Alabama Rolltide Vs Mich St - KOD
- Thread starter THE KOD
- Start date
2015 College Season... 16-3 .. 84.2 % .. +$ 5,588.00
College Playoffs - 1-0 .... + $ 646.00
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2015 .. 17-3 ... 85% ... + $ 6,234.00
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I have watched alot of Mich St games over the past 4 days. They are battle ready and will problaby give Alabama all they want and then some.
Alabama is the stronger willed team for this matchup. Saban has a way taking things to the next levels. Maybe they can just let Henry run 40 times and see how Mich St holds up. Then they can open up on some good old farmyard play action..... and I think we all know what that means.
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ROLLTIDE
College Playoffs - 1-0 .... + $ 646.00
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2015 .. 17-3 ... 85% ... + $ 6,234.00
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I have watched alot of Mich St games over the past 4 days. They are battle ready and will problaby give Alabama all they want and then some.
Alabama is the stronger willed team for this matchup. Saban has a way taking things to the next levels. Maybe they can just let Henry run 40 times and see how Mich St holds up. Then they can open up on some good old farmyard play action..... and I think we all know what that means.
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ROLLTIDE
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4Oklahoma 4:00 PM ET
1Clemson
I have looked hard at both teams for the early game.
This game will probably be won by who has the most turnovers or best special teams
plays.
I dont like to wager on games like that because its stupid luck that wins and not me.
The total is like 60 .
anyone got ideas about this games total play ?
1Clemson
I have looked hard at both teams for the early game.
This game will probably be won by who has the most turnovers or best special teams
plays.
I dont like to wager on games like that because its stupid luck that wins and not me.
The total is like 60 .
anyone got ideas about this games total play ?
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If the 3 suspensions do anything to affect the outcome, I think it just makes the game closer to a toss up than before.
how do you smoke the ganja before this game and expect no trouble ?
dont draft them fools
how do you smoke the ganja before this game and expect no trouble ?
dont draft them fools
I've got 35-28 Oklahoma, but I personally wouldn't play the under. Also this year, Clemson is the 'hunted', Oklahoma was last year. I was thinking the total was still 66ish.
my book has it at 64 total
I would think this game will be scoring to keep up with the other team
both teams capable of running up and down the field.
cant wager the side.
totals always get me somehow.
:mj09::banghead:
I would think this game will be scoring to keep up with the other team
both teams capable of running up and down the field.
cant wager the side.
totals always get me somehow.
:mj09::banghead:
Michigan State: Lucky or good?
It?s the play of the year: Michigan State was down 23-21 at The Big House, 10 seconds on the clock, Michigan punting on what would surely be the final play of the game. It was ? just not the final play anyone could have imagined: Michigan State blocking a Michigan punt and returning it for a touchdown as time expired. What was likely the most exciting moment of the college football season also perfectly represents Michigan State?s run ? a year of close calls and near-failures, but success in the end.
The Spartans are 12-1 heading into the College Football Playoff vs. Alabama on Thursday. They got there not by dominance, but by the skin of their teeth. Are they lucky, or are they good? They?re both.
Although Michigan State has earned a strong record, it has been awfully lucky en route. For instance, in the two weeks before that miracle win against Michigan, the Spartans had close calls against Purdue and Rutgers. Their habit of cutting it close caught up with them when Nebraska delivered their only loss in a thrilling and controversial 39-38 upset.
The Spartans recovered from that loss with big wins against Ohio State and, in the Big Ten title game, versus Iowa. But both games were extremely close. Michigan State never led until the final play of the game against the Buckeyes, and it took an epic 22-play drive in the conference championship?s final minutes to beat Iowa.
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:scared:scared
I won good money on Mich St winning vs Iowa. So I aint hatin on them totally.
But on the other hand.
Purdue and Rutgers almost took them down ......:142smilie:142smilie
It?s the play of the year: Michigan State was down 23-21 at The Big House, 10 seconds on the clock, Michigan punting on what would surely be the final play of the game. It was ? just not the final play anyone could have imagined: Michigan State blocking a Michigan punt and returning it for a touchdown as time expired. What was likely the most exciting moment of the college football season also perfectly represents Michigan State?s run ? a year of close calls and near-failures, but success in the end.
The Spartans are 12-1 heading into the College Football Playoff vs. Alabama on Thursday. They got there not by dominance, but by the skin of their teeth. Are they lucky, or are they good? They?re both.
Although Michigan State has earned a strong record, it has been awfully lucky en route. For instance, in the two weeks before that miracle win against Michigan, the Spartans had close calls against Purdue and Rutgers. Their habit of cutting it close caught up with them when Nebraska delivered their only loss in a thrilling and controversial 39-38 upset.
The Spartans recovered from that loss with big wins against Ohio State and, in the Big Ten title game, versus Iowa. But both games were extremely close. Michigan State never led until the final play of the game against the Buckeyes, and it took an epic 22-play drive in the conference championship?s final minutes to beat Iowa.
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:scared:scared
I won good money on Mich St winning vs Iowa. So I aint hatin on them totally.
But on the other hand.
Purdue and Rutgers almost took them down ......:142smilie:142smilie
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Alabama will win -- but not cover: It all comes down to Alabama having the best defense in the country by a significant margin. In Football Outsiders' Defensive S&P+ ratings, the Crimson Tide are first in every major category but one (passing downs, where they were a paltry third in the nation).
The Tide's dominance starts with the front seven, which goes two-deep at pretty much every position with NFL talent. Alabama's defensive line was the most dominant front in the nation, finishing No. 2 in adjusted line yards against (measuring rushing yards allowed adjusted for opponent) and No. 3 in adjusted sack rate (measuring the defense's sack rate, adjusted for opponent). No other team in the nation finished in the top 10 in both categories.
This year's defense is as dominant a group as Alabama's had under Nick Saban, and historically, Saban teams have dominated pro-style offenses. The Tide have not lost to a non-spread team since a 9-6 overtime loss to LSU in November 2011. Michigan State was a better passing team than running team this season, and quarterback Connor Cook might have the opportunity to make a few plays, but it's going to be a struggle to consistently put together sustained drives against the Tide.
To beat Alabama, a team has to force turnovers and create explosive plays. The last three teams to beat Alabama ranked No. 1 (2014 Ohio State), No. 2 (2015 Ole Miss), and No. 42 (2014 Ole Miss) in creating explosive plays during their respective seasons.
Michigan State was No. 72 in 2015 with just 16 plays of 30 or more yards (118th nationally).:142smilie
The Spartans are talented and could keep this close, but this is a team that had to grind out wins against its toughest competition. Doing that against Alabama is nearly impossible and without the threat of big plays, it's hard to see them upsetting the Tide outright.
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I smell money and it smells green
The Tide's dominance starts with the front seven, which goes two-deep at pretty much every position with NFL talent. Alabama's defensive line was the most dominant front in the nation, finishing No. 2 in adjusted line yards against (measuring rushing yards allowed adjusted for opponent) and No. 3 in adjusted sack rate (measuring the defense's sack rate, adjusted for opponent). No other team in the nation finished in the top 10 in both categories.
This year's defense is as dominant a group as Alabama's had under Nick Saban, and historically, Saban teams have dominated pro-style offenses. The Tide have not lost to a non-spread team since a 9-6 overtime loss to LSU in November 2011. Michigan State was a better passing team than running team this season, and quarterback Connor Cook might have the opportunity to make a few plays, but it's going to be a struggle to consistently put together sustained drives against the Tide.
To beat Alabama, a team has to force turnovers and create explosive plays. The last three teams to beat Alabama ranked No. 1 (2014 Ohio State), No. 2 (2015 Ole Miss), and No. 42 (2014 Ole Miss) in creating explosive plays during their respective seasons.
Michigan State was No. 72 in 2015 with just 16 plays of 30 or more yards (118th nationally).:142smilie
The Spartans are talented and could keep this close, but this is a team that had to grind out wins against its toughest competition. Doing that against Alabama is nearly impossible and without the threat of big plays, it's hard to see them upsetting the Tide outright.
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I smell money and it smells green
Swinney downplayed the losses, pointing out that all three players are backups. But Cain, a 6-foot-2, 200-pound freshman, was one of the leading deep threats for the Tigers, ranking third on the team with 34 catches and second with 582 yards receiving. He had five touchdowns and averaged 17.1 yards per reception.
Cain played behind Charon Peace, who will have to take more snaps now that his top backup is out. Redshirt freshman Trevion Thompson (10 catches, 115 yards) will move up to take Cain's spot on the depth chart. His most notable play was a crucial third-down catch in the fourth quarter of the regular-season finale against South Carolina.
"He's very capable of making any play that we need," Swinney said. "Got all the confidence in the world in him."
Lakip handled some extra points for the Tigers, going 7-for-7, and also connected on his only field-goal attempt. Greg Hegel is the Tigers' starting kicker but struggled on PATS, missing five attempts.:scared
McCullough played sparingly and did not have a catch this season.
"It helps that we've got a big roster and we have a lot of good players," Swinney said.
The coach also scoffed at the notion that losing three players will be a distraction to the Tigers (13-0), the top-ranked team coming into the College Football Playoff.
"Why would it be a distraction?" he shot back. "Jay McCullough and Lakip and Deon don't have anything to do with (star defensive end) Shaq Lawson and how he plays his game, doesn't have anything to do with the rest of those guys. It's not a distraction at all. It's a distraction for me because I have to answer questions about three guys that break our rules, and I have to deal with it, but that comes with my job. Those guys, they're focused on doing what they do. It has nothing to do with them."
If the Tigers beat Oklahoma (11-1), they would advance to face either Alabama or Michigan State in the national championship game on Jan. 11. None of the three suspended players would be allowed to play in that game either, according to Swinney.
"Those guys have all forfeited their opportunity to be with us for any postseason play," the coach said.
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Coach is a hard ass, and that is as it should be.
Big worry to me is the PAT . Dude has missed 5 . That could be the difference in the win or loss at the end.
holy shitballs
Cain played behind Charon Peace, who will have to take more snaps now that his top backup is out. Redshirt freshman Trevion Thompson (10 catches, 115 yards) will move up to take Cain's spot on the depth chart. His most notable play was a crucial third-down catch in the fourth quarter of the regular-season finale against South Carolina.
"He's very capable of making any play that we need," Swinney said. "Got all the confidence in the world in him."
Lakip handled some extra points for the Tigers, going 7-for-7, and also connected on his only field-goal attempt. Greg Hegel is the Tigers' starting kicker but struggled on PATS, missing five attempts.:scared
McCullough played sparingly and did not have a catch this season.
"It helps that we've got a big roster and we have a lot of good players," Swinney said.
The coach also scoffed at the notion that losing three players will be a distraction to the Tigers (13-0), the top-ranked team coming into the College Football Playoff.
"Why would it be a distraction?" he shot back. "Jay McCullough and Lakip and Deon don't have anything to do with (star defensive end) Shaq Lawson and how he plays his game, doesn't have anything to do with the rest of those guys. It's not a distraction at all. It's a distraction for me because I have to answer questions about three guys that break our rules, and I have to deal with it, but that comes with my job. Those guys, they're focused on doing what they do. It has nothing to do with them."
If the Tigers beat Oklahoma (11-1), they would advance to face either Alabama or Michigan State in the national championship game on Jan. 11. None of the three suspended players would be allowed to play in that game either, according to Swinney.
"Those guys have all forfeited their opportunity to be with us for any postseason play," the coach said.
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Coach is a hard ass, and that is as it should be.
Big worry to me is the PAT . Dude has missed 5 . That could be the difference in the win or loss at the end.
holy shitballs
After going 0-6 ATS through a sloppy 6-0 SU start, the Michigan State Spartans turned their season around with one big play. Catapulted by a road win over Michigan due to a punt block returned for touchdown on the final play of the game, the Spartans ended the season on a 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS run, including a 17-14 road win over Ohio State as a 14.5-point underdog and a 16-13 win over Iowa in the Big Ten Championship Game.
Michigan State's defense allowed only 10 points per game over the last four games of the season.
Betting Line / Total: Alabama -9.5 / 46.5 Points
Spartans vs. Crimson Tide
Alabama's 43-37 home loss to Ole Miss in the team's third game of the season put the Crimson Tide in a big hole early, but they climbed out of that hole in dominant fashion. The Crimson Tide ended the regular season on a 10-0 SU and 6-4 ATS run, beating their opponents by an average of 21.6 points along the way.
Derrick Henry ran away with the Heisman Trophy race, rushing for 1,986 yards and 23 touchdowns this season. Alabama is 5-1 SU and ATS in its last six games against Big Ten opponents.
Thursday night's total is set at 46.5 points. The OVER is 4-0 in Alabama's last four December games and 8-1 in Alabama's last nine bowl games.
While the Crimson Tide may be the superior team, Michigan State has played way too well on defense this season and plays too well as an underdog to be written off.
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I have got to look at the total in this game.
Will good defense rule out the over. Or will mistakes be made to add to final score.
I need to hit this one .
decisions decisions
If I win the first bet I could maybe win the total or at least even it up on the total wager.
think long, think wrong my friends
Michigan State's defense allowed only 10 points per game over the last four games of the season.
Betting Line / Total: Alabama -9.5 / 46.5 Points
Spartans vs. Crimson Tide
Alabama's 43-37 home loss to Ole Miss in the team's third game of the season put the Crimson Tide in a big hole early, but they climbed out of that hole in dominant fashion. The Crimson Tide ended the regular season on a 10-0 SU and 6-4 ATS run, beating their opponents by an average of 21.6 points along the way.
Derrick Henry ran away with the Heisman Trophy race, rushing for 1,986 yards and 23 touchdowns this season. Alabama is 5-1 SU and ATS in its last six games against Big Ten opponents.
Thursday night's total is set at 46.5 points. The OVER is 4-0 in Alabama's last four December games and 8-1 in Alabama's last nine bowl games.
While the Crimson Tide may be the superior team, Michigan State has played way too well on defense this season and plays too well as an underdog to be written off.
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I have got to look at the total in this game.
Will good defense rule out the over. Or will mistakes be made to add to final score.
I need to hit this one .
decisions decisions
If I win the first bet I could maybe win the total or at least even it up on the total wager.
think long, think wrong my friends
Thursday night's total is set at 46.5 points. The OVER is 4-0 in Alabama's last four December games and 8-1 in Alabama's last nine bowl games.
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they gave me the winning information I needed to make this play
The over has shown up 90% + in all them years.
TIME FOR THE FUCKING UNDER
this is just good karma me thinks
Go defense
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they gave me the winning information I needed to make this play
The over has shown up 90% + in all them years.
TIME FOR THE FUCKING UNDER
this is just good karma me thinks
Go defense
I'm taking MSU on the ML. I've seen this team play all year. That "lucky" win over Michigan should not have come down to that. MSU dropped several open passes that would have been easy first downs. The MSU defense is not as good as it was last year, but they can shut down the run (see OSU game) and if this comes down to the Bama QB winning it against a D focusing on stopping the run.....Spartans all day long. I watched the Bama - Florida game.....puke. UF couldn't move the ball so Bama had great field position all day and did the minimum scoring you could expect. I'll take the better team from the better conference with the better QB.
- Oct 19, 2014
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Me too! better team = BAMA, better conference = SEC, better QB = Coker.... Roll Tide!!
Thanks for chiming in early. Coker's playing the game of his life. I'm sure he'll have a helluva career in the NFL.
MSU's offensive game plan coming in was shit. I don't understand WTF they were thinking and it still looks like they are lost.
Congrats to the Bama backers. Saban and Kiffin outcoached MSU and gave pizza face confidence.
KOD I always read your posts. Whether or not I agree they always make sense. I like the fact that you appear to have no affiliate team or conference. It's just about the dollars. Not who wins or loses. But who covers the mark. Nice analysis. Sounds like someone's NUTS got a little chaffed today. Do you also have a remedy on how he might stop the itch? Maybe a turpentine soak? Roll KOD.
Ana
Ana
