have too much for the Gold Coast Roos on easter monday paw!
Pies >39.5 $2.60 lol! :sadwave:

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Pies will have too much for the Gold Coast Roos on easter monday paw!
Pies >39.5 $2.60 lol! :sadwave:

:142slap:

 

[bombercoops]

HeHe! Thought I may have milked you for a bit more of a response on that one mate. I reckon the monday game shapes up as almost a toss of the coin kinda game- not sold on either side. Christo, will be sweating out our dons/dogs game this sunday while sipping on a corona at a beach bar in thailand! Either way, I can guarentee you I'll be slotting the winning goal thru the uprights come the end of the evening! :grins: :yup

 

[MrChristo]

Either way, I can guarentee you I'll be slotting the winning goal thru the uprights come the end of the evening!

LMAO!

Mate, Sydney and Brisbane have both shown their 'true' form now...I know Richmond and Melbourne aren't the best of the best either, but do you really think the likes of Campo, Watson, an under-done Peverill/Hird, and two unfit Johnsons will be able to run with the Dogs all day??

Not to mention Ryder and Bolton carrying the ruck all day!! lol!!

You might need to score a lot of goals early, 'cause I'm fairly certain only one side will be scoring them after HT

Pawa, I watched last years rd. 19 meeting again today...
...Not only did Collingwood have Rocca and Tarrrant out...Fraser was out too, leaving Fanning and Jason Cloke rucking all day!!...and...Buckley was about 70% fit and spend all day at FF...and...Wakelin was about 40%! Had a HUGE strap on his groin, not to mention he landed on his head early ion the third...and...Didak spent the whole second half off with an injury!!...AND...Collingwood were still 18 points up with 3 minutes to play after Fanning and Buckley both missed reasonably easy shots...The Kangas somehow managed 4 very late goals to pinch it.

The more I look, the more it stands out as bet of the week...and that's not a stir

Hopefully the weather holds up tomorrow so the Catters can get the bickies for us both :thumb:

 

[InSpades]

This question is for any Aussie Rules Punters,

Which is a better bet?
Price
Western Bulldogs -11.5 1.97

Western Bulldogs -10.5 1.91


It seems the laying the extra point is worth the lower price.

IS

 

[bombercoops]

IS- lay the extra point my friend!

Christo, this has to be the most confident I've seen you in regard to your dogs in quite some time. I also have a feeling that my dons may be in for a lengthy afternoon tomorrow but be prepared for a spray if its all red and black after half time. lol!

3-1

This week:
Melbourne +18.5
Sydney -11.5

gl gents

 

[InSpades]

Hawthorne puts the wood to Geelong. UGH!

:dizzy:

Going to bed. Hopefully I wake up an tomorrow and see that Carlton came up with a cover.

:bed:

IS

 

[pharlap]

Just to confuse the issue for you IS.....I would definately say that the $1.97 at minus 11.5 is the far better value. It's a 6% difference in return, and while I dont have the figures in front of me, I'd be very surprised if a game of this nature is 6% more likely to finish with the favourites winning by 11 points or more rather than 12 points or more. It's 1 or 2 percent tops.

Of course this may be the occassion where the Dogs win by 11, but the long term value is definately with the $1.97 at -11.5.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Hawthorn 101 defeated Geelong 49 :scared

Red hot fave gets smacked by the big dog!! LMAO

All ya can do is shake ya head!! :shrug:

Carlton and West Coast are next up.

 

[MrChristo]

Geelong v. Kangas...win by 69.
Geelong v. Hawthorn...lose by 52........121 point difference.

Collingwood v. Hawthorn...win by 35...
...therefore, by simple logic, Collingwood will win on Monday by exactly 156 points.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

If there was such thing as "simple logic" Christo........we'd all be millionaires!!!! :nono: