AFL Week 3

[bombercoops]

Well, I guess the train is on the tracks and is getting ready to depart. Sitting up front pawa so that I can take in all the marvellous views if that suits.
Mr C, you said that Adealide is one of the teams that you think will be solid to bet AGAINST in the following weeks but what do you think of them getting more than 4 goals this week at freo? Freo's record at home in recent seasons has been solid and i know the crows look to be struggling at the present but if they can find some sought of form this week IMO, they can no doubt win this game and easily cover the +24.5 spread. Interested to know your thoughts on this one. Obviously can't tell just how bad they are playing considering I have not seen them play due to the lack of televised games in Texas, but definitely leaning towards them at the minute. Few other games look appealing also but will wait to see team line ups.
Just noticed the dons getting a goal against the coasters at home and feel that if they are to turn their season around, this has to be the week to do it. Like them in this situation if Hird and lloyd make an appearance and don't get rubber out. In the form the saints are in, don't mind them giving up 3 goals to the tigers also.

 

[MrChristo]

I have not seen them play due to the lack of televised games in Texas

Waiting patiently to see what PAWAmech throws up this week as well, bomber!
To be honest I thought the Freo -24 line is a bit of a gift for Freo. Carey is gone, Ricciuto and McLeod both struggling badly...Really like the Dockers to cover this one.
In fact, if my arm was twisted I say it was going to be a fav's weekend.
Kanga's -20 looks appealing, and so does Port -26.

Lloyd is OUT for you blokes, bomber. Got 2 weeks. Tough to take West Coast as away fav's tho. (But I think I will! )
Agree that Richmond +18.5 looks a good spot for them, and (depending on team news) Geelong +36.5 looks generous on a ground where they have a surprisingly good record....Would obviously want Graham, Sanderson, Milburn etc. back in the team.

Initial (boring) betting thought of this week is a simple old multi... Brisbane/Kangas/Sydney/Port Freo...@ ~3.10. Tempted by West Coast tho.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Guy's......I'm going to climb up onto this box and yell it out to ya!!
:director: Get on the Roos minus the 20 points start!

My boys destroyed Carlton in the last game last year by 100+ pts and We have only got better. Carlton's off-season recruiting has not helped them much and I simply can't see them getting within 30 of the "rampaging roos". This one is too easy!

Like the Saints also to beat Richmond by more than 3 goals. They 'touched 'em up' in round 19 last season by 80 pts and they are a genuine top 4 team now. The Tigers just won't have it in them to stick with the Saints for a whole game.

2 good picks me thinks!

Bomber... I think their are easier games than the Freo / Crows one!
I'm with Christo on the multis. Some easy winners to stack up this week.


Some 'shocking' Express news to follow.......

 

[MrChristo]

Lloyd back in!

Got his two week suspension overturned on appeal this morning.
Can't take West Coast now. Should be a great game to watch!

 

[beast2]

Year to date: 4-2 (66%)

Brisbane -29.5
Brisbane were awesome against Adelaide and will definitely give the premiership a shake again. I feel Brisbane will want to prove this with a convincing win over Collingwood.

Sorry, I know I am posting after the start but was unable to access the site earlier.

Current Score: Brisbane 53 Collingwood 44 Half Time

Will be back with analysis for the rest of the round later.

Craig

 

[MrChristo]

Good call, beast.

I couldn't get onto the site earlier either.

Ended up taking the multi I suggested earlier...paying 3.12. Played it for 2 units. Hopefully there shouldn't be to many problems.

The only spread I have my eye on atm is Port -26.5.
Doggies tempting again @ 2.30 (SportsTAB)...(+12.5 @ 1.80), but given the GF is a Melbourne fan, I'll have enough grief for the week if the D's get up, without losing $$ on the game too!


Reports from the west that Cousins did a hamstring at training today.
Apparently Chick is in doubt too, and both will need to pass a full fitness test tomorrow.
Put me off backing the Eagles....Essendon won the same meeting last year by 2...without Fletcher and Hird!!
Tough to take them tho.

 

[bombercoops]

Lloydy back in for the dons and I'm on my team for the first time this year. If they can't register their first win of the season at home against an interstate unit with a couple of injury concerns than they might as well pack it up for the year. Taking them this week and like it due to Lloyd making a start.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

4-3 (+1.5 units)

Kangaroos -20.5 x3u

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Roos / St. K / Frem. / W. B'dogs / Port / Syd @ $7.60 for a half unit

Roos / Syd / Port / St. K @ $2.72 x 1u


There is probably some value in the Bombers @ $2 with Lloyd back in but I'm not tempted.

Good luck fellas

 

[CranMan]

Roos it is!

Roos it is!

PAWAQATSI -

Thanks for answer my question on the Roos match this evening.

I put 1, thin dime on the money line and will stay up late to watch the victory via the internet.

Best of luck to MrChristo & you with the multi parlays!

 

[beast2]

1-0 for the round so far

Plays:
West Coast PK d Essendon
West Coast have showed there offensive power the last 2 weeks sccoring 39 goals while Essendon have kicked only 16 goals. Essendon are trying to distract from their poor form with offield issues and comments involving Sheedy, Hird and Lloyd.

Port -26.5 d Hawthorn
Port are in class with Brisbane at the moment clearly ahead of the rest of the competition right now. They are determined to avenge the last 2 years and will record an easy victory against Hawthorn.

Adelaide +24.5 d Fremantle
Adelaide have a great record against Freo going 3-1 last 2 years and the loss was by a point. The pressure is building and anything less than a good performance will have the Adelaide supporters baying for blood. Freo are a very good team who are going to be nearly impossible to beat at home. Not sure if Adelaide can win but am convinced they can keep it closer than 4 goals.

Other games:
Kangaroos-Carlton. At first glance a bet on Kangas seems obvious and it may well turn out to be but I just don't know where to rate Carlton just yet. A trip to Freo will be tough for any east coast team this season and a win over Geelong can't be taken for anything other than a win.

Sydney - Geelong Sydney will win, there is no question about that and a 6 goal win is also very possible but I just can't support a 6 goal line as Geelong have done ok in sydney in the past.

Bulldogs - Melbourne I said last week I don't trust Melbourne and nothing has changed me there yet. I think Bulldogs can win this but do they know how to win. These two teams are unpredictable and therefore lead to no play.

St Kilda - Richmond If St Kilda continue there current form they should win this match but the real question is which Richmond team will show up, the round 1 team or the round 2 team.

Craig

 

[ageecee]

Kangaroos blowing big lead and the cover

 

[ageecee]

Unfucvkinbelievable-Roos only up 4 at this point end of 3rd qtr

 

[ageecee]

Tie game with 10 mins left

 

[ageecee]

lost 5 units on those co cksuckers

 

[CranMan]

Roos pulled a rabbit out of the 'ol hat

Roos pulled a rabbit out of the 'ol hat

Very fortunate to say the least on the money line wager.

I trust the Swans won't make their match a nail biter. I placed another large money line on Sydney.

How am I going to be able to go to sleep any time soon?

I am glad the multi parlays are still working for Mr. Christo & PAWAQATSI!

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Embarrassing display by the Kangaroos this afternoon after shooting out to a big lead in the 2nd qtr. Blues reeled them in to take the lead in the death, only to have it snatched back in the last 10 seconds after a dodgy free kick to Wells. He nails the 50 odd metre tight angle goal for the win.

CranMan....I'm glad you collected. Sorry if I made it sound easier than it had to be!
AgeeCee....I'm feeling your pain. It funkin well hurts more when it's your own team that screws you.
Could have been worse for me if they had ruined my multis.

*note* - Next time I get on my box and start yellin'......
someone kick it out from under me!!! :banghead:

 

[PAWAQATSI]

I might need Christo to slap me across the head here.....but I'm getting on his Bulldogs tomorrow!! Not sold on Melbourne and willing to take the 'roughie' @ $2.10 for a unit. Hopefully they watched the Roos / Blues game today and learnt something about 'closing out a win' even when the tide is against you.

Also had a unit on P. Bell to have more disposals than McLeod.
Belly is a ball magnet with 60 touches from his first 2 games (ave 30) whereas McLeod has struggled thus far with only 37 (ave 18.5) from his 2. He would need to catch fire to have more of the ball than 'Dinga' and playing over there doesn't help his cause.Win, lose or draw.....Bell gets 30 touches.
1xu @ $1.50

 

[beast2]

What an unbelievable Saturday of Football!!!

First, North Melbourne after leading by 31 early needed a goal by Wells in the last minute to win after Carlton had hit the front and looked like holding on.

Sydney then struggled against Geelong for three quarters before gaining a 2 goal lead and then holding on to win by 6 points.

If those two weren't enough we then saw a classic between Essendon and West Coast. Essendon jumped West Coast and led 8.0.48 to 0.0.0 and the match looked over and the question was how far? As West Coast did last week against Port they never gave up and just kept kicking goals to take the lead early in the last. And just when it looked like West Coast would over run them we saw a last quarter where each team went goal by goal with the draw a high possibility. When the siren went it was Essendon by a goal with Hird showing his brilliance with a great goal to win the match.

I did lose my bet on the Essendon-West Coast but after trailing by 8 goals it was great to be on the edge of my seat in the last but disappointing to come so close.

Hopefully, will have better luck on my two bets tomorrow and my team Adelaide will record it's first win against Fremantle.

Craig

 

[PAWAQATSI]

You're not wrong Craig!!! What a freakin' day / night of footy!!

I stopped watching it after the Bombers got to 7 goals in front and when I flicked it back over later, the Eagles were within 10 points and coming hard! Hird dominated the last qtr and kicked the final 'sealer' at the death before jumping into the crowd!! Unluckily for the Eagles they dropped a mark under pressure inside the 50 after the final bounce. They were abit stiff when you look at the number of scoring shots. Incredible game.

Cranman....you really earned your $$$ after Sydney came from behind to get over a spirited Geelong team. Well done mate!!

I wonder what awaits us tomorrow?? :shrug: