Somethings up with that Glover 3 ball....several books that offered it in round 1 aren't in R2
Could be a withdrawal....
Could be a withdrawal....
ARNOLD PALMER INVITATIONAL
- Thread starter CANADA MAN
- Start date
2-0-1 yesterday ...profit of 2 units
ROUND 2 MATCHUPS:
G. McNeill over Nathan Green -115 (bet365) LOST
H. Slocum over D. Love III -115 (bet365) LOST
S. O'Hair over R. Pampling -125 (pinnacle) WON
:canada1
ROUND 2 MATCHUPS:
G. McNeill over Nathan Green -115 (bet365) LOST
H. Slocum over D. Love III -115 (bet365) LOST
S. O'Hair over R. Pampling -125 (pinnacle) WON
:canada1
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3rd round at 5 dimes:
Love -105 over Goosen
going to keep playing against Goosen especially while he is always considered the favorite in these type of matchups
Ames -103 over Marino
usually have pretty good luck with Ames, even though he cost me big parlay on meltdown the last couple of holes at Accenture. Marino shot 76 in 3rd round last year in only start here. Ames worst 3rd round has been 73 in 8 tries.
Love -105 over Goosen
going to keep playing against Goosen especially while he is always considered the favorite in these type of matchups
Ames -103 over Marino
usually have pretty good luck with Ames, even though he cost me big parlay on meltdown the last couple of holes at Accenture. Marino shot 76 in 3rd round last year in only start here. Ames worst 3rd round has been 73 in 8 tries.
Round 3 plays (1pt):
Tom Pernice to beat Camilo Villegas -102 @ Five Dimes
I don't make Villegas the favourite in this match. Pernice is coming off a top-10 finish last week, he has a top-10 finish on this course in this last two years whereas Villegas has finished 59th and 61st and he also has a 6-1-1 h2h lead over him in the 3rd round over the last 12 months
Vaughn Taylor to beat Nick Watney -125 @ Carib [-128 @ Five Dimes]
Both in very good positions at the cut, but I'm expecting Taylor to maintain that position as he did last year when finishing 3rd (Watney has a poor history on this course). Plus, they have both been in these exact positions already this year and responded very differently in the 3rd round: Taylor was 4 shots off the lead and shot 71 in the Northern Trust Open to remain 4 shots back; Watney was 5 shots off the lead and shot 77 in the PODS Championship to fall to 11 shots back and 62nd place
Sergio Garcia to beat Niclas Fasth -127 @ Pinnacle
Attractive odds when Garcia is a best-price -121 with ties lose. Maybe the state of the greens are helping Garcia this week, but he ranks 2nd in scrambling over the two rounds. And for all his putting woes, he is still a good player to back when in contention. He has started the 3rd round of a PGA Tour event in the top-10 on 29 occasions, finished the round outside the top-10 only seven times and averaged 69.8 in the 3rd round. In terms of only needing to beat Fasth today, his Swedish opponent has never shot a lower 3rd round than him on the PGA Tour
Tom Pernice to beat Camilo Villegas -102 @ Five Dimes
I don't make Villegas the favourite in this match. Pernice is coming off a top-10 finish last week, he has a top-10 finish on this course in this last two years whereas Villegas has finished 59th and 61st and he also has a 6-1-1 h2h lead over him in the 3rd round over the last 12 months
Vaughn Taylor to beat Nick Watney -125 @ Carib [-128 @ Five Dimes]
Both in very good positions at the cut, but I'm expecting Taylor to maintain that position as he did last year when finishing 3rd (Watney has a poor history on this course). Plus, they have both been in these exact positions already this year and responded very differently in the 3rd round: Taylor was 4 shots off the lead and shot 71 in the Northern Trust Open to remain 4 shots back; Watney was 5 shots off the lead and shot 77 in the PODS Championship to fall to 11 shots back and 62nd place
Sergio Garcia to beat Niclas Fasth -127 @ Pinnacle
Attractive odds when Garcia is a best-price -121 with ties lose. Maybe the state of the greens are helping Garcia this week, but he ranks 2nd in scrambling over the two rounds. And for all his putting woes, he is still a good player to back when in contention. He has started the 3rd round of a PGA Tour event in the top-10 on 29 occasions, finished the round outside the top-10 only seven times and averaged 69.8 in the 3rd round. In terms of only needing to beat Fasth today, his Swedish opponent has never shot a lower 3rd round than him on the PGA Tour
1-2 yesterday ...loss of 1.30 units
3-2-1 this week ...profit of 0.70 units
ROUND 3 MATCHUPS: (pinnacle)
A. Cejka over T. Immelman +107 WON
C. Pettersson over L. Westwood +103 LOST
V. Singh over J. Furyk -113 PUSH
:canada1
3-2-1 this week ...profit of 0.70 units
ROUND 3 MATCHUPS: (pinnacle)
A. Cejka over T. Immelman +107 WON
C. Pettersson over L. Westwood +103 LOST
V. Singh over J. Furyk -113 PUSH
:canada1
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I don't know why I even bet matchups with Nick Watney. This guy is the streakiest player i've ever seen. I'm 0-5 in single round matchups this season with him, and I go against him today with Vaughn Taylor and Watney hits par puts from 11, 12, and 15 on consecutive holes already, not to mention a 3 foot kick in eagle putt :mj07: :mj07: :mj07: :shrug: :shrug:
Arnold Palmer Invitational
4th Round Matchups
T. Woods vs S. O'Hair
723. T. Woods -270
While -270 is a bunch- with previous field vs tig wager really can only lose -170 net which I think is high but very decent value for tig vs ohair-especially being paired together--
Can win both wagers but can only lose one.
4th Round Matchups
T. Woods vs S. O'Hair
723. T. Woods -270
While -270 is a bunch- with previous field vs tig wager really can only lose -170 net which I think is high but very decent value for tig vs ohair-especially being paired together--
Can win both wagers but can only lose one.
can't really find any matchups I like,so going to try something with little risk and I think has a little value. Always going to get better than legit odds when betting something invovlving going against Tiger. I don't think Tiger can win every week he is in contention, so if he doesn't who will? Eliminating O'Hair since his odds aren't long enough, playing with Tiger has to increase the pressure and probably will not win back to back. Ended up trying Bubba and Mahan who are both 20-1 at 5 dimes. GL
Round 4 plays (1pt):
Bart Bryant to beat Sean O'Hair -105 @ Five Dimes
Bart Bryant to beat Bubba Watson -130 @ Unibet and Carib
Bart Bryant to beat Hunter Mahan -115 @ Bet365
Not a deliberate intention to back only one player in this round, but these were the three plays that had the greatest edge given by my calculation of probabilities and those given by the odds and I don't see any reason to drop any of these 'system plays'. Bryant has the ideal draw for the tournament leader in that he is in the penultimate group and he is not paired with Tiger Woods (like O'Hair ... so I can't see any reason for O'Hair being the favourite in that match). Let's look at Bryant's record when leading a PGA Tour event with one round to play: in the 2004 Texas Open, he held a 3-shot lead over Hunter Mahan and shot 67 to win by 3 shots; in the 2005 Memorial Tournament, he shared the lead with David Toms, Fred Couples and Jeff Sluman (Tiger Woods was 4 shots back), shot 68 and won by one shot; in the 2005 Tour Championship, he held a 3-shot lead over Retief Goosen (Tiger Woods was a shot further back), shot 67 and won by six shots. Not only did he win on all three occasions, but his lead over the field was never reduced and in two of those three occasions, Tiger Woods was very much in contention and his lead over Woods was also never reduced after the 4th round. Compare that to O'Hair - he has finished 2nd (2005 Byron Nelson Championship) and 11th (2007 Players Championship) when holding the 3rd round lead - and Watson - he finished 2nd (2007 Houston Open) despite holding a 3-shot lead - and there is no compaison to be made. Mahan may pose the bigger threat, but given that his four previous appearances on this course have yielded finishes of 62nd, mc, 59th, mc, whereas Bryant has finished 8th, 20th and 18th, I'm much more confident that Bryant's form this week will continue for another day on this course
Bart Bryant to beat Sean O'Hair -105 @ Five Dimes
Bart Bryant to beat Bubba Watson -130 @ Unibet and Carib
Bart Bryant to beat Hunter Mahan -115 @ Bet365
Not a deliberate intention to back only one player in this round, but these were the three plays that had the greatest edge given by my calculation of probabilities and those given by the odds and I don't see any reason to drop any of these 'system plays'. Bryant has the ideal draw for the tournament leader in that he is in the penultimate group and he is not paired with Tiger Woods (like O'Hair ... so I can't see any reason for O'Hair being the favourite in that match). Let's look at Bryant's record when leading a PGA Tour event with one round to play: in the 2004 Texas Open, he held a 3-shot lead over Hunter Mahan and shot 67 to win by 3 shots; in the 2005 Memorial Tournament, he shared the lead with David Toms, Fred Couples and Jeff Sluman (Tiger Woods was 4 shots back), shot 68 and won by one shot; in the 2005 Tour Championship, he held a 3-shot lead over Retief Goosen (Tiger Woods was a shot further back), shot 67 and won by six shots. Not only did he win on all three occasions, but his lead over the field was never reduced and in two of those three occasions, Tiger Woods was very much in contention and his lead over Woods was also never reduced after the 4th round. Compare that to O'Hair - he has finished 2nd (2005 Byron Nelson Championship) and 11th (2007 Players Championship) when holding the 3rd round lead - and Watson - he finished 2nd (2007 Houston Open) despite holding a 3-shot lead - and there is no compaison to be made. Mahan may pose the bigger threat, but given that his four previous appearances on this course have yielded finishes of 62nd, mc, 59th, mc, whereas Bryant has finished 8th, 20th and 18th, I'm much more confident that Bryant's form this week will continue for another day on this course
1-1-1 yesterday ...profit of 0.07 units
4-4-2 this week ...loss of 0.48 units (lost my 72 hole matchup as Appleby missed the cut)
ROUND 4 MATCHUPS: (pinnacle)
J. Furyk over C. Pettersson -134 LOST
V. Singh over H. Mahan -145 PUSH
B. Bryant over B. Watson -134 WON
:canada1
4-4-2 this week ...loss of 0.48 units (lost my 72 hole matchup as Appleby missed the cut)
ROUND 4 MATCHUPS: (pinnacle)
J. Furyk over C. Pettersson -134 LOST
V. Singh over H. Mahan -145 PUSH
B. Bryant over B. Watson -134 WON
:canada1
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...this prop bet is still available at Pinnacle until 12 pm e.s.t. I'm all over it!!!!
Proposition/Future
Selection 1: Golf
Arnold Palmer Invitational
Odds to win Tournament
Will T. Woods Win Arnold Palmer Invitational?
51. Yes -116
Risking 116.00 to Win 100.00 CAD WON
How can you not take this bet? :shrug:
:canada1
Proposition/Future
Selection 1: Golf
Arnold Palmer Invitational
Odds to win Tournament
Will T. Woods Win Arnold Palmer Invitational?
51. Yes -116
Risking 116.00 to Win 100.00 CAD WON
How can you not take this bet? :shrug:
:canada1
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Hey Sharky - You can get that same bet at pinnacle with a much better payout of +127.
I think you use pinnacle also so I thought I'd mention it. Good Luck today.
:canada1
I think you use pinnacle also so I thought I'd mention it. Good Luck today.
:canada1
