Week 4 already and if the first 3 rounds are to depict how things are going to go this season for all of us on the board then we all look to be in good shape. A quick look at the spreads has me thinking that the pies giving up a goal to freo in melbourne could be a go-er! You guys will have to keep me up to date with any significant injuries in this game if there are any but i think that although the pies have been struggling somewhat and freo have been playing okay, the road trip and a rejuvenated collingwood will be too much for the dockers in this one. Back with more later!
AFL Week 4
- Thread starter bombercoops
- Start date
As usual it's a bit hard to see what's going to happen without the teams....Also haven't updated my 'stats' yet. Hopefully they can give me some indication in a couple of close games this week.
I'll go out on a limb early tho, and say there are 2 fantastic bets I can see so far.
Both Melbourne and Carlton are good things @ 2.95! (Maybe more, given most will probably be on the fav's.)
You may well think I've gone raving mad.....
I'll go out on a limb early tho, and say there are 2 fantastic bets I can see so far.
Both Melbourne and Carlton are good things @ 2.95! (Maybe more, given most will probably be on the fav's.)
You may well think I've gone raving mad.....
Melbourne paper reports that Lynch is not too keen to make the trip over to Perth to face west Coast due to his CFSyndrome. Having already made the return trip to Melbourne for his tribunal appearance, adding another cross country flight might be too much for him. Wait and see if he travels people as he will make the difference bwtween a W or a L.
Jakovich rolled an ankle on Wednesday at a junior clinic while going up against an 8 year old(!) . Is in some doubt for the same clash.
Liking the Coasters in this one, especially if Lynch is a 'no show'.
Jakovich rolled an ankle on Wednesday at a junior clinic while going up against an 8 year old(!)
. Is in some doubt for the same clash.Liking the Coasters in this one, especially if Lynch is a 'no show'.
Don't think you're crazy at all christo for labelling the blues a possible outright winner for friday night's match. Results between these 2 powerhouses in the past indicate that anything is possible and taking the blues straight up is not a bad bet at all. Expecting a 'ripper' to be honest with you! Tarrant and Wakelin out ay! A large hole at each end of the ground will most certainly not help but still liking the pies here. Have to win home games against interstate teams to have any chance of backing up the form of the previous 2 years. 2 Large injuries will hurt though. Can hear the express warming up pawa! Can also hear the fans at windy hill screaming for a ride!
Buckley out now to christo! I can officially say that I will stay away from this one. The dockers would have to be liking their chances of a win with that news wouldn't they?
Never back against my team but the blues at 16.5 look the play for friday night and obviously the pawamech system sees things the same way.
The crows have been struggling so far this season and this week sees them at home as dogs to the saints. I believe adelaide register their first win this week at home against the boys from Moorabin in what should be a good game of footy on saturday night.
Never back against my team but the blues at 16.5 look the play for friday night and obviously the pawamech system sees things the same way.
The crows have been struggling so far this season and this week sees them at home as dogs to the saints. I believe adelaide register their first win this week at home against the boys from Moorabin in what should be a good game of footy on saturday night.
Last edited:
5-3 (+5.4)
ok. Time to rock and roll for Wk. 4! (It's Rd. 4 already!!)
Carlton +21.5 (1.85 @ SportsTAB) (2 units)
Carlton are playing much better football than most people expected, and were very unlucky not to beat a red-hot Kangaroos last week. Essendon have been hugely over-rated IMO.
Essendon's defense has been terrible so far this year, allowing 103 shots at goal, the worst in the league....and, they have had the 3rd fewest shots at goal themselves, behind only Geelong and Richmond!!
It doesn't matter where these teams are on the ladder, they are always very even...In the last 3 years Carlton have won 3 of 6 games paying 4.00 last year, 4.00 and 5.75 before that!!
I really expect the Blues to win SU tonight (2.95 is the best I can find)...esp. with the forecast of some rain.
ok. Time to rock and roll for Wk. 4!
(It's Rd. 4 already!!)Carlton +21.5 (1.85 @ SportsTAB) (2 units)
Carlton are playing much better football than most people expected, and were very unlucky not to beat a red-hot Kangaroos last week. Essendon have been hugely over-rated IMO.
Essendon's defense has been terrible so far this year, allowing 103 shots at goal, the worst in the league....and, they have had the 3rd fewest shots at goal themselves, behind only Geelong and Richmond!!
It doesn't matter where these teams are on the ladder, they are always very even...In the last 3 years Carlton have won 3 of 6 games paying 4.00 last year, 4.00 and 5.75 before that!!
I really expect the Blues to win SU tonight (2.95 is the best I can find)...esp. with the forecast of some rain.
Year to Date: 7-3 (70%) for +3.3 Units
Round 4 Plays:
Carlton +17.5 d Essendon
Last week, I was unsure where to rate Carlton but I can now say that they will around the mark come finals time if they play like last week. Essendon on the other hand only just scraped home with some Hird magic against West Coast after leading by 8 goals.
Port -15.5 d Melbourne
Port have destroyed Essendon and Hawthorn at home and should have beaten West Coast by a larger margin. The loss of Chad Cornes will hurt Port but I still think they can beat Melbourne by over 3 goals despite losing to them at the MCG the past 2 years.
Adelaide d St Kilda
Adelaide must win this game to keep their season on track. Last week they showed signs but poor kicking in the first half really cost them. St Kilda are without Hamill and have won 7 straight if you count the wizard cup so I think they may be due for a loss.
North Melbourne d Sydney
North Melbourne have a great record at Manuka and when you combine their record this season they should be favourites for this game. Sydney were disappointing last week and if it had been any other team they would probably have lost.
Other games:
West Coast/Brisbane
Hard game to call. West Coast missing Gardiner and Jakovich certainly throws the equation in Brisbane's favour. The result last year was a West Coast win which may be attributed to the long trip to Perth and therefore I will skip this game.
Geelong/Richmond
Flip a coin and that is a close as you will get to picking the winner of this.
Collingwood/Fremantle
Collingwood are now without Tarrant, Wakelin and Buckley. This gives a huge chance for a Fremantle but their travelling record still scares me enough to leave this one alone.
Hawthorn/Bulldogs
Hawthorn were awful against Port last week and will need a huge improvement this week. The successful appeal of Crawford is a huge bonus. Bulldogs have been in all three this year and will eventually win one and this one may be it.
Craig
Round 4 Plays:
Carlton +17.5 d Essendon
Last week, I was unsure where to rate Carlton but I can now say that they will around the mark come finals time if they play like last week. Essendon on the other hand only just scraped home with some Hird magic against West Coast after leading by 8 goals.
Port -15.5 d Melbourne
Port have destroyed Essendon and Hawthorn at home and should have beaten West Coast by a larger margin. The loss of Chad Cornes will hurt Port but I still think they can beat Melbourne by over 3 goals despite losing to them at the MCG the past 2 years.
Adelaide d St Kilda
Adelaide must win this game to keep their season on track. Last week they showed signs but poor kicking in the first half really cost them. St Kilda are without Hamill and have won 7 straight if you count the wizard cup so I think they may be due for a loss.
North Melbourne d Sydney
North Melbourne have a great record at Manuka and when you combine their record this season they should be favourites for this game. Sydney were disappointing last week and if it had been any other team they would probably have lost.
Other games:
West Coast/Brisbane
Hard game to call. West Coast missing Gardiner and Jakovich certainly throws the equation in Brisbane's favour. The result last year was a West Coast win which may be attributed to the long trip to Perth and therefore I will skip this game.
Geelong/Richmond
Flip a coin and that is a close as you will get to picking the winner of this.
Collingwood/Fremantle
Collingwood are now without Tarrant, Wakelin and Buckley. This gives a huge chance for a Fremantle but their travelling record still scares me enough to leave this one alone.
Hawthorn/Bulldogs
Hawthorn were awful against Port last week and will need a huge improvement this week. The successful appeal of Crawford is a huge bonus. Bulldogs have been in all three this year and will eventually win one and this one may be it.
Craig
Melbourne +16.5
Sorry, beast. On the other side of this one.
Past history is too tough to ignore here. Port have won just 3 games of their last 13 at the MCG...only 1 by more than 4 points!!
Also Melbourne have a great head-to-head record v. Port. They have won 6 of the last 10 meetings...all 4 at the MCG. Even the losses have been repectable, by 17, 20, 4 and 14 all @ AAMI.
Port's last 7 away games: Lost by 1 point @ Geelong. Won by 15 @ dome (v. Bulldogs). Won by 1 point @ Brisbane. Won by 4 @ MCG (v. Hawthorn). Won by 20 @ dome (v. Richmond). Loss by 44 @ MCG (v. Collingwood). Won by 3 @ Perth in Rd. 2.
That's only 1 from 7 covering this number.
Also, maybe surprisingly Melbourne averaging 5 more Inside 50's a game than Port this season!!...and allowing 6 less a game!!!!
Melbourne brilliant value @ 2.95 to win.
Also a bit of bad weather forecast will do Melbourne a favour too. Really think the Dees win this one, but will take the safe option.
Also like the Crows. (2.05 best I can find...not great.)
Saints have won just 3 of last 18 meetings, and only 2 of 13 @ AAMI. (Although, interestingly 2 of the 3 times they have been fav!).
Agree with beast tho, they are due for a down week. Tough to keep winning in this comp.
Like West Coast. (2.20 good odds)
Gardiner and Jakovich out, Cox doubtful, but Lunch is out for Brisbane who kicked 8 of 13 goals last time these teams met. We saw in Rd. 1 how Brisbane struggle to kick goals without him. (Although, admittedly West Coast won't bottle it up like Sydney did.).
West Coast won as 4.25 underdogs last meeting in Perth!! Hard to see them dropping 2 in a row at home.
Sorry, beast. On the other side of this one.
Past history is too tough to ignore here. Port have won just 3 games of their last 13 at the MCG...only 1 by more than 4 points!!
Also Melbourne have a great head-to-head record v. Port. They have won 6 of the last 10 meetings...all 4 at the MCG. Even the losses have been repectable, by 17, 20, 4 and 14 all @ AAMI.
Port's last 7 away games: Lost by 1 point @ Geelong. Won by 15 @ dome (v. Bulldogs). Won by 1 point @ Brisbane. Won by 4 @ MCG (v. Hawthorn). Won by 20 @ dome (v. Richmond). Loss by 44 @ MCG (v. Collingwood). Won by 3 @ Perth in Rd. 2.
That's only 1 from 7 covering this number.
Also, maybe surprisingly Melbourne averaging 5 more Inside 50's a game than Port this season!!...and allowing 6 less a game!!!!
Melbourne brilliant value @ 2.95 to win.
Also a bit of bad weather forecast will do Melbourne a favour too. Really think the Dees win this one, but will take the safe option.
Also like the Crows. (2.05 best I can find...not great.)
Saints have won just 3 of last 18 meetings, and only 2 of 13 @ AAMI. (Although, interestingly 2 of the 3 times they have been fav!).
Agree with beast tho, they are due for a down week. Tough to keep winning in this comp.
Like West Coast. (2.20 good odds)
Gardiner and Jakovich out, Cox doubtful, but Lunch is out for Brisbane who kicked 8 of 13 goals last time these teams met. We saw in Rd. 1 how Brisbane struggle to kick goals without him. (Although, admittedly West Coast won't bottle it up like Sydney did.).
West Coast won as 4.25 underdogs last meeting in Perth!! Hard to see them dropping 2 in a row at home.
Good effort getting +21.5 on Carlton Christo. My SportsTAB account was deactivated and now they tell me its only $1000 max deposit by card! WTF?!! Several angry phone calls later I had to settle for the balance @ the +17.5
I hope it isn't the difference in the end!!
Cloud cover here in Melb is heavy but no rain as yet with an hour to go before game time. I might have to go outside and do a dance!! Rain would certainly tighten things up.
I hope Fevola has a good night.
Good luck to all of us Blues backers. :firing:
Some good games this weekend.
I hope it isn't the difference in the end!!
Cloud cover here in Melb is heavy but no rain as yet with an hour to go before game time. I might have to go outside and do a dance!!
Rain would certainly tighten things up.I hope Fevola has a good night.
Good luck to all of us Blues backers. :firing:
Some good games this weekend.
They are a funny bunch, PAWA! I think you have to access your account every 3 months or something silly to keep it activated! :shrug: Didn't know that myself until a couple of months back when I got a 'warning' email.
Have had problems depositing too.
I generally don't use them (because of the things you've mentioned) and also because they charge to deposit :nono:
but some of the prices/spreads they have had on 'dogs so far this year are too good to ignore!Just looking at past history, I don't think those extra 4 points will matter much anyway. Either Carlton win SU or get smacked!
Some weird shit happening to the prices now tho! Handicaps are coming in, but Blues now out to 3.00 to win! (3.04 @ Pinnacle)
Now get those gumboots on and dance!!
Looks like we all called the Carlton game very wrong. Carlton showed nothing in the third being outscored 8 goals to 1.
Listening to the radio broadcast I thought carlton were a huge chance when they lead by 3 goals in the first and then again in the second but when Essendon go the late goals in the second I began to worry.
Hopefully better things to come in the rest of the round.
Craig
Listening to the radio broadcast I thought carlton were a huge chance when they lead by 3 goals in the first and then again in the second but when Essendon go the late goals in the second I began to worry.
Hopefully better things to come in the rest of the round.
Craig
5-4 (+3.4)
5-4 (+3.4)
Sure was a shocking 10 minutes, beast. Cost us.
At least one of us will get back on track tomorrow!
Adding West Coast as a definate play @ 2.10.
Also playing Haselby to get more possies than Licuria @ 1.95!!
Here's hoping for a 17 point Port win!
5-4 (+3.4)
Sure was a shocking 10 minutes, beast. Cost us.
At least one of us will get back on track tomorrow!
Adding West Coast as a definate play @ 2.10.
Also playing Haselby to get more possies than Licuria @ 1.95!!
Here's hoping for a 17 point Port win!
:yupMrChristo said:
Adelaide and West Coast I'm liking. Leaning Geelong's way too. Roos look good but perhaps my bias is swaying me too much.
Will dabble with some multis in the morning.
Unfortunate the blues couldn't come through for you guys but at the same time, was happy to see my dons register another must needed 'W'. All over the crows straight up and have been since I first saw the line early in the week. Hoping we all cash in on that one.
Also, watched the roos/carlton game from last weekend last night over here in texas (they show one game every thurs night from the previous rounds play including highlights from the other games) and noticed whitnall playing in the back line early in the game. What the phuck is up with that? Great game and I'm sure you were doing backflips pawa when they kicked a goal with a minute to play.
Christo, any thoughts on your doggies this week mate?
Also, watched the roos/carlton game from last weekend last night over here in texas (they show one game every thurs night from the previous rounds play including highlights from the other games) and noticed whitnall playing in the back line early in the game. What the phuck is up with that? Great game and I'm sure you were doing backflips pawa when they kicked a goal with a minute to play.
Christo, any thoughts on your doggies this week mate?
6-7 (-0.48 units)
Multis for today
Melb +16.5 / WCoast +5.5 / Geelong / Adelaide @ $13 x 1u
WCoast / Adelaide @ $4.20 x 1u
Good luck fellas and go you Demons :firing:
Multis for today
Melb +16.5 / WCoast +5.5 / Geelong / Adelaide @ $13 x 1u
WCoast / Adelaide @ $4.20 x 1u
Good luck fellas and go you Demons :firing:
