Preview & outright plays:
Formerly the Vancouver Open, this has been blighted by scheduling problems since its inaugural event in 1996. For the first three years it coincided with the NEC World Series of Golf and since then it has been played the week after the WGC-NEC Invitational; a time when most of the leading players are looking for a week off, especially in Ryder Cup year! Mark Calcavecchia has been a regular at Northview, but is absent this week. The list of winners is hardly inspiring either: Guy Boros, Brandel Chamblee and Rory Sabbatini, though Calc did win this event in 1997 when a shadow of this year's player and home favorite Mike Weir did make the event a memorable one two years ago. It was enough for him to be proclaimed the 'Canadian Tiger', though he has yet to really live up to that billing.
The course has undergone some significant changes since the 1999 event: 252 yards were added though it is still very short by Tour standards at 7,065 yards. To compensate, the rough was more than doubled in acreage and the formerly large, undulating Bentgrass greens were reduced to be well below the Tour average. The effect was a quarter-shot increase in the scoring average though it may have had as much to do with the weather. The course is built on blue-clay and when it receives heavy rainfall, the surface really compacts and the long-hitters hold the advantage. In turn, when it starts to dry down with sunny and windy conditions, the fairways and greens roll very quickly and the good putters hold the advantage. Such a contrast is clear from the course compatibility table. With the recent wet weather in the area, it should be a week for the long-hitters.
The three selections this week are Jesper Parnevik, Charles Howell and Steve Lowery. Parnevik heads the market with Weir and they are by far the highest-ranked entrants in the World Rankings - Lowery is the next highest at 40th - but Parnevik is playing the better golf at the moment. He does not have the burden of home expectation and can play freely in the knowledge that he will be in the Ryder Cup no matter what happens in Germany this week. The halfway leader last year, he should have a better weekend this year and profit from a weak field.
Charles Howell's prodigious length should be of benefit if the long-hitters are favored this week. He has finished in the top-25 of each of his last six Tour events and was in excellent position to secure his maiden win last week at the Reno-Tahoe Open. He had an indifferent final round to finish 4th, but as Calc is the only winner of this event to have won before, history suggests this could certainly be the week that Howell secures that maiden Tour win.
Despite Scott McCarron's length advantage, Steve Lowery gets the third berth on account of his current form. Ignoring the made-for-TV International, Lowery's last three Tour finishes have been 10th (GMO), 15th (John Deere) and 3rd (PGA Championship). Two years ago he was struggling to retain his card, now he is the 3rd-highest ranked player in this field. With decent course form - 10th and 13th the last two years - and confidence higher than it has been since 1994, he looks to have a decent shot at this title.
Outright plays:
Jesper Parnevik to win 14/1 e.w. @
BetSmart
Charles Howell to win 18/1 e.w. @
Sports.com [17/1 @
Olympic]
Steve Lowery to win 28/1 e.w. @
Olympic
