Anti-Consensus

[BobbyBlueChip]

Don't post in this forum much (because I SUCK at baskets), but this is the time of the year that I do well by going straight anti-consenus (also works in the NCAA bowls) Taken from another site, here is the consensus as of 10:45 CST

Team / Votes / % / line / Team/ Votes/ %
Wyoming 48 17.20% +6.5 Gonzaga 231 82.80%
Fla Atlantic 54 23.68% +17.5 Alabama 174 76.32%
Holy Cross 56 24.67% +29.5 Kansas 171 75.33%
Nc Wilmington 59 25.43% +11 Usc 173 74.57%
Santa Barbara 61 25.52% +13.5 Arizona 178 74.48%
Tulsa 72 27.91% +5 Marquette 186 72.09%
Davidson 68 28.10% +12 Ohio St 174 71.90%
Montana 60 28.17% +20.5 Oregon 153 71.83%
Nc Charlotte 89 31.12% PK Notre Dame 197 68.88%
Winthrop 76 32.48% +33.5 Duke 158 67.52%
Utah 115 49.15% +6 Indiana 119 50.85%
Valparaiso 137 51.31% +7.5 Kentucky 130 48.69%
Missouri 132 51.36% +1 Miami Fla 125 48.64%
Western Kentucky 148 53.24% +3.5 Stanford 130 46.76%
Kent 177 58.80% -2 Oklahoma St 124 41.20%
Pepperdine 181 64.18% +4 Wake Forest 101 35.82%

Going against 70% or more consensus leads to the following picks

Wyoming +6.5
Florida Atlantic +17.5
Holy Cross +29.5
NC Wilmington +11
Santa Barbara +13.5
Tulsa +5
Davidson +12
Montana+20.5

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

system record 7-0 (UCSB pending)


Mcneese St 40 23.81% +10.5 Mississippi St 128 76.19%
Boston U 61 25.10% +24.5 Cincinnati 182 74.90%
Hampton 64 25.40% +12.5 Connecticut 188 74.60%
Southern Ill 84 27.18% +3 Texas Tech 225 72.82%
Siena 32 27.35% +26.5 Maryland 85 72.65%
Illinois Chi 80 30.65% +18.5 Oklahoma 181 69.35%
Mississippi 108 37.24% +1 Ucla 182 62.76%
Murray St 101 37.55% +9 Georgia 168 62.45%
San Diego St 114 41.16% +10 Illinois 163 58.84%
Central Conn 115 41.97% +15 Pittsburgh 159 58.03%
Pennsylvania 129 42.72% +4.5 California 173 57.28%
Boston College 130 46.43% +5.5 Texas 150 53.57%
Creighton 124 46.62% +9.5 Florida 142 53.38%
St Johns 132 47.65% +2 Wisconsin 145 52.35%
Michigan St 165 53.40% +1.5 No Carolina St 144 46.60%
Hawaii 187 59.18% +2 Xavier 129 40.82%

Friday's Selections
McNeese St +10.5
Boston +24.5
Hampton +12.5
So Illinois +3
Siena +26.5

Word to the wise - While this system has been successful in the past, it's never done this well (obviously). It could go 1-4 tommorow and still be over 60%

 

[bgold13]

WOW!!! nice work on that find..you got the numbers for tommarow?

 

[bgold13]

nevermind im illiterate nice post

 

[gardenweasel]

that`s more than scary

that`s more than scary

i think it stinks to high heaven...just watched arizona play like crap,shoot 42 free throws to 15 by ucsb and only win by 5......they should have lost outright...had no wagering interest but saw alot of the game on local tv...gauchos were getting mugged and couldn`t draw a call....the crowd really booed the refs...felt sorry for ucsb...refs shouldn`t have that kind of influence over such a big game.

 

[bgold13]

in just so happened that the head of ncaa refs was at the game. To me there is nothing more annoying than refs taking control of the game. Do you know if they were pac-10 refs? If they were it wouyld make sense because pac-10 refs are awful

 

[dr. freeze]

i agree.....from what i saw, this was one-sided reffing........

also thought that the refs helped Kansas out a bit.....only saw the last few minutes, but Kansas was given benefit of the doubt on several calls.....

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

system record 11-2

Team/Votes/%/Line/Team/Votes/%
Stanford 39 22.81% +5 Kansas 132 77.19%
Wake Forest 46 28.40% +3.5 Oregon 116 71.60%
Wyoming 51 35.42% +8 Arizona 93 64.58%
Notre Dame 60 36.14% +15.5 Duke 106 63.86%
Montana St 36 39.13% +8.5 Richmond 56 60.87%
Nc Wilmington 61 42.96% +8.5 Indiana 81 57.04%
Kent 103 44.21% +2 Alabama 130 55.79%
Tulsa 91 46.43% +5.5 Kentucky 105 53.57%
Missouri 128 59.81% +2 Ohio St 86 40.19%

Saturday's Plays
Stanford +5
Wake Forest +3.5

 

[Antonio]

Bobby i believe your 10-3 with the system, but hey who's counting i like the way you think and good luck the rest of the tourney

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

My numbers are:

Wyoming +6.5 W
Florida Atlantic +17.5W
Holy Cross +29.5W
NC Wilmington +11W
Santa Barbara +13.5W
Tulsa +5W
Davidson +12W
Montana+20.5W
McNeese St +10.5L
Boston +24.5L
Hampton +12.5W
So Illinois +3W
Siena +26.5W

I think it's 11-2, maybe the difference is in the lines used

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

system record 11-4

Xavier 50 23.81% +6.5 Oklahoma 160 76.19%
Southern Ill 39 34.82% +2 Georgia 73 65.18%
California 76 34.86% +2.5 Pittsburgh 142 65.14%
No Carolina St 79 36.74% +2 Connecticut 136 63.26%
Creighton 80 39.02% +9.5 Illinois 125 60.98%
Wisconsin 53 46.49% +14 Maryland 61 53.51%
Texas 65 55.56% -1.5 Mississippi St 52 44.44%
Ucla 74 58.27% +8.5 Cincinnati 53 41.73%

Sunday's Play
Xavier +6.5

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

system record 11-5


Team / Votes / % / line / Team/ Votes/ %
Indiana 89 28.16% +12.5 Duke 227 71.84%
Kent 100 38.46% PK Pittsburgh 160 61.54%
Arizona 116 44.79% +3 Oklahoma 143 55.21%
Missouri 159 50.48% +1.5 Ucla 156 49.52%

Thursday's Selection
Indiana +12.5

 

[Phil Turcotte]

What site can you get this kind of information from?

Keep up the great work.

 

[PerpetualCzech]

This is a very interesting thread for me. I'd also be interested in where you get this info from. Thanks a lot for sharing it, too.

How long have you been following this angle and how have the results been historically?

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

It's a consensus site like MadJack's www.bestbettor.com, but there are more users and the participants aren't nearly as sharp .

I can't give out the name of the site due to the policy of no websites on these message boards. I only use this theory in the NCAA bowls and the tournament and the past three years, it has hit over 59% each year, the best year less than 66%.

 

[superbook]

BBC -- what if the % drops below 70%? At 1:20PM:

Indiana 114 29.84% Duke 268 70.16%




FWIW if you're looking for the site go to Yahoo search and type in the words "Wager" and "Line" and it should be the first web site listed.

- Jon

 

[taoist]

I was wondering the same SB....

Also, BBC, do you play the totals that go over the 70%?

...that would mean plays on the Duke/Ind. Under and the Kent/Pitt Under.... just curious.

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

Superbook,
It's not a science, I only bet the 70% and over and it's as of the last time that I look at it. (Usually the the last thing I do the night before or the first thing in the morning).

Most of the ones that I have used in this thread are the selections from the night before the game day.

Taoist,
I've never used or tracked it for totals.

 

[superbook]

BBC -- it might not be an exact science but it's performing really well for you, so keep up exactly what you're doin'.

It's my understanding that a survey is considered statistically significant when the sample size is 200+. When you posted last night, there were already 316 "votes", not that many more by the time I posted (382).

I'm interested to follow the numbers throughout the rest of the day to see how the percentages change.

Thanks for posting your system, this is really great.

- Jon

 

[taoist]

BBC, Ball St is fast approaching the 70% threshhold...you gonna play So. Car tonight?

Also, Duke has now pulled back to 69%, but I'm assuming that you've already played Ind based on one of your previous posts.

...just curious. Much like SB, I have been keeping track of this thread. This is one interesting system....