Anti-Consensus

[BobbyBlueChip]

I've also never used this system for the NIT. I'm already down on Indiana, so I can't go back now, but 70% really isn't a "magic" number, it's just the one I picked when I started using this system a few years back. I hate playing Indiana because I think that Duke will destroy them, but that's probably why this system works.

 

[superbook]

Also I think the system probably works because you're using the numbers as of midnight the night before the games when (a) ou've got a statistically large enough sample and (b) before the concensus numbers get really confused by line movements.

This suggests to keep doing what you're doing now and don't add or subtract plays based upon what the concensus number does the following day.

FWIW I think 70% is probably a good threshold as arbitrary as it might have been chosen.

- Jon

 

[Stewy]

Bobby if you don't mind.

Bobby if you don't mind.

What is the consensus on UCLA game it seems that everyone is onUCLA but line is moving other way.

 

[superbook]

Missouri 279 50.91% +1.5 Ucla 269 49.09%

 

[superbook]

This system is unbelievable!!!!

BBC :toast:

 

[taoist]

...nice work, bbc.

p.s. So. Car.... :shrug:

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

system record 12-5


Team / Votes / % / line / Team/ Votes/ %
Illinois 99 27.35% +5 Kansas 263 72.65%
Kentucky 87 27.80% +6 Maryland 226 72.20%
Southern Ill 83 27.85% +5 Connecticut 215 72.15%
Texas 100 29.33% +3.5 Oregon 241 70.67%

Friday's Plays
Illinois +5
Kentucky +6
Southern Ill +5
Texas +3.5

Thx for the props, but this system is not infallible (1-3 in its last 4) and have to remember the thing that Superbook said about any sample not being significant until there is 200 items in the population (not sure if that's the number, but it sounds close enough)

 

[superbook]

BBC --

I'm riding your coattails tonight on these four; the only difference is that I got Texas +4.

gl and thanks for sharing your system with us.

- Jon

 

[PerpetualCzech]

I was thinking about this system a bit more today and wanted to bounce something off you all:

I wonder if the stronger plays would involve teams that are in the popular press more? Say Duke, or Gonzaga this year. Theory being that the more exposure a team has to the public, the more distorted the view of the game can be.

Thoughts?

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

system record 14-7

Missouri 42 35.59% +6 Oklahoma 76 64.41%
Kent 88 68.75% +3.5 Indiana 40 31.25%

No plays for Saturday

Czech,
Sorry for the delayed response, but I think that anytime that you have 70% of the people on one side of a line, then it will almost always be a team that is highly regarded with the ESPN crowd. Count Zero is a poster who runs a thread during football season that asks everybody for a system play that they absolutely hate to play. The reasoning is that the worse that your intuition tells you a play is, the more success it should have. The system is hitting roughly 58% over the past three years. The only problem is you have to play Cincinnati and Dallas way too many times. Sure you win more than you lose, but making the call on Sunday morning and saying "Uhhhh.....give me Cincinnati for $200" is pretty much the worse thing I can think of to start a day. Hopefully, we'll get two plays for Sunday, because usually you won't get 70% on one side for the Final Four games.

 

[gardenweasel]

bobby

bobby

i think the info in this thread is absolutely on point...i really think you are confirming what i have thought all along...please consider doing this again next year.i`m absolutely sure that the results will be similar....i firmly believe the linesmakers either know how to shape public perception or can influence the outcome of some of the contests(i know some will disagree)....thanks for the hard work...i look forward to taking advantage of your system next year...

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

system record 14-7


Oregon 103 65.19% +7 Kansas 55 34.81%
Connecticut 112 66.27% +8.5 Maryland 57 33.73%

No plays on Sunday

Looks like everyone is sick of taking the favorites. Good Luck

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

system record 14-7

Team / Votes / % / line / Team/ Votes/ %
1 Indiana 143 31.85% +7 Oklahoma 306 68.15%
3 Maryland 205 48.12% +1.5 Kansas 221 51.88%

No plays for Saturday

Think the consensus will end up at 14-7 as if Oklahoma at this line can't generate a 70%, then it ain't gonna happen.